Past alcohol consumption and incident atrial fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BackgroundAlthough current alcohol consumption is a risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF), the more clinically relevant question may be whether alcohol cessation is associated with a reduced risk.Methods and resultsWe studied participants enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) between 1987 and 1989 without prevalent AF. Past and current alcohol consumption were ascertained at baseline and at 3 subsequent visits. Incident AF was ascertained via study ECGs, hospital discharge ICD-9 codes, and death certificates. Of 15,222 participants, 2,886 (19.0%) were former drinkers. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, there were 1,631 cases of incident AF, 370 occurring in former consumers. Former drinkers had a higher rate of AF compared to lifetime abstainers and current drinkers. After adjustment for potential confounders, every decade abstinent from alcohol was associated with an approximate 20% (95% CI 11-28%) lower rate of incident AF; every additional decade of past alcohol consumption was associated with a 13% (95% CI 3-25%) higher rate of AF; and every additional drink per day during former drinking was associated with a 4% (95% CI 0-8%) higher rate of AF.ConclusionsAmong former drinkers, the number of years of drinking and the amount of alcohol consumed may each confer an increased risk of AF. Given that a longer duration of abstinence was associated with a decreased risk of AF, earlier modification of alcohol use may have a greater influence on AF prevention

NT -pro BNP as a Mediator of the Racial Difference in Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure.

Background Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure ( CHF ). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT -pro BNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF , and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences. Methods and Results We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT -pro BNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT -pro BNP . The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT -pro BNP ( CHS : 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI , 29-53; ARIC : 39% higher; 95% CI , 33-46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks ( CHS : adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI , 1.31-1.93; ARIC : hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI , 1.57-2.27). NT -pro BNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk ( CHS : 36.2%; 95% CI , 23.2-69.2%; ARIC : 24.6%; 95% CI , 14.8-39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI , 1.05-1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI , 0.94-1.23), CHF -related mediation analyses were not performed. Conclusions A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT -pro BNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed

Los modelos DSGE: una respuesta de la discusión macroeconómica

Models of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) are based on the theory of general equilibrium that influences contemporary macroeconomics. This instrument explains the aggregate economic phenomena derived from microeconomic principles, and, as a special characteristic, the DSGE models are not vulnerable to the Lucas critique. Also, those consider that the economy is affected by random shocks. In this sense, empirical analysis seeks for the sources of economic fluctuations. This paper presents an overview of the theoretical literature on economic fluctuations in order to reflect on the development of modern macroeconomics, the reflection culminating with an overview of the DSGE.Los modelos de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE), parten de la teoría de equilibrio general aplicado que tiene influencia en la macroeconomía contemporánea. Su metodología explica los fenómenos económicos agregados, derivados de los principios microeconómicos y, como elemento especial se tiene que no son vulnerables a la crítica de Lucas. Además, toman en cuenta que la economía se ve afectada por perturbaciones aleatorias. En esta dirección, su análisis de tipo empírico apunta hacia la búsqueda de los elementos generadores de las fluctuaciones económicas. En este trabajo se presenta una revisión de literatura sobre la discusión teórica de las fluctuaciones económicas, con el fin de reflexionar acerca del desarrollo de la macroeconomía moderna, culminando dicha reflexión con un una reseña de los DSGE

Asymptotic Resource Usage Bounds

When describing the resource usage of a program, it is usual to talk in asymptotic terms, such as the well-known “big O” notation, whereby we focus on the behaviour of the program for large input data and make a rough approximation by considering as equivalent programs whose resource usage grows at the same rate. Motivated by the existence of non-asymptotic resource usage analyzers, in this paper, we develop a novel transformation from a non-asymptotic cost function (which can be produced by multiple resource analyzers) into its asymptotic form. Our transformation aims at producing tight asymptotic forms which do not contain redundant subexpressions (i.e., expressions asymptotically subsumed by others). Interestingly, we integrate our transformation at the heart of a cost analyzer to generate asymptotic upper bounds without having to first compute their non-asymptotic counterparts. Our experimental results show that, while non-asymptotic cost functions become very complex, their asymptotic forms are much more compact and manageable. This is essential to improve scalability and to enable the application of cost analysis in resource-aware verification/certification

Incidence of Hypertension in a Cohort of Spanish University Graduates:The SUN Study

Hypertension is a major public health problem. However, no estimates of age- and sex-specific incidences are available for the Spanish population. Our objective was to estimate the incidence of hypertension in a cohort of university graduates in Spain. We followed up 5648 individuals aged 25-65 years who were initially free of hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease for a median of 30 months. New diagnoses of hypertension were identified using mailed questionnaires. We validated the self-reported diagnosis of hypertension. In 18 250 person-years of follow-up, we identified 248 new cases of hypertension. The unadjusted incidences of hypertension in women and men were 8.2 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 6.7-10.1) and 21.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 18.6-25.4), respectively. The cumulative probability of receiving a medical diagnosis of hypertension by the age of 65 years was 50% among women and 72% among men. In conclusion, we have provided new evidence confirming that hypertension is one of the most important public health problems in Spain

Ectopy on a single 12‐lead ECG, incident cardiac myopathy, and death in the community

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation and heart failure are 2 of the most common diseases, yet ready means to identify individuals at risk are lacking. The 12-lead ECG is one of the most accessible tests in medicine. Our objective was to determine whether a premature atrial contraction observed on a standard 12-lead ECG would predict atrial fibrillation and mortality and whether a premature ventricular contraction would predict heart failure and mortality.Methods and resultsWe utilized the CHS (Cardiovascular Health) Study, which followed 5577 participants for a median of 12 years, as the primary cohort. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study), the replication cohort, captured data from 15 792 participants over a median of 22 years. In the CHS, multivariable analyses revealed that a baseline 12-lead ECG premature atrial contraction predicted a 60% increased risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0; P<0.001) and a premature ventricular contraction predicted a 30% increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6; P=0.021). In the negative control analyses, neither predicted incident myocardial infarction. A premature atrial contraction was associated with a 30% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P=0.008) and a premature ventricular contraction was associated with a 20% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.044). Similarly statistically significant results for each analysis were also observed in ARIC.ConclusionsBased on a single standard ECG, a premature atrial contraction predicted incident atrial fibrillation and death and a premature ventricular contraction predicted incident heart failure and death, suggesting that this commonly used test may predict future disease

Differential effects of motor cortical excitability and plasticity in young and old individuals: a Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) study

Aging is associated with changes in the motor system that, over time, can lead to functional impairments and contribute negatively to the ability to recover after brain damage. Unfortunately, there are still many questions surrounding the physiological mechanisms underlying these impairments. We examined cortico-spinal excitability and plasticity in a young cohort (age range: 19–31) and an elderly cohort (age range: 47–73) of healthy right-handed individuals using navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS). Subjects were evaluated with a combination of physiological [motor evoked potentials (MEPs), motor threshold (MT), intracortical inhibition (ICI), intracortical facilitation (ICF), and silent period (SP)] and behavioral [reaction time (RT), pinch force, 9 hole peg task (HPT)] measures at baseline and following one session of low-frequency (1 Hz) navigated repetitive TMS (rTMS) to the right (non-dominant) hemisphere. In the young cohort, the inhibitory effect of 1 Hz rTMS was significantly in the right hemisphere and a significant facilitatory effect was noted in the unstimulated hemisphere. Conversely, in the elderly cohort, we report only a trend toward a facilitatory effect in the unstimulated hemisphere, suggesting reduced cortical plasticity and interhemispheric communication. To this effect, we show that significant differences in hemispheric cortico-spinal excitability were present in the elderly cohort at baseline, with significantly reduced cortico-spinal excitability in the right hemisphere as compared to the left hemisphere. A correlation analysis revealed no significant relationship between cortical thickness of the selected region of interest (ROI) and MEPs in either young or old subjects prior to and following rTMS. When combined with our preliminary results, further research into this topic could lead to the development of neurophysiological markers pertinent to the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of neurological diseases characterized by monohemispheric damage and lateralized motor deficits