An approach to trial design and analysis in the era of non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect

Background: Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed and analysed under the proportional hazards assumption, with a target hazard ratio for the treatment effect in mind. However, the hazards may be non-proportional. We address how to design a trial under such conditions, and how to analyse the results. Methods: We propose to extend the usual approach, a logrank test, to also include the Grambsch-Therneau test of proportional hazards. We test the resulting composite null hypothesis using a joint test for the hazard ratio and for time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We compute the power and sample size for the logrank test under proportional hazards, and from that we compute the power of the joint test. For the estimation of relevant quantities from the trial data, various models could be used; we advocate adopting a pre-specified flexible parametric survival model that supports time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. Results: We present the mathematics for calculating the power and sample size for the joint test. We illustrate the methodology in real data from two randomized trials, one in ovarian cancer and the other in treating cellulitis. We show selected estimates and their uncertainty derived from the advocated flexible parametric model. We demonstrate in a small simulation study that when a treatment effect either increases or decreases over time, the joint test can outperform the logrank test in the presence of both patterns of non-proportional hazards. Conclusions: Those designing and analysing trials in the era of non-proportional hazards need to acknowledge that a more complex type of treatment effect is becoming more common. Our method for the design of the trial retains the tools familiar in the standard methodology based on the logrank test, and extends it to incorporate a joint test of the null hypothesis with power against non-proportional hazards. For the analysis of trial data, we propose the use of a pre-specified flexible parametric model that can represent a time-dependent hazard ratio if one is present

A synthetic growth switch based on controlled expression of RNA polymerase

International audienceThe ability to control growth is essential for fundamental studies of bacterial physiology and biotechnological applications. We have engineered an Escherichia coli strain in which the transcription of a key component of the gene expression machinery, RNA polymerase, is under the control of an inducible promoter. By changing the inducer concentration in the medium, we can adjust the RNA polymerase concentration and thereby switch bacterial growth between zero and the maximal growth rate supported by the medium. We show that our synthetic growth switch functions in a medium-independent and reversible way, and we provide evidence that the switching phenotype arises from the ultrasensitive response of the growth rate to the concentration of RNA polymerase. We present an application of the growth switch in which both the wild-type E. coli strain and our modified strain are endowed with the capacity to produce glycerol when growing on glucose. Cells in which growth has been switched off continue to be metabolically active and harness the energy gain to produce glycerol at a twofold higher yield than in cells with natural control of RNA polymerase expression. Remarkably, without any further optimization, the improved yield is close to the theoretical maximum computed from a flux balance model of E. coli metabolism. The proposed synthetic growth switch is a promising tool for gaining a better understanding of bacterial physiology and for applications in synthetic biology and biotechnology

The impact of point mutations in the human androgen receptor : classification of mutations on the basis of transcriptional activity

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Microbial catabolic activities are naturally selected by metabolic energy harvest rate

The fundamental trade-off between yield and rate of energy harvest per unit of substrate has been largely discussed as a main characteristic for microbial established cooperation or competition. In this study, this point is addressed by developing a generalized model that simulates competition between existing and not experimentally reported microbial catabolic activities defined only based on well-known biochemical pathways. No specific microbial physiological adaptations are considered, growth yield is calculated coupled to catabolism energetics and a common maximum biomass-specific catabolism rate (expressed as electron transfer rate) is assumed for all microbial groups. Under this approach, successful microbial metabolisms are predicted in line with experimental observations under the hypothesis of maximum energy harvest rate. Two microbial ecosystems, typically found in wastewater treatment plants, are simulated, namely: (i) the anaerobic fermentation of glucose and (ii) the oxidation and reduction of nitrogen under aerobic autotrophic (nitrification) and anoxic heterotrophic and autotrophic (denitrification) conditions. The experimentally observed cross feeding in glucose fermentation, through multiple intermediate fermentation pathways, towards ultimately methane and carbon dioxide is predicted. Analogously, two-stage nitrification (by ammonium and nitrite oxidizers) is predicted as prevailing over nitrification in one stage. Conversely, denitrification is predicted in one stage (by denitrifiers) as well as anammox (anaerobic ammonium oxidation). The model results suggest that these observations are a direct consequence of the different energy yields per electron transferred at the different steps of the pathways. Overall, our results theoretically support the hypothesis that successful microbial catabolic activities are selected by an overall maximum energy harvest rate

A copula model for marked point processes

The final publication (Diao, Liqun, Richard J. Cook, and Ker-Ai Lee. (2013) A copula model for marked point processes. Lifetime Data Analysis, 19(4): 463-489) is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10985-013-9259-3Many chronic diseases feature recurring clinically important events. In addition, however, there often exists a random variable which is realized upon the occurrence of each event reflecting the severity of the event, a cost associated with it, or possibly a short term response indicating the effect of a therapeutic intervention. We describe a novel model for a marked point process which incorporates a dependence between continuous marks and the event process through the use of a copula function. The copula formulation ensures that event times can be modeled by any intensity function for point processes, and any multivariate model can be specified for the continuous marks. The relative efficiency of joint versus separate analyses of the event times and the marks is examined through simulation under random censoring. An application to data from a recent trial in transfusion medicine is given for illustration.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN 155849); Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRN 13887); Canada Research Chair (Tier 1) – CIHR funded (950-226626

Cardiorespiratory fitness predicts clustered cardiometabolic risk in 10-11.9 year olds

The aim of this study was to investigate levels of clustered cardiometabolic risk and the odds of being ‘at risk’ according to cardiorespiratory fitness status in children. Data from 88 10–11.9-year-old children (mean age 11.05 ± 0.51 years), who participated in either the REACH Year 6 or the Benefits of Fitness Circuits for Primary School Populations studies were combined. Waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, adiponectin and C-reactive protein were assessed and used to estimate clustered cardiometabolic risk. Participants were classified as ‘fit’ or ‘unfit’ using recently published definitions (46.6 and 41.9 mL/kg/min for boys and girls, respectively), and continuous clustered risk scores between fitness groups were assessed. Participants were subsequently assigned to a ‘normal’ or ‘high’ clustered cardiometabolic risk group based on risk scores, and logistic regression analysis assessed the odds of belonging to the increased cardiometabolic risk group according to fitness. The unfit group exhibited significantly higher clustered cardiometabolic risk scores (p < 0.001) than the fit group. A clear association between fitness group and being at increased cardiometabolic risk (B = 2.509, p = 0.001) was also identified, and participants classed as being unfit were found to have odds of being classified as ‘at risk’ of 12.30 (95 % CI = 2.64–57.33).\ud \ud Conclusion Assessing cardiorespiratory fitness is a valid method of identifying children most at risk of cardiometabolic pathologies. The ROC thresholds could be used to identify populations of children most at risk and may therefore be used to effectively target a cardiometabolic risk-reducing public health intervention

Immune-Complex Mimics as a Molecular Platform for Adjuvant-Free Vaccine Delivery

Protein-based vaccine development faces the difficult challenge of finding robust yet non-toxic adjuvants suitable for humans. Here, using a molecular engineering approach, we have developed a molecular platform for generating self-adjuvanting immunogens that do not depend on exogenous adjuvants for induction of immune responses. These are based on the concept of Immune Complex Mimics (ICM), structures that are formed between an oligomeric antigen and a monoclonal antibody (mAb) to that antigen. In this way, the roles of antigens and antibodies within the structure of immune complexes are reversed, so that a single monoclonal antibody, rather than polyclonal sera or expensive mAb cocktails can be used. We tested this approach in the context of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection by linking the highly immunogenic and potentially protective Ag85B with the oligomeric Acr (alpha crystallin, HspX) antigen. When combined with an anti-Acr monoclonal antibody, the fusion protein formed ICM which bound to C1q component of the complement system and were readily taken up by antigen-presenting cells in vitro. ICM induced a strong Th1/Th2 mixed type antibody response, which was comparable to cholera toxin adjuvanted antigen, but only moderate levels of T cell proliferation and IFN-γ secretion. Unfortunately, the systemic administration of ICM did not confer statistically significant protection against intranasal MTB challenge, although a small BCG-boosting effect was observed. We conclude that ICM are capable of inducing strong humoral responses to incorporated antigens and may be a suitable vaccination approach for pathogens other than MTB, where antibody-based immunity may play a more protective role

Test-retest repeatability of child's respiratory symptoms and perceived indoor air quality - comparing self-and parent-administered questionnaires

Background: Questionnaires can be used to assess perceived indoor air quality and symptoms in schools. Questionnaires for primary school aged children have traditionally been parent-administered, but self-administered questionnaires would be easier to administer and may yield as good, if not better, information. Our aim was to compare the repeatability of self- and parent-administered indoor air questionnaires designed for primary school aged pupils. Methods: Indoor air questionnaire with questions on child's symptoms and perceived indoor air quality in schools was sent to parents of pupils aged 7-12 years in two schools and again after two weeks. Slightly modified version of the questionnaire was administered to pupils aged 9-12 years in another two schools and repeated after a week. 351 (52%) parents and 319 pupils (86%) answered both the first and the second questionnaire. Test-retest repeatability was assessed with intra-class correlation (ICC) and Cohen's kappa coefficients (k). Results: Test-retest repeatability was generally between 0.4-0.7 (ICC; k) in both self-and parent-administered questionnaire. In majority of the questions on symptoms and perceived indoor air quality test-retest repeatability was at the same level or slightly better in self-administered compared to parent-administered questionnaire. Agreement of self-and parent administered questionnaires was generally <0.4 (ICC; k) in reported symptoms and 0.4-0.6 (ICC; k) in perceived indoor air quality. Conclusions: Children aged 9-12 years can give as, or even more, repeatable information about their respiratory symptoms and perceived indoor air quality than their parents. Therefore, it may be possible to use self-administered questionnaires in future studies also with children.Peer reviewe

Fleming's penicillin producing streain is not Penicillium chrysogenum but P. rubens

Penicillium chrysogenum is a commonly occurring mould in indoor environments and foods, and has gained much attention for its use in the production of the antibiotic penicillin. Phylogenetic analysis of the most important penicillin producing P. chrysogenum isolates revealed the presence of two highly supported clades, and we show here that these two clades represent two species, P. chrysogenum and P. rubens. These species are phenotypically similar, but extrolite analysis shows that P. chrysogenum produces secalonic acid D and F and/or a metabolite related to lumpidin, while P. rubens does not produce these metabolites. Fleming’s original penicillin producing strain and the full genome sequenced strain of P. chrysogenum are re-identified as P. rubens. Furthermore, the well-known claim that Alexander Fleming misidentified the original penicillin producing strain as P. rubrum is discussed

Asteroseismology and Interferometry

Asteroseismology provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Recent developments, including the first systematic studies of solar-like pulsators, have boosted the impact of this field of research within Astrophysics and have led to a significant increase in the size of the research community. In the present paper we start by reviewing the basic observational and theoretical properties of classical and solar-like pulsators and present results from some of the most recent and outstanding studies of these stars. We centre our review on those classes of pulsators for which interferometric studies are expected to provide a significant input. We discuss current limitations to asteroseismic studies, including difficulties in mode identification and in the accurate determination of global parameters of pulsating stars, and, after a brief review of those aspects of interferometry that are most relevant in this context, anticipate how interferometric observations may contribute to overcome these limitations. Moreover, we present results of recent pilot studies of pulsating stars involving both asteroseismic and interferometric constraints and look into the future, summarizing ongoing efforts concerning the development of future instruments and satellite missions which are expected to have an impact in this field of research.Comment: Version as published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, Volume 14, Issue 3-4, pp. 217-36