Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Markov chain aggregation and its application to rule-based modelling

Rule-based modelling allows to represent molecular interactions in a compact and natural way. The underlying molecular dynamics, by the laws of stochastic chemical kinetics, behaves as a continuous-time Markov chain. However, this Markov chain enumerates all possible reaction mixtures, rendering the analysis of the chain computationally demanding and often prohibitive in practice. We here describe how it is possible to efficiently find a smaller, aggregate chain, which preserves certain properties of the original one. Formal methods and lumpability notions are used to define algorithms for automated and efficient construction of such smaller chains (without ever constructing the original ones). We here illustrate the method on an example and we discuss the applicability of the method in the context of modelling large signalling pathways

From Rotating Atomic Rings to Quantum Hall States

Considerable efforts are currently devoted to the preparation of ultracold neutral atoms in the emblematic strongly correlated quantum Hall regime. The routes followed so far essentially rely on thermodynamics, i.e. imposing the proper Hamiltonian and cooling the system towards its ground state. In rapidly rotating 2D harmonic traps the role of the transverse magnetic field is played by the angular velocity. For particle numbers significantly larger than unity, the required angular momentum is very large and it can be obtained only for spinning frequencies extremely near to the deconfinement limit; consequently, the required control on experimental parameters turns out to be far too stringent. Here we propose to follow instead a dynamic path starting from the gas confined in a rotating ring. The large moment of inertia of the fluid facilitates the access to states with a large angular momentum, corresponding to a giant vortex. The initial ring-shaped trapping potential is then adiabatically transformed into a harmonic confinement, which brings the interacting atomic gas in the desired quantum Hall regime. We provide clear numerical evidence that for a relatively broad range of initial angular frequencies, the giant vortex state is adiabatically connected to the bosonic $\nu=1/2$ Laughlin state, and we discuss the scaling to many particles.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

The role of parental achievement goals in predicting autonomy-supportive and controlling parenting

Although autonomy-supportive and controlling parenting are linked to numerous positive and negative child outcomes respectively, fewer studies have focused on their determinants. Drawing on achievement goal theory and self-determination theory, we propose that parental achievement goals (i.e., achievement goals that parents have for their children) can be mastery, performance-approach or performance-avoidance oriented and that types of goals predict mothers' tendency to adopt autonomy-supportive and controlling behaviors. A total of 67 mothers (aged 30-53 years) reported their goals for their adolescent (aged 13-16 years; 19.4 % girls), while their adolescent evaluated their mothers' behaviors. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that parental performance-approach goals predict more controlling parenting and prevent acknowledgement of feelings, one autonomy-supportive behavior. In addition, mothers who have mastery goals and who endorse performance-avoidance goals are less likely to use guilt-inducing criticisms. These findings were observed while controlling for the effect of maternal anxiety

Go-stimuli proportion influences response strategy in a sustained attention to response task

The sustained attention to response task (SART) usefulness as a measure of sustained attention has been questioned. The SART may instead be a better measure of other psychological processes and could prove useful in understanding some real-world behaviours. Thirty participants completed four Go/No-Go response tasks much like the SART, with Go-stimuli proportions of .50, .65, .80 and .95. As Go-stimuli proportion increased, reaction times decreased while both commission errors and self-reported task-related thoughts increased. Performance measures were associated with task-related thoughts but not taskunrelated thoughts. Instead of faster reaction times and increased commission errors being due to absentmindedness or perceptual decoupling from the task, the results suggested participants made use of two competing response strategies, in line with a response strategy or response inhibition perspective of SART performance. Interestingly, performance measures changed in a nonlinear manner, despite the linear Go proportion increase. A threshold may exist where the prepotent motor response becomes more pronounced, leading to the disproportionate increase in response speed and commission errors. This research has implications for researchers looking to employ the SAR

Quantum simulation of the wavefunction to probe frustrated Heisenberg spin systems

Quantum simulators are controllable quantum systems that can reproduce the dynamics of the system of interest, which are unfeasible for classical computers. Recent developments in quantum technology enable the precise control of individual quantum particles as required for studying complex quantum systems. Particularly, quantum simulators capable of simulating frustrated Heisenberg spin systems provide platforms for understanding exotic matter such as high-temperature superconductors. Here we report the analog quantum simulation of the ground-state wavefunction to probe arbitrary Heisenberg-type interactions among four spin-1/2 particles . Depending on the interaction strength, frustration within the system emerges such that the ground state evolves from a localized to a resonating valence-bond state. This spin-1/2 tetramer is created using the polarization states of four photons. The single-particle addressability and tunable measurement-induced interactions provide us insights into entanglement dynamics among individual particles. We directly extract ground-state energies and pair-wise quantum correlations to observe the monogamy of entanglement

Mechanical Systems with Symmetry, Variational Principles, and Integration Algorithms

This paper studies variational principles for mechanical systems with symmetry and their applications to integration algorithms. We recall some general features of how to reduce variational principles in the presence of a symmetry group along with general features of integration algorithms for mechanical systems. Then we describe some integration algorithms based directly on variational principles using a discretization technique of Veselov. The general idea for these variational integrators is to directly discretize Hamilton’s principle rather than the equations of motion in a way that preserves the original systems invariants, notably the symplectic form and, via a discrete version of Noether’s theorem, the momentum map. The resulting mechanical integrators are second-order accurate, implicit, symplectic-momentum algorithms. We apply these integrators to the rigid body and the double spherical pendulum to show that the techniques are competitive with existing integrators

Quantum Simulation of Antiferromagnetic Spin Chains in an Optical Lattice

Understanding exotic forms of magnetism in quantum mechanical systems is a central goal of modern condensed matter physics, with implications from high temperature superconductors to spintronic devices. Simulating magnetic materials in the vicinity of a quantum phase transition is computationally intractable on classical computers due to the extreme complexity arising from quantum entanglement between the constituent magnetic spins. Here we employ a degenerate Bose gas confined in an optical lattice to simulate a chain of interacting quantum Ising spins as they undergo a phase transition. Strong spin interactions are achieved through a site-occupation to pseudo-spin mapping. As we vary an applied field, quantum fluctuations drive a phase transition from a paramagnetic phase into an antiferromagnetic phase. In the paramagnetic phase the interaction between the spins is overwhelmed by the applied field which aligns the spins. In the antiferromagnetic phase the interaction dominates and produces staggered magnetic ordering. Magnetic domain formation is observed through both in-situ site-resolved imaging and noise correlation measurements. By demonstrating a route to quantum magnetism in an optical lattice, this work should facilitate further investigations of magnetic models using ultracold atoms, improving our understanding of real magnetic materials.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

Testing the cognitive-behavioural maintenance models across DSM-5 bulimic-type eating disorder diagnostic groups: A multi-centre study

The original cognitive-behavioural (CB) model of bulimia nervosa, which provided the basis for the widely used CB therapy, proposed that specific dysfunctional cognitions and behaviours maintain the disorder. However, amongst treatment completers, only 40–50 % have a full and lasting response. The enhanced CB model (CB-E), upon which the enhanced version of the CB treatment was based, extended the original approach by including four additional maintenance factors. This study evaluated and compared both CB models in a large clinical treatment seeking sample (N = 679), applying both DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria for bulimic-type eating disorders. Application of the DSM-5 criteria reduced the number of cases of DSM-IV bulimic-type eating disorders not otherwise specified to 29.6 %. Structural equation modelling analysis indicated that (a) although both models provided a good fit to the data, the CB-E model accounted for a greater proportion of variance in eating-disordered behaviours than the original one, (b) interpersonal problems, clinical perfectionism and low self-esteem were indirectly associated with dietary restraint through over-evaluation of shape and weight, (c) interpersonal problems and mood intolerance were directly linked to binge eating, whereas restraint only indirectly affected binge eating through mood intolerance, suggesting that factors other than restraint may play a more critical role in the maintenance of binge eating. In terms of strength of the associations, differences across DSM-5 bulimic-type eating disorder diagnostic groups were not observed. The results are discussed with reference to theory and research, including neurobiological findings and recent hypotheses

Response characteristics in the apex of the gerbil cochlea studied through auditory nerve recordings

In this study, we analyze the processing of low-frequency sounds in the cochlear apex through responses of auditory nerve fibers (ANFs) that innervate the apex. Single tones and irregularly spaced tone complexes were used to evoke ANF responses in Mongolian gerbil. The spike arrival times were analyzed in terms of phase locking, peripheral frequency selectivity, group delays, and the nonlinear effects of sound pressure level (SPL). Phase locking to single tones was similar to that in cat. Vector strength was maximal for stimulus frequencies around 500 Hz, decreased above 1 kHz, and became insignificant above 4 to 5 kHz. We used the responses to tone complexes to determine amplitude and phase curves of ANFs having a characteristic frequency (CF) below 5 kHz. With increasing CF, amplitude curves gradually changed from broadly tuned and asymmetric with a steep low-frequency flank to more sharply tuned and asymmetric with a steep high-frequency flank. Over the same CF range, phase curves gradually changed from a concave-upward shape to a concave-downward shape. Phase curves consisted of two or three approximately straight segments. Group delay was analyzed separately for these segments. Generally, the largest group delay was observed near CF. With increasing SPL, most amplitude curves broadened, sometimes accompanied by a downward shift of best frequency, and group delay changed along the entire range of stimulus frequencies. We observed considerable across-ANF variation in the effects of SPL on both amplitude and phase. Overall, our data suggest that mechanical responses in the apex of the cochlea are considerably nonlinear and that these nonlinearities are of a different character than those known from the base of the cochlea