Inattentive professional forecasters

We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even when updating; and (v) differ in their frequency of updating and forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations are formed by inattentive agents. However building and estimating an expectation model that features two types of inattention, namely sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis and noisy information à la Sims, we cannot quantitatively generate the error and disagreement that are observed in the SPF data. The rejection is mainly due to the fact that professionals relatively agree on very sluggish forecasts.imperfect information, inattention, forecast errors, disagreement, business cycle.

Développement territorial en Amazonie : défis et enjeux

International audienceAprès à peine vingt ans, le modèle de « mise en valeur » appliqué en Amazonie montrait déjà ses limites et ses conséquences sociales et environnementales. Les politiques publiques et instruments de commande et contrôle qui y furent appliquées n'ont pas réussi à renverser cette dynamique. La nouvelle approche de développement territorial proposée par le gouvernement Lula, loin d´être une simple étape pour atteindre le développement durable, présente une évolution significative. Il exige une remise en cause des politiques publiques traditionnelles et attribue un rôle structurant à la société. Cette innovation exige des changements conceptuels et des adaptations méthodologiques que l'on peut considérer comme une véritable révolution paradigmatique. Partant de l'hypothèse que c'est le déficit de dialogue entre les acteurs qui est à l'origine de la plupart des problèmes qui affectent la région, la méthode adoptée dès 2005 par le projet « Diálogos », consiste à augmenter les niveaux de gouvernance territoriale par le renforcement des espaces de dialogue. L'objectif de cette communication est de présenter les premiers résultats du processus de développement territorial d'une des microrégions du projet : le « portal da Amazônia »

Innovative monitoring methods in the context of adaptive management of hunting in the amazon, Colombia

Managing complex hunting socio-ecological systems within a context of uncertainty requires setting up efficient ways to monitor changes in the system and inform decision making in an adaptive management process. In such context, building trust through collaboration, institutional development, and social learning enhances efforts to foster ecosystem co-management. This approach draws explicit attention to the learning and collaboration functions necessary to improve our understanding of, and ability to respond to, complex social–ecological systems. Monitoring methods can generate observations over long time periods, incorporate large sample sizes, are relatively inexpensive and invite the participation of harvesters as researchers. We tested a combination of role playing games, traditional knowledge, technological innovations (camera traps and KoBoCollect) to co-develop a monitoring system for wildlife resources and hunting efforts in an indigenous hunting territory in the Amazon Colombia where hunters have organized themselves to develop an adaptive management approach to their hunting activities. The methods involve the active participation of hunters in data collection and an automatic tool for data analysis that allows users to visualize outputs instantaneously (e.g. map of offtakes per species, graph with number of prey per species per month). The information generated is directly usable by hunters for management decisions. We demonstrate the importance of such participatory monitoring models for building institutional trust between stakeholders (indigenous communities, governmental institutions in charge of wildlife management and civil society) as well as provide tools that are directly usable by local decision makers

Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Polarization and wavelength agnostic nanophotonic beam splitter

High-performance optical beam splitters are of fundamental importance for the development of advanced silicon photonics integrated circuits. However, due to the high refractive index contrast of the silicon-on-insulator platform, state of the art Si splitters are hampered by trade-offs in bandwidth, polarization dependence and sensitivity to fabrication errors. Here, we present a new strategy that exploits modal engineering in slotted waveguides to overcome these limitations, enabling ultra-wideband polarization-insensitive optical power splitters, with relaxed fabrication tolerances. The proposed splitter relies on a single-mode slot waveguide which is transformed into two strip waveguides by a symmetric taper, yielding equal power splitting. Based on this concept, we experimentally demonstrate -3$\pm$0.5 dB polarization-independent transmission in an unprecedented 390 nm bandwidth (1260 - 1650 nm), even in the presence of waveguide width deviations as large as $\pm$25 nm

Water level fluctuations in a coastal lagoon: El Yali Ramsar wetland, Chile

El Yali coastal reserve is the most important wetland complex in Mediterranean climate central Chile, especially due to the native and foreign bird fauna which arrives here periodically. The coastal lagoon, part of a microtidal estuary (1.2m tidal range), is a shallow (< 1m depth) dynamic system and unique site of coexistence of northern halophyte and southern palustrian riparian vegetation. This study identifies and quantifies the effect of forcing variables in the lagoon water level over 1 year of data collection. Transects of piezometers with level sensors were installed between the coastal lagoon and the sea. Monthly water quality data were collected. During the winter rainy season, the lagoon connects with the sea via an ephemeral tidal inlet, producing noticeable daily variations in the water level, up to 80-cm depending on the tides. In contrast, during the season when bar closure of the inlet disconnects the lagoon from the sea, the lagoon level is very stable and only decreases very slowly due to evaporation, which also makes the system hypersaline. During the connection phase, analyses using general pattern, spectral and Fourier analysis of the sea-vs. lagoon-level signals show that two temporal scale hierarchies are relevant: monthly (due to moon cycles) and daily (due to tidal cycles every 12.5 and 24.2-h). A simple diffusion numerical model simulated the water table trends well for the sand bar between the lagoon and the sea, supporting the main effect of the sea level on the lagoon water levels

Hypoxia induces dilated cardiomyopathy in the chick embryo: mechanism, intervention, and long-term consequences

Background: Intrauterine growth restriction is associated with an increased future risk for developing cardiovascular diseases. Hypoxia in utero is a common clinical cause of fetal growth restriction. We have previously shown that chronic hypoxia alters cardiovascular development in chick embryos. The aim of this study was to further characterize cardiac disease in hypoxic chick embryos. Methods: Chick embryos were exposed to hypoxia and cardiac structure was examined by histological methods one day prior to hatching (E20) and at adulthood. Cardiac function was assessed in vivo by echocardiography and ex vivo by contractility measurements in isolated heart muscle bundles and isolated cardiomyocytes. Chick embryos were exposed to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its scavenger soluble VEGF receptor-1 (sFlt-1) to investigate the potential role of this hypoxia-regulated cytokine. Principal Findings: Growth restricted hypoxic chick embryos showed cardiomyopathy as evidenced by left ventricular (LV) dilatation, reduced ventricular wall mass and increased apoptosis. Hypoxic hearts displayed pump dysfunction with decreased LV ejection fractions, accompanied by signs of diastolic dysfunction. Cardiomyopathy caused by hypoxia persisted into adulthood. Hypoxic embryonic hearts showed increases in VEGF expression. Systemic administration of rhVEGF165 to normoxic chick embryos resulted in LV dilatation and a dose-dependent loss of LV wall mass. Lowering VEGF levels in hypoxic embryonic chick hearts by systemic administration of sFlt-1 yielded an almost complete normalization of the phenotype. Conclusions/Significance: Our data show that hypoxia causes a decreased cardiac performance and cardiomyopathy in chick embryos, involving a significant VEGF-mediated component. This cardiomyopathy persists into adulthood

Polymeric nanocapsules prevent oxidation of core-loaded molecules: evidence based on the effects of docosahexaenoic acid and neuroprostane on breast cancer cells proliferation

International audienceBackground:Nanocapsules, as a delivery system, are able to target drugs and other biologically sensitive moleculesto specific cells or organs. This system has been intensively investigated as a way to protect bioactives drugs frominactivation upon interaction with the body and to ensure the release to the target. However, the mechanism ofimproved activity of the nanoencapsulated molecules is far from being understood at the cellular and subcellularlevels. Epidemiological studies suggest that dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) can reduce the morbidityand mortality from breast cancer. This influence could be modulated by the oxidative status of the diet and it hasbeen suggested that the anti-proliferative properties of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are enhanced by pro-oxidantagents Methods:The effect of encapsulation of PUFA on breast cancer cell proliferation in different oxidative mediumwas evaluated in vitro. We compared the proliferation of the human breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-231 and ofthe non-cancer human mammary epithelial cell line MCF-10A in different experimental conditions. Results:DHA possessed anti-proliferative properties that were prevented by alpha-tocopherol (an antioxidant) andenhanced by the pro-oxidant hydrogen peroxide that confirmsthat DHA has to be oxidized to exert its anti-proliferativeproperties. We also evaluated the anti-proliferative effects of the 4(RS)-4-F4t-neuroprostane, a bioactive, non-enzymaticoxygenated metabolite of DHA known to play a major role inthe prevention of cardiovascular diseases. DHA-loadednanocapsules was less potent than non-encapsulated DHA while co-encapsulation of DHA with H2O2maintainedthe inhibition of proliferation. The nanocapsules slightly improves the anti-proliferative effect in the case of4(RS)-4-F4t-neuroprostane that is more hydrophilic than DHA. Conclusion:Overall, our findings suggest that the sensitivity of tumor cell lines to DHA involves oxidized metabolites.They also indicate that neuroprostane is a metabolite participating in the growth reducing effect of DHA, but it is not thesole. These results also suggest that NC seek to enhance the stability against degradation, enhance cellular availability,and control the release of bioactive fatty acids following their lipophilicities

Effects of external nutrient sources and extreme weather events on the nutrient budget of a Southern European coastal lagoon

The seasonal and annual nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and carbon (C) budgets of the mesotidal Ria Formosa lagoon, southern Portugal, were estimated to reveal the main inputs and outputs, the seasonal patterns, and how they may influence the ecological functioning of the system. The effects of extreme weather events such as long-lasting strong winds causing upwelling and strong rainfall were assessed. External nutrient inputs were quantified; ocean exchange was assessed in 24-h sampling campaigns, and final calculations were made using a hydrodynamic model of the lagoon. Rain and stream inputs were the main freshwater sources to the lagoon. However, wastewater treatment plant and groundwater discharges dominated nutrient input, together accounting for 98, 96, and 88 % of total C, N, and P input, respectively. Organic matter and nutrients were continuously exported to the ocean. This pattern was reversed following extreme events, such as strong winds in early summer that caused upwelling and after a period of heavy rainfall in late autumn. A principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that ammonium and organic N and C exchange were positively associated with temperature as opposed to pH and nitrate. These variables reflected mostly the benthic lagoon metabolism, whereas particulate P exchange was correlated to Chl a, indicating that this was more related to phytoplankton dynamics. The increase of stochastic events, as expected in climate change scenarios, may have strong effects on the ecological functioning of coastal lagoons, altering the C and nutrient budgets.Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [POCI/MAR/58427/2004, PPCDT/MAR/58427/2004]; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT