Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird’s perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan’s birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan’s forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002–0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07–0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (\u3e0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts

Microgravity Testing of a Phase Change Reference on the International Space Station

Orbital sensors to monitor global climate change during the next decade require low drift rates for onboard thermometry, which is currently unattainable without on-orbit recalibration. Phase change materials (PCM), such as those that make up the ITS-90 standard, are seen as the most reliable references on the ground and could be good candidates for orbital recalibration. Space Dynamics Lab (SDL) has been developing miniaturized phase change references capable of deployment on an orbital blackbody for nearly a decade. To determine if and how microgravity will affect the phase transitions, SDL conducted experiments with ITS-90 standard material (gallium, Ga) on the International Space Station (ISS) and compared the phase change temperature with earth-based measurements. The Miniature On-orbit Thermal Reference (MOTR) experiment launched to the ISS in November 2013 on Soyuz TMA-11M with the Expedition 38 crew and returned to Kazakhstan in March 2014 on the Soyuz TMA-10 spacecraft. MOTR tested melts and freezes of Ga using repeated 6-hour cycles. This paper provides a brief history of the development of PCM references for space applications and describes the experiment hardware, microgravity considerations, and the pre-flight, flight and post-flight data analysis

Atheisms and the purification of faith

Philosophers of religion have distinguished between ‘negative’ and ‘positive’ atheism. This article considers further conceptions of atheism, especially the idea that atheism can facilitate a faith in God purified of idolatrous assumptions. After introducing Bultmann’s contention that a ‘conscious atheist’ can find something transcendent in the world, this contention is interpreted through reflection on Ricoeur’s claim that the atheisms of Nietzsche and Freud serve to mediate a transition to a purified faith – a faith involving heightened receptivity to agapeic love. The troubling question of what differentiates atheism from belief in God is then discussed in the light of Simone Weil’s meditations on God’s secret presence

Osborne\u27s Ligament: A Review of its History, Anatomy, and Surgical Importance.

When discussing the pathophysiology of ulnar neuropathy, Geoffrey Vaughan Osborne described a fibrous band that can be responsible for the symptoms seen in this disorder. In this paper, we take a glimpse at the life of Osborne and review the anatomy and surgical significance of Osborne\u27s ligament. This band of tissue connects the two heads of the flexor carpi ulnaris and thus forms the roof of the cubital tunnel. To our knowledge, no prior publication has reviewed the history of this ligament, and very few authors have studied its anatomy in any detail. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to elucidate this structure that is often implicated and surgically transected to decompress the ulnar nerve at the elbow

Reply to Comment by A. Argnani on "Geometry of the Deep Calabrian Subduction from Wide‐Angle Seismic Data and 3‐D Gravity Modeling"

Keypoints This contribution is a reply on a comment submitted by A. Argnani. The alternate interpretation of the wide-angle seismic model is discussed. The Alfeo Fault system is proposed to be the current location of STEP fault. Abstract Andrea Argnani in his comment on Dellong et al., 2020 (Geometry of the deep Calabrian subduction (Central Mediterranean Sea) from wide‐angle seismic data and 3D gravity modeling), proposes an alternate interpretation of the wide-angle seismic velocity models presented by Dellong et al., 2018 and Dellong et al., 2020 and proposes a correction of the literature citations in these paper. In this reply, we discuss in detail all points raised by Andrea Argnani

Measurements of the pp → ZZ production cross section and the Z → 4ℓ branching fraction, and constraints on anomalous triple gauge couplings at √s = 13 TeV

Four-lepton production in proton-proton collisions, pp -> (Z/gamma*)(Z/gamma*) -> 4l, where l = e or mu, is studied at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The ZZ production cross section, sigma(pp -> ZZ) = 17.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.7 (syst) +/- 0.4 (theo) +/- 0.4 (lumi) pb, measured using events with two opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs produced in the mass region 60 4l) = 4.83(-0.22)(+0.23) (stat)(-0.29)(+0.32) (syst) +/- 0.08 (theo) +/- 0.12(lumi) x 10(-6) for events with a four-lepton invariant mass in the range 80 4GeV for all opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs. The results agree with standard model predictions. The invariant mass distribution of the four-lepton system is used to set limits on anomalous ZZZ and ZZ. couplings at 95% confidence level: -0.0012 < f(4)(Z) < 0.0010, -0.0010 < f(5)(Z) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(4)(gamma) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(5)(gamma) < 0.0013

Self-association of bovine β-casein as influenced by calcium chloride, buffer type and temperature

peer-reviewedThe aim of this study was to investigate the aggregation behaviour of a pure β-casein (β-CNpure) and a β-casein concentrate (β-CNconc) as a function of temperature, buffer type (pH 6.8) and the presence of CaCl2. The particle size distribution and turbidity of β-casein (β-CN) dispersions were measured by dynamic light-scattering (DLS) and UV/vis spectroscopy between 4 and 55 °C. Upon heating (4–55 °C), the particle size of both β-CN samples increased, indicating self-association via hydrophobic interactions. It was shown that the self-association of β-CN increased with increasing β-CN concentration and that β-CNpure self-associated at significantly lower concentration than β-CNconc. Both turbidity and particle size measurements showed that the β-CN samples had similar aggregation behaviour in water and imidazole buffer (pH 6.8) but differed in sodium phosphate buffer (pH 6.8), especially at higher ionic calcium concentrations. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy revealed very little change in the secondary structure of β-CN during heating (4–55 °C). The microstructure of β-CN aggregates was monitored during heating from 10 to 55 °C, followed by cooling to 10 °C, using polarised light microscopy. Spherical and heterogeneous aggregates were observed when heated at temperatures above 37 °C, which were reversible upon cooling. This study confirmed that β-CN undergoes self-association on heating that reverses upon cooling, with the aggregation process being highly dependent on the purity of β-CN, the solvent type and the presence of ionic calcium

Critical Analysis of in situ Performance of Glass Fiber Core VIPs in Extreme Cold Climate

Glass fiber core vacuum insulation panels (VIPs) are becoming an increasingly attractive option for building envelope construction due to lower cost and availability around the world. Although fumed silica core VIPs have shown superior long-term performance under accelerated aging tests compared to glass fiber core VIPS, these laboratory test results have yet to be verified with long-term field performance data. In 2011, glass fiber core VIPs were installed in a commercial building retrofit project in Yukon, Canada (one of Canada's most northern territories), and have been continuously monitored since. This paper summarizes the thermal performance of the glass fiber core VIPs over the period of 2011–2018 in an extreme cold climate. Findings from this study provided data to validate glass fiber core VIP accelerated aging test results and the aging rate of VIPs in a cold and dry climate was determined. These results will help developing a better understanding of the long-term performance of glass fiber core VIPs in a real-world context

Application of Multidisciplinary Community Resilience Modeling to Reduce Disaster Risk: Building Back Better

From december 10 to december 11, 2021, a deadly tornado outbreak struck across several states in the us, including arkansas, illinois, kentucky, and tennessee. This tornado outbreak resulted in at least $3.9 Billion in damage, more than 90 fatalities, and hundreds of injuries. Mayfield, kentucky, a small city in the eastern united states, was hit by a long-track tornado rated as an enhanced fujita 4 (ef4) scale and was one of the communities most heavily damaged during the tornado outbreak. Following the 2021 tornado event, an analysis was performed in the interdependent networked community resilience modeling environment (in-core) for the city of mayfield to investigate a design code change for residential structures and its effect on communitywide metrics related to functionality and dislocation. Specifically, the in-core modeling environment was used to hindcast the community-level building damage and forecast the community-level building recovery in mayfield for residential buildings. This required the development of a mayfield test bed for in-core with a focus on buildings. The generalization of multidisciplinary community resilience modeling from a test bed community to a real community impacted by a recent major tornado event is intended to benchmark that in-core has a strong potential and capability to forecast/hindcast community resilience and provide what-if scenarios for decision makers, city planners, and stakeholders in communities with similar sizes

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning