The non-causal origin of the black hole-galaxy scaling relations

We show that the black hole-bulge mass scaling relations observed from the local to the high-z Universe can be largely or even entirely explained by a non-causal origin, i.e. they do not imply the need for any physically coupled growth of black hole and bulge mass, for example through feedback by active galactic nuclei (AGN). Provided some physics for the absolute normalisation, the creation of the scaling relations can be fully explained by the hierarchical assembly of black hole and stellar mass through galaxy merging, from an initially uncorrelated distribution of BH and stellar masses in the early Universe. We show this with a suite of dark matter halo merger trees for which we make assumptions about (uncorrelated) black hole and stellar mass values at early cosmic times. We then follow the halos in the presence of global star formation and black hole accretion recipes that (i) work without any coupling of the two properties per individual galaxy and (ii) correctly reproduce the observed star formation and black hole accretion rate density in the Universe. With disk-to-bulge conversion in mergers included, our simulations even create the observed slope of ~1.1 for the M_BH-M_bulge-relations at z=0. This also implies that AGN feedback is not a required (though still a possible) ingredient in galaxy evolution. In light of this, other mechanisms that can be invoked to truncate star formation in massive galaxies are equally justified.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; accepted version; again expanded, 13 pages, 8 figures; now also with BH-halo prediction

The RR Lyrae variables and Horizontal Branch of NGC6656 (M22)

The first calibrated broadband UBVI time-series photometry is presented for the RR Lyrae variable stars in NGC6656 (M22), with observations spanning a range of twenty-two years. We have also redetermined the variability types and periods for the RR Lyrae stars identified previously by photographic observations, revising the number of fundamental-mode RR Lyrae variables (RR0) to 10 and the number of first-overtone variables (RR1) to 16. The mean periods of the RR0 and RR1 variables are _{RR0}=0.66 \pm 0.02 d and _{RR1}=0.33 \pm 0.01 d, respectively, supporting an Oosterhoff II classification for the cluster. The number ratio of RR1- to all RR-type variables is N_1/N_{RR}=0.61, also consistent with an Oosterhoff II designation. Both the RR Lyrae stars' minimum light colors and the blue edge of the RR Lyrae instability strip suggest E(B-V)=0.36 \pm 0.02 mag toward M22. Regarding the HB morphology of M22, we find (B-R)/(B+V+R)=+0.97 \pm 0.1 and at least one "gap" located in an unusual part of the blue HB, in the middle of the so-called hot HB stars.Comment: accepted to A

Massive Galaxies in COSMOS: Evolution of Black hole versus bulge mass but not versus total stellar mass over the last 9 Gyrs?

We constrain the ratio of black hole (BH) mass to total stellar mass of type-1 AGN in the COSMOS survey at 1<z<2. For 10 AGN at mean redshift z~1.4 with both HST/ACS and HST/NICMOS imaging data we are able to compute total stellar mass M_(*,total), based on restframe UV-to-optical host galaxy colors which constrain mass-to-light ratios. All objects have virial BH mass-estimates available from the COSMOS Magellan/IMACS and zCOSMOS surveys. We find zero difference between the M_BH--M_(*,total)-relation at z~1.4 and the M_BH--M_(*,bulge)-relation in the local Universe. Our interpretation is: (a) If our objects were purely bulge-dominated, the M_BH--M_(*,bulge)-relation has not evolved since z~1.4. However, (b) since we have evidence for substantial disk components, the bulges of massive galaxies (logM_(*,total)=11.1+-0.25 or logM_BH~8.3+-0.2) must have grown over the last 9 Gyrs predominantly by redistribution of disk- into bulge-mass. Since all necessary stellar mass exists in the galaxy at z=1.4, no star-formation or addition of external stellar material is required, only a redistribution e.g. induced by minor and major merging or through disk instabilities. Merging, in addition to redistributing mass in the galaxy, will add both BH and stellar/bulge mass, but does not change the overall final M_BH/M_(*,bulge) ratio. Since the overall cosmic stellar and BH mass buildup trace each other tightly over time, our scenario of bulge-formation in massive galaxies is independent of any strong BH-feedback and means that the mechanism coupling BH and bulge mass until the present is very indirect.Comment: Published in ApJL; 7 pages, 2 figures; updated to accepted version (methods changed, results unchanged

Air quality evaluation of London Paddington train station

Enclosed railway stations hosting diesel trains are at risk of reduced air quality as a result of exhaust emissions that may endanger passengers and workers. Air quality measurements were conducted inside London Paddington Station, a semi-enclosed railway station where 70% of trains are powered by diesel engines. Particulate matter (PM2.5) mass was measured at five station locations. PM size, PM number, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were measured at two station locations. Paddington Station’s hourly mean PM2.5 mass concentrations averaged 16 μg/m3 [min 2, max 68]. Paddington Station’s hourly mean NO2 concentrations averaged 73 ppb [49, 120] and SO2 concentrations averaged 25 ppb [15, 37]. While UK train stations are not required to comply with air quality standards, there were five instances where the hourly mean NO2 concentrations exceeded the EU hourly mean limits (106 ppb) for outdoor air quality. PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 concentrations were compared against Marylebone, a busy London roadside 1.5 km from the station. The comparisons indicated that train station air quality was more polluted than the nearby roadside. PM2.5 for at least one measurement location within Paddington Station was shown to be statistically higher (P-value < 0.05) than Marylebone on 3 out of 4 days. Measured NO2 within Paddington Station was statistically higher than Marylebone on 4 out of 5 days. Measured SO2 within Paddington Station was statistically higher than Marylebone on all 3 days.We thank the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/F034350/1) for funding the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative and the Schiff Foundation for doctoral studentship funding.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from IOP via http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/09401

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A&gt;T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations

Properties of Dark Matter Haloes and their Correlations: the Lesson from Principal Component Analysis

We study the correlations between the structural parameters of dark matter haloes using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We consider a set of eight parameters, six of which are commonly used to characterize dark matter halo properties: mass, concentration, spin, shape, overdensity, and the angle ($\Phi_L$) between the major axis and the angular momentum vector. Two additional parameters (\x_{off} and $\rho_{rms}$) are used to describe the degree of `relaxedness' of the halo. We find that we can account for much of the variance of these properties with halo mass and concentration, on the one hand, and halo relaxedness on the other. Nonetheless, three principle components are usually required to account for most of the variance. We argue that halo mass is not as dominant as expected, which is a challenge for halo occupation models and semi-analytic models that assume that mass determines other halo (and galaxy) properties. In addition, we find that the angle $\Phi_L$ is not significantly correlated with other halo parameters, which may present a difficulty for models in which galaxy disks are oriented in haloes in a particular way. Finally, at fixed mass, we find that a halo's environment (quantified by the large-scale overdensity) is relatively unimportant.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; minor revisions; MNRAS, in pres