State-business relations in Russia in the 2000s: From the capture model to a variety of exchange models?

Using data from a 2009 survey of 957 manufacturing enterprises, this paper examines relations between the state and business as well as priority differences in the distribution of governmental support by federal, regional and local authorities. Regression analysis reveals that a “model of exchange” is the predominant pattern as opposed to “state capture” (in the case of big firms) or “grabbing hand” (in the case of SMEs), both of which were typical of the 1990s. However, there are some differences in priorities at different levels of government. The federal government in 2007-2008 provided more support to state-owned and mixed enterprises providing stable employment, while regional authorities more often supported firms that were pursuing modernization. These trends could pave the way for a shift in governmental policy at the regional level from ”state capture”/”grabbing hand” to the Chinese-style “helping hand” model.state capture; state-business relations; Russia

State-business relations and improvement of corporate governance in Russia

In this paper, we analyze the influence of the state on the improvement of corporate governance in Russia of the early 2000s. Taking into account the low quality of market institutions in the 1990s (i.e., the market failure phenomenon), we assume that state intervention as the “second best” institution had a positive impact in this case. Using a dataset of 822 joint-stock companies, we tested this hypothesis in two types of corporate models – state-owned or mixed firms and “politically connected” firms. The first model confirmed a strong positive influence of state ownership on the corporate governance in Russia in 2001-2004. The estimation results of this model are statistically robust in different specifications. We connect this result with attempts of the Russian government to use standard mechanisms and procedures of corporate governance to defend its property rights in its relations with state-owned and mixed enterprises.corporate governance; market institutions; state-owned companies; Russia

Diverse correlation structures in gene expression data and their utility in improving statistical inference

It is well known that correlations in microarray data represent a serious nuisance deteriorating the performance of gene selection procedures. This paper is intended to demonstrate that the correlation structure of microarray data provides a rich source of useful information. We discuss distinct correlation substructures revealed in microarray gene expression data by an appropriate ordering of genes. These substructures include stochastic proportionality of expression signals in a large percentage of all gene pairs, negative correlations hidden in ordered gene triples, and a long sequence of weakly dependent random variables associated with ordered pairs of genes. The reported striking regularities are of general biological interest and they also have far-reaching implications for theory and practice of statistical methods of microarray data analysis. We illustrate the latter point with a method for testing differential expression of nonoverlapping gene pairs. While designed for testing a different null hypothesis, this method provides an order of magnitude more accurate control of type 1 error rate compared to conventional methods of individual gene expression profiling. In addition, this method is robust to the technical noise. Quantitative inference of the correlation structure has the potential to extend the analysis of microarray data far beyond currently practiced methods.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS120 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Relative frequencies in multitype branching processes

This paper considers the relative frequencies of distinct types of individuals in multitype branching processes. We prove that the frequencies are asymptotically multivariate normal when the initial number of ancestors is large and the time of observation is fixed. The result is valid for any branching process with a finite number of types; the only assumption required is that of independent individual evolutions. The problem under consideration is motivated by applications in the area of cell biology. Specifically, the reported limiting results are of advantage in cell kinetics studies where the relative frequencies but not the absolute cell counts are accessible to measurement. Relevant statistical applications are discussed in the context of asymptotic maximum likelihood inference for multitype branching processes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP539 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A C++ Program for the Cramér-Von Mises Two-Sample Test

As larger sets of high-throughput data in genomics and proteomics become more readily available, there is a growing need for fast algorithms designed to compute exact p values of distribution-free statistical tests. We present a program for computing the exact distribution of the two-sample Cramér-von Mises test statistic under the null hypothesis that the two samples are drawn from the same continuous distribution. The program makes it possible to handle substantially larger sample sizes than earlier proposed computational tools. The C++ source code for the program is published with this paper, and an R package is under development.

Control of the mean number of false discoveries, Bonferroni and stability of multiple testing

The Bonferroni multiple testing procedure is commonly perceived as being overly conservative in large-scale simultaneous testing situations such as those that arise in microarray data analysis. The objective of the present study is to show that this popular belief is due to overly stringent requirements that are typically imposed on the procedure rather than to its conservative nature. To get over its notorious conservatism, we advocate using the Bonferroni selection rule as a procedure that controls the per family error rate (PFER). The present paper reports the first study of stability properties of the Bonferroni and Benjamini--Hochberg procedures. The Bonferroni procedure shows a superior stability in terms of the variance of both the number of true discoveries and the total number of discoveries, a property that is especially important in the presence of correlations between individual $p$-values. Its stability and the ability to provide strong control of the PFER make the Bonferroni procedure an attractive choice in microarray studies.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS102 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Russia's Economy: Between a Crash and a Hard Landing

Based on macro-level data, most analysts forecasting Russia's economic development following the introduction of new large-scale sanctions expect a 10-12% drop in GDP, 20-25% inflation, and an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 7-8% by the end of this year. This article argues that in the context of a severe economic shock, micro-data and comparison with similar cases offer a better guide to future developments than macro-data. They point to a much sharper decline in economic activity than is currently being forecasted

Fighting the Pandemic and Fighting Sanctions: Can the Russian Economy Now Benefit from Its Experience with Anti-Crisis Measures?

Faced with tough international sanctions in reaction to its war against Ukraine, the Russian government has resorted to measures developed during the COVID-19 pandemic in order to stabilize the economy. This short analysis discusses the rationale behind this approach and demonstrates its limits

Interaction of interest groups and their impact on economic reform in contemporary Russia

In seinem Aufsatz befasst sich der Autor mit der Frage, wer die von Präsident Putin angestrebten bzw. versprochenen Reformen in Russland unterstützt und voranbringt. Die thematische Auseinandersetzung gliedert sich in zwei Abschnitte: Das erste Kapitel vermittelt einen Überblick über den derzeitigen Forschungsstand. Dabei werden die bislang offenen Aspekte hervorgehoben und jene Trends betrachtet, die noch nicht ausreichend erklärt sind. Dazu zählen die Erörterung (1) der Gewinner und Verlierer, (2) die Transformation der wirtschaftlichen und politischen Eliten und (3) die Entwicklung nach der Wirtschaftskrise Ende der 1990er Jahre. Das zweite Kapitel diskutiert die Entwicklung der Interessen einflussreicher sozialer Gruppen in der Post-Reform-Periode. Zudem wird der positive Einfluss der Finanzkrise von 1998 auf die Motivation wirtschaftlicher Kompetenzträger aufgezeigt und erklärt, warum die Schlüsselpersonen anschließend ihre Entwicklungs- bzw. Expansionsanreize verlieren. In einer Schlussbetrachtung präsentiert der Autor jene Gruppen, die zu einer Unterstützung der politischen Reformen unter den derzeitigen Bedingungen fähig sind, indem die Implementierung wettbewerbsfähiger Institutionen und Mechanismen in die ökonomische und politische Landschaft Russlands angestrebt wird. (ICG2