Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

Controlled surgery with trivial local fundamental groups

We provide a proof of the controlled surgery sequence, including stability, in the special case that the local fundamental groups are trivial. Stability is a key ingredient in the construction of exotic homology manifolds by Bryant, Ferry, Mio and Weinberger, but no proof has been available. The development given here is based on work of M. Yamasaki.Comment: 5 page

Perceptions of Transactional and Transformational Leaders According to Gender

The lack of females occupying leadership positions in the modern workplace has prompted the research of this study. In order to better understand the perceptions that exist regarding successful leadership, this study was conducted with the intention of understanding individual leadership style through the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, which measures transactional and transformational leadership styles (Bass and Avolio, 1993). 64 male and female participants, made up of 36 students and 28 individuals in the workforce ages 18-61 with an average age of 31 answered 21 questions to assess their leadership style and 1 to measure who they perceived as a successful leader, with responses coded by gender of responder and response. This study aimed to assess whether males identified more with transactional leadership and females with transformational leadership style, which would confirm current research conducted in the field. The Chi Squared statistical analysis test results showed that 72.4% of males displayed transformational leadership styles, along with 82.9% of females displaying this same style, which showed a lack of significance between gender and difference in leadership style. However, in response to the question asking to identify a successful leader, results showed that most individuals of both gender wrote down a male leader

Dancing to ChaNGa: A Self-Consistent Prediction For Close SMBH Pair Formation Timescales Following Galaxy Mergers

We present the first self-consistent prediction for the distribution of formation timescales for close Supermassive Black Hole (SMBH) pairs following galaxy mergers. Using ROMULUS25, the first large-scale cosmological simulation to accurately track the orbital evolution of SMBHs within their host galaxies down to sub-kpc scales, we predict an average formation rate density of close SMBH pairs of 0.013 cMpc^-3 Gyr^-1. We find that it is relatively rare for galaxy mergers to result in the formation of close SMBH pairs with sub-kpc separation and those that do form are often the result of Gyrs of orbital evolution following the galaxy merger. The likelihood and timescale to form a close SMBH pair depends strongly on the mass ratio of the merging galaxies, as well as the presence of dense stellar cores. Low stellar mass ratio mergers with galaxies that lack a dense stellar core are more likely to become tidally disrupted and deposit their SMBH at large radii without any stellar core to aid in their orbital decay, resulting in a population of long-lived 'wandering' SMBHs. Conversely, SMBHs in galaxies that remain embedded within a stellar core form close pairs in much shorter timescales on average. This timescale is a crucial, though often ignored or very simplified, ingredient to models predicting SMBH mergers rates and the connection between SMBH and star formation activity.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The Scythe Statistical Library: An Open Source C++ Library for Statistical Computation

The Scythe Statistical Library is an open source C++ library for statistical computation. It includes a suite of matrix manipulation functions, a suite of pseudo-random number generators, and a suite of numerical optimization routines. Programs written using Scythe are generally much faster than those written in commonly used interpreted languages, such as R and \proglang{MATLAB}; and can be compiled on any system with the GNU GCC compiler (and perhaps with other C++ compilers). One of the primary design goals of the Scythe developers has been ease of use for non-expert C++ programmers. Ease of use is provided through three primary mechanisms: (1) operator and function over-loading, (2) numerous pre-fabricated utility functions, and (3) clear documentation and example programs. Additionally, Scythe is quite flexible and entirely extensible because the source code is available to all users under the GNU General Public License.

Can variability in the effect of opioids on refractory breathlessness be explained by genetic factors?

© 2015, BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. Objectives: Opioids modulate the perception of breathlessness with a considerable variation in response, with poor correlation between the required opioid dose and symptom severity. The objective of this hypothesis-generating, secondary analysis was to identify candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) from those associated with opioid receptors, signalling or pain modulation to identify any related to intensity of breathlessness while on opioids. This can help to inform prospective studies and potentially lead to better tailoring of opioid therapy for refractory breathlessness. Setting: 17 hospice/palliative care services (tertiary services) in 11 European countries. Participants: 2294 people over 18 years of age on regular opioids for pain related to cancer or its treatment. Primary outcome measures: The relationship between morphine dose, breathlessness intensity (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire; EORTCQLQC30 question 8) and 112 candidate SNPs from 25 genes (n=588). Secondary outcome measures: The same measures for people on oxycodone (n=402) or fentanyl (n=429). Results: SNPs not in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or with allele frequencies ( < 5%) were removed. Univariate associations between each SNP and breathlessness intensity were determined with Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate set at 20%. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression, clustering over country and adjusting for available confounders, was conducted with remaining SNPs. For univariate morphine associations, 1 variant on the 5-hydroxytryptamine type 3B (HTR3B) gene, and 4 on the β-2-arrestin gene (ARRB2) were associated with more intense breathlessness. 1 SNP remained significant in the multivariable model: people with rs7103572 SNP (HTR3B gene; present in 8.4% of the population) were three times more likely to have more intense breathlessness (OR 2.86; 95% CIs 1.46 to 5.62; p=0.002). No associations were seen with fentanyl nor with oxycodone. Conclusions: This large, exploratory study identified 1 biologically plausible SNP that warrants further study in the response of breathlessness to morphine therapy