Assessment of extreme heat and hospitalizations to inform early warning systems.

Heat early warning systems and action plans use temperature thresholds to trigger warnings and risk communication. In this study, we conduct multistate analyses, exploring associations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations, to inform the design and development of heat-health early warning systems. We used a two-stage analysis to estimate heat-health risk relationships between heat index and hospitalizations in 1,617 counties in the United States for 2003-2012. The first stage involved a county-level time series quasi-Poisson regression, using a distributed lag nonlinear model, to estimate heat-health associations. The second stage involved a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific exposure-response associations across larger geographic scales, such as by state or climate region. Using results from this two-stage analysis, we identified heat index ranges that correspond with significant heat-attributable burden. We then compared those with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service (NWS) heat alert criteria used during the same time period. Associations between heat index and cause-specific hospitalizations vary widely by geography and health outcome. Heat-attributable burden starts to occur at moderately hot heat index values, which in some regions are below the alert ranges used by the NWS during the study time period. Locally specific health evidence can beneficially inform and calibrate heat alert criteria. A synchronization of health findings with traditional weather forecasting efforts could be critical in the development of effective heat-health early warning systems

Declining mortality following acute myocardial infarction in the Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is declining worldwide. We sought to determine if mortality in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has also been declining.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We calculated 30-day mortality rates between 2004 and 2006 using data from the VHA External Peer Review Program (EPRP), which entails detailed abstraction of records of all patients with AMI. To compare trends within VHA with other systems of care, we estimated relative mortality rates between 2000 and 2005 for all males 65 years and older with a primary diagnosis of AMI using administrative data from the VHA Patient Treatment File and the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) files.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using EPRP data on 11,609 patients, we observed a statistically significant decline in adjusted 30-day mortality following AMI in VHA from 16.3% in 2004 to 13.9% in 2006, a relative decrease of 15% and a decrease in the odds of dying of 10% per year (p = .011). Similar declines were found for in-hospital and 90-day mortality.</p> <p>Based on administrative data on 27,494 VHA patients age 65 years and older and 789,400 Medicare patients, 30-day mortality following AMI declined from 16.0% during 2000-2001 to 15.7% during 2004-June 2005 in VHA and from 16.7% to 15.5% in private sector hospitals. After adjusting for patient characteristics and hospital effects, the overall relative odds of death were similar for VHA and Medicare (odds ratio 1.02, 95% C.I. 0.96-1.08).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mortality following AMI within VHA has declined significantly since 2003 at a rate that parallels that in Medicare-funded hospitals.</p

Assessment of Quality of Care for Managed Care and Fee-For-Service Patients Based on Analysis of Avoidable Hospitalizations

AbstractAs managed care has grown to dominate the US health care delivery system, questions have been raised about the impact on the quality of care provided to its enrollees. Two important aspects of health care quality are access to care and the appropriateness of care. This analysis evaluated the occurrence of preventable hospitalizations among managed care (MCO) versus fee for service (FFS) populations to compare access to and appropriateness of preventive, primary, and surgical health care services. Rates of preventable hospitalizations associated with ambulatory sensitive conditions (ASCs) were calculated based on all discharges from Massachusetts hospitals in 1995, and categorized by population characteristics including: age, sex, ethnicity, and insurance status. Multivariate logistic regression models were employed to explain the likelihood of having a preventable hospitalization. Rates of preventable hospitalizations for two of the conditions evaluated (perforated appendix and diabetes complications) were lower for MCO enrollees. For two additional indicators (immunization preventable pneumonia and low birth weight), MCO rates were no different from FFS rates. Results for pediatric asthma were inconclusive. For four out of five quality indicators evaluated, individuals in Massachusetts MCOs are doing better or no worse than their counterparts in FFS plans. Until population-based data on managed care enrollees becomes available, and until such data can be linked to utilization and health outcomes information, investigations into the quality of services provided by MCOs compared to FFS plans cannot be definitive