A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

Three Years in a Mad-House: The Story of my Life at the Asylum, my Escape, and the Strange Adventures which Followed

https://digitalcommons.library.tmc.edu/ebooks/1007/thumbnail.jp

Using imprecise continuous time Markov chains for assessing the reliability of power networks with common cause failure and non-immediate repair.

We explore how imprecise continuous time Markov chains can improve traditional reliability models based on precise continuous time Markov chains. Specifically, we analyse the reliability of power networks under very weak statistical assumptions, explicitly accounting for non-stationary failure and repair rates and the limited accuracy by which common cause failure rates can be estimated. Bounds on typical quantities of interest are derived, namely the expected time spent in system failure state, as well as the expected number of transitions to that state. A worked numerical example demonstrates the theoretical techniques described. Interestingly, the number of iterations required for convergence is observed to be much lower than current theoretical bounds

Restriction on the energy and luminosity of e+e- storage rings due to beamstrahlung

The role of beamstrahlung in high-energy e+e- storage-ring colliders (SRCs) is examined. Particle loss due to the emission of single energetic beamstrahlung photons is shown to impose a fundamental limit on SRC luminosities at energies 2E_0 >~ 140 GeV for head-on collisions and 2E_0 >~ 40 GeV for crab-waist collisions. With beamstrahlung taken into account, we explore the viability of SRCs in the E_0=240-500 GeV range, which is of interest in the precision study of the Higgs boson. At 2E_0=240 GeV, SRCs are found to be competitive with linear colliders; however, at 2E_0=400-500 GeV, the attainable SRC luminosity would be a factor 15-25 smaller than desired.Comment: Latex, 5 pages. v2 differs only by minor changes is abstract and introduction, one reference is added. v3 corresponds to the paper published in PR

Modification of Kawai model about the mixing of the pseudoscalar mesons

The Kawai model describing the glueball-quarkonia mixing is modified. The mixing of $\eta$, $\eta^\prime$ and $\eta(1410)$ is re-investigated based on the modified Kawai model. The glueball-quarkonia content of the three states is determined from a fit to the data of the electromagnetic decays involving $\eta$, $\eta^\prime$. Some predictions about the electromagnetic decays involving $\eta(1410)$ are presented.Comment: revtex 8 page

Safety and efficacy of methylene blue combined with artesunate or amodiaquine for uncomplicated falciparum malaria

Besides existing artemisinin-based combination therapies, alternative safe, effective and affordable drug combinations against falciparum malaria are needed. Methylene blue (MB) was the first synthetic antimalarial drug ever used, and recent studies have been promising with regard to its revival in malaria therapy. The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of two MB-based malaria combination therapies, MB-artesunate (AS) and MB-amodiaquine (AQ), compared to the local standard of care, AS-AQ, in Burkina Faso. Open-label randomised controlled phase II study in 180 children aged 6-10 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Nouna, north-western Burkina Faso. Follow-up was for 28 days and analysis by intention-to-treat. The treatment groups were similar in baseline characteristics and there was only one loss to follow-up. No drug-related serious adverse events and no deaths occurred. MB-containing regimens were associated with mild vomiting and dysuria. No early treatment failures were observed. Parasite clearance time differed significantly among groups and was the shortest with MB-AS. By day 14, the rates of adequate clinical and parasitological response after PCR-based correction for recrudescence were 87% for MB-AS, 100% for MB-AQ (p = 0.004), and 100% for AS-AQ (p = 0.003). By day 28, the respective figure was lowest for MB-AS (62%), intermediate for the standard treatment AS-AQ (82%; p = 0.015), and highest for MB-AQ (95%; p<0.001; p = 0.03). MB-AQ is a promising alternative drug combination against malaria in Africa. Moreover, MB has the potential to further accelerate the rapid parasite clearance of artemisinin-based combination therapies. More than a century after the antimalarial properties of MB had been described, its role in malaria control deserves closer attention. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00354380

Strong gametocytocidal effect of methylene blue-based combination therapy against falciparum malaria

With the availability of new preventive and curative interventions, global malaria control has been strengthened significantly in recent years. Drugs effective in reducing malaria gametocytaemia might contribute to local elimination and possible long-term eradication. We here report on the effects of methylene blue (MB)-based malaria combination therapy on gametocytaemia during a randomised-controlled trial in Burkina Faso. An open-label randomised controlled phase II study in 180 children aged 6-10 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria was conducted in Nouna, north-western Burkina Faso. Children were randomised to MB-artesunate (AS), MB-amodiaquine (AQ), and AS-AQ (local standard of care). Overall follow-up was for 28 days, follow-up for gametocytaemia was for 14 days. The treatment groups were similar in baseline characteristics and there was only one loss to follow-up. Compared to AS-AQ, both MB-containing regimens were associated with significantly reduced gametocyte carrier rates during follow-up days 3, 7, and 14. This effect was seen both in patients with and without P. falciparum gametocytaemia at baseline. MB reveals pronounced gametocytocidal activity which appears to act against both existing and developing P. falciparum gametocytes. MB-based combination therapy thus has the potential to reduce transmission of P. falciparum malaria in endemic regions, which has important implications for future elimination and eradication strategies

Collection Conditions and Self-Rated Health: An Analysis of European Data,

Self-rated health is only a biased reflection of real health. However, it is difficult to isolate and assess this bias. In particular, to what extent does the information collected depended on the collection conditions, given that these vary considerably between countries and surveys? The resources in the Share database enable us to analyse two collection method effects: the position of the subjective health question in the questionnaire and the wording of the suggested response modalities. Both effects have an impact: the average level of health, the distribution of states of health and links between health and other variables are altered when the collection conditions change. The positioning effect is homogenous within all countries. The wording of the suggested response modalities also changes the measure of self-rated health. For example, Sweden appears to be the healthiest country using the initial wording, but moves down to fifth place using a second wording.Self-Reported Health, Framing Effects, International Health Rankings