Pyrosequencing-Based Comparative Genome Analysis of Vibrio vulnificus Environmental Isolates

Between 1996 and 2006, the US Centers for Disease Control reported that the only category of food-borne infections increasing in frequency were those caused by members of the genus Vibrio. The Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio vulnificus is a ubiquitous inhabitant of estuarine waters, and is the number one cause of seafood-related deaths in the US. Many V. vulnificus isolates have been studied, and it has been shown that two genetically distinct subtypes, distinguished by 16S rDNA and other gene polymorphisms, are associated predominantly with either environmental or clinical isolation. While local genetic differences between the subtypes have been probed, only the genomes of clinical isolates have so far been completely sequenced. In order to better understand V. vulnificus as an agent of disease and to identify the molecular components of its virulence mechanisms, we have completed whole genome shotgun sequencing of three diverse environmental genotypes using a pyrosequencing approach. V. vulnificus strain JY1305 was sequenced to a depth of 33×, and strains E64MW and JY1701 were sequenced to lesser depth, covering approximately 99.9% of each genome. We have performed a comparative analysis of these sequences against the previously published sequences of three V. vulnificus clinical isolates. We find that the genome of V. vulnificus is dynamic, with 1.27% of genes in the C-genotype genomes not found in the E- genotype genomes. We identified key genes that differentiate between the genomes of the clinical and environmental genotypes. 167 genes were found to be specifically associated with environmental genotypes and 278 genes with clinical genotypes. Genes specific to the clinical strains include components of sialic acid catabolism, mannitol fermentation, and a component of a Type IV secretory pathway VirB4, as well as several other genes with potential significance for human virulence. Genes specific to environmental strains included several that may have implications for the balance between self-preservation under stress and nutritional competence

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583

GenoSets: visual analytic methods for comparative genomics.

Many important questions in biology are, fundamentally, comparative, and this extends to our analysis of a growing number of sequenced genomes. Existing genomic analysis tools are often organized around literal views of genomes as linear strings. Even when information is highly condensed, these views grow cumbersome as larger numbers of genomes are added. Data aggregation and summarization methods from the field of visual analytics can provide abstracted comparative views, suitable for sifting large multi-genome datasets to identify critical similarities and differences. We introduce a software system for visual analysis of comparative genomics data. The system automates the process of data integration, and provides the analysis platform to identify and explore features of interest within these large datasets. GenoSets borrows techniques from business intelligence and visual analytics to provide a rich interface of interactive visualizations supported by a multi-dimensional data warehouse. In GenoSets, visual analytic approaches are used to enable querying based on orthology, functional assignment, and taxonomic or user-defined groupings of genomes. GenoSets links this information together with coordinated, interactive visualizations for both detailed and high-level categorical analysis of summarized data. GenoSets has been designed to simplify the exploration of multiple genome datasets and to facilitate reasoning about genomic comparisons. Case examples are included showing the use of this system in the analysis of 12 Brucella genomes. GenoSets software and the case study dataset are freely available at http://genosets.uncc.edu. We demonstrate that the integration of genomic data using a coordinated multiple view approach can simplify the exploration of large comparative genomic data sets, and facilitate reasoning about comparisons and features of interest

Application example of using GenoSets to identify key features of interest.

<p>(A) Parallel Sets highlights sets of interest that can be further analyzed using multiple alternative views. (B) GO Treemap view showing all GO terms, with the colors representing the enriched terms. If the term ratio is higher for the study set than the population set, the term is colored rose; otherwise, the term is colored blue. (C) The treemap is filtered to display carbohydrate metabolic process and all of this term’s children. (D) The GO Tree Navigator view can aid the user in navigating the GO tree hierarchy. All of the views are coordinated with one another such that selection in one view is propagated to all others.</p

Parallel Sets for categorical partitioning of gene sets.

<p>A Parallel Sets view is used to subdivide genes that occur in genomes of the Brucella genus. The highlighted ribbon contains the genes that are part of the dispensable gene vocabulary of known B. melitensis species, but appear to be part of the common core gene set in B. suis and B. abortus species. When selected, the list of genes attached to the ribbon propagates to other coordinated views.</p

GenoSets: Visual Analytic Methods for Comparative Genomics

Many important questions in biology are, fundamentally, comparative, and this extends to our analysis of a growing number of sequenced genomes. Existing genomic analysis tools are often organized around literal views of genomes as linear strings. Even when information is highly condensed, these views grow cumbersome as larger numbers of genomes are added. Data aggregation and summarization methods from the field of visual analytics can provide abstracted comparative views, suitable for sifting large multi-genome datasets to identify critical similarities and differences. We introduce a software system for visual analysis of comparative genomics data. The system automates the process of data integration, and provides the analysis platform to identify and explore features of interest within these large datasets. GenoSets borrows techniques from business intelligence and visual analytics to provide a rich interface of interactive visualizations supported by a multi-dimensional data warehouse. In GenoSets, visual analytic approaches are used to enable querying based on orthology, functional assignment, and taxonomic or user-defined groupings of genomes. GenoSets links this information together with coordinated, interactive visualizations for both detailed and high-level categorical analysis of summarized data. GenoSets has been designed to simplify the exploration of multiple genome datasets and to facilitate reasoning about genomic comparisons. Case examples are included showing the use of this system in the analysis of 12 Brucella genomes. GenoSets software and the case study dataset are freely available at http://genosets.uncc.edu. We demonstrate that the integration of genomic data using a coordinated multiple view approach can simplify the exploration of large comparative genomic data sets, and facilitate reasoning about comparisons and features of interest

Using GenoSets to identify features in the highly pathogenic strains of Brucella.

<p>(A) The Parallel Sets view allows the user to create sets of genes that are only in the high-pathogenic strains. (B) Results of the GO enrichment analysis are shown in the Enrichment Details view. (C) View the genes associated with an enriched term in the Ortholog Cluster view. Genes are grouped together by ortholog clusters in this view.</p

Overview of the GenoSets user interface.

<p>The multiple views allow the user to progressively build queries at multiple levels of detail. The Parallel Sets view (A) allows you to create study sets by partition your genes based on orthologous relationships across multiple taxonomic levels. The study sets created in (A) can then be viewed along with associated GO enrichment in the Tree Navigator view (B), Treemap view (C), and the Enrichment Details view (D). Each of these views is displaying the same information in alternative forms for a better overall analysis. The user may further filter the dataset by selecting a GO term from views B, C, or D. The details for each gene associated with the selected GO term are displayed in the Ortholog Cluster view (E). A demonstration video of this case study can be found at <a href="http://genosets.uncc.edu" target="_blank">http://genosets.uncc.edu</a>.</p