Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Identifying Forged and Phony Uniform Resource Locators (URLs)

Since the invention of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), there has been a great shift from the erstwhile traditional approach of handling information across the globe to the usage of this innovation. The application of this initiative cut across almost all areas of human endeavours. ICT is widely utilized in education and production sectors as well as in various financial institutions. It is of note that many people are using it genuinely to carry out their day to day activities while others are using it to perform nefarious activities at the detriment of other cyber users. According to several reports which are discussed in the introductory part of this work, millions of people have become victims of fake Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) sent to their mails by spammers. Financial institutions are not left out in the monumental loss recorded through this illicit act over the years. It is worth mentioning that, despite several approaches currently in place, none could confidently be confirmed to provide the best and reliable solution. According to several research findings reported in the literature, researchers have demonstrated how machine learning algorithms could be employed to verify and confirm compromised and fake URLs in the cyberspace. Inconsistencies have however been noticed in the researchers’ findings and also their corresponding results are not dependable based on the values obtained and conclusions drawn from them. Against this backdrop, the authors carried out a comparative analysis of three learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree and Logistics Regression Model) for verification of compromised, suspicious and fake URLs and determine which is the best of all based on the metrics (F-Measure, Precision and Recall) used for evaluation. Based on the confusion metrics measurement, the result obtained shows that the Decision Tree (ID3) algorithm achieves the highest values for recall, precision and f-measure. It unarguably provides efficient and credible means of maximizing the detection of compromised and malicious URLs. Finally, for future work, authors are of the opinion that two or more supervised learning algorithms can be hybridized to form a single effective and more efficient algorithm for fake URLs verification.Keywords: Learning-algorithms, Forged-URL, Phoney-URL, performance-compariso

Optimal quality ultra high video streaming based H.265

Using Ultra-High Definition (UHD) video streaming in real-time transmission over the internet is the main challenge of this paper. Due to the widely variation of the available Internet bandwidth makes the difficulties of video streaming with flexibility and efficiency. In this paper the UHD video is down sampled and encoded at different levels of 4K, FHD, 720p, 4CIF, CIF and QCIF. Experiments were done to find the optimal configuration of H265 features at each level that give the required PSNR, 36 dB, at assigned bitrate. A controller is incorporated with H265 encoder to achieve the adaptation of video streaming on the available bandwidth by choosing the proper level that is compatible with the channel bitrate results of keeping a good quality to the end user. The adaptation of video was realized by making the controller periodically reads the status of the buffer, such function helps the controller to select the proper level, 4K, FHD, 720p, 4CIF, CIF or QCIF to be streamed over the channel. At the decoder the reconstructed video for lower level is done by interpolation scaling up

Decarbonisation of olefin processes using biomass pyrolysis oil

An imperative step toward decarbonisation of current industrial processes is to substitute their petroleum-derived feedstocks with biomass and biomass-derived feedstocks. For decarbonisation of the petrochemical industry, integrated catalytic processing of biomass pyrolysis oil (also known as bio-oil) is an enabling technology. This is because, under certain conditions, the reaction products form a mixture consisting of olefins and aromatics, which are very similar to the products of naphtha hydro-cracking in the conventional olefin processes. These synergies suggest that the catalytic bio-oil upgrading reactors can be seamlessly integrated to the subsequent separation network with minimal retrofitting costs. In addition, the integrated catalytic processing provides a high degree of flexibility for optimization of different products in response to market fluctuations. With the aim of assessing the techno-economic viability of this pathway, five scenarios in which different fractions of bio-oil (water soluble/water insoluble) were processed with different degrees of hydrogenation were studied in the present research. The results showed that such a retrofit is not only economically viable, but also provides a high degree of flexibility to the process, and contributes to decarbonisation of olefin infrastructures. Up to 44% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions were observed in several scenarios. In addition, it was shown that hydrogen prices lower than 6 $/kg will result in bio-based chemicals which are cheaper than equivalent petrochemicals. Alternatively, for higher hydrogen prices, it is possible to reform the water insoluble phase of bio-oil and produce bio-based chemicals, cheaper than petrochemical equivalents

Long-lived alpha emitters concentrations in the spices consumed in Iraq using CR-39 detector

البهارات تستخدم كاضافات على الطعام في مختلف البلدان ، من ضمنها بلدنا، لذا من الضروري التاكد من خلوها من المواد المشعة الضارة بصحة الانسان. هدف هذا البحث كان قياس تراكيز باعثات الفا ، وقياس الجرعة السنوية الفعالة  AED الناتجة من تناول الرادون. استخدم كاشف  CR-39 في قياس تراكيز الرادون ، الراديوم واليورانيوم في 24 عينة من البهارات المختارة من الاسواق. تراكيز الرادون وجد في هذا البحث تتغير من 65.102 الى 195.30 Bq/m3 وبقيمة متوسطة 126.47 Bq/m3 وهذه القيمة هي اعلى بقليل من  100 Bq/m3 المستوى او الحدود المقبولة من منظمة الصحة العالمية (WHO) واقل من 200 Bq/m3 التي هي حدود اللوائح البريطانية للوقاية من الاشعاع (NRPB) والاوربية. الجرعة السنوية الفعالة للرادون تراوحت بين 1.642- 4.927 mSv/y التي هي ضمن المدى 0.2 - 10 mSv/y  للجنة الامم المتحدة لاثار الاشعاع الذري (UNSCEAR). تراكيز الراديوم تغيرت بين 0.446 - 1.367 Bq/Kg بمتوسط 0.943 Bq/Kg. وتراكيز فعالية اليورانيوم كانت في المدى 4.408 - 13.520 Bq/Kg وبقيمة متوسطة 9.322 Bq/Kg. هذا العمل قاس التراكيز المحددة للمواد المشعة الموجودة في البهارات وبين ان هذه البهارات امنة للتناول.Spices are mainly used as additives to diets in different countries, including our country, so it is necessary to ensure that they are free of radioactive substances harmful to human health. This research aimed to measure the concentrations of alpha emitters, and measure the annual effective dose AED resulting from the intake of radon. The CR-39 detector used to measure radon, radium, and uranium concentrations in the 24 spices samples selected from markets. In this work the radon concentrations in the samples were found to vary from  65.102 to 195.30 Bq/m3 with 126.47 Bq/m3 a mean value, this mean value is a small amount over 100 Bq/m3 the reference level limits of the World Health Organization (WHO), below 200 Bq/m3 of the UK Board of National Radiation Protection (NRPB) limits and below the level of the European Recommendation Commission. The annual radon effective dose varied between 1.642-4.927 mSv/y which is within the range of 0.2-10 mSv/y of (UNSCEAR). Radium contents vary between 0.446-1.367 Bq/Kg with 0.943 Bq/Kg as a mean value. The range of uranium activity concentrations is between 4.408-13.520 Bq/Kg with a mean value of 9.322 Bq/Kg. This work identified and measured the specified concentrations of radionuclide present in spices showed that spices are safe for consumption

Risk and Reward Perception and Risk-Taking: Applicability, Relationship, and Implication in Construction Safety

While safety improvements have been made in the construction industry, construction still experiences one of the highest numbers of fatalities annually compared to other industries in the United States with over 970 fatalities in 2016 alone. This number of fatalities drives researchers and safety managers to improve safety measures and practices, and to gain a better understanding of why accidents happen. One of the main hurdles facing safety managers across the United States is workers’ risk taking. While risk perception and risk taking have been studied extensively in construction, there is a general lack of research that factors in the impact of risk taking or the biases in risk perception. Most prior studies have considered workers’ risk perception of the hazards present in their work as an accurate assessment of safety risk. Biases in risk perception were rarely examined. Furthermore, the factors influencing workers’ risk perception were often studied individually. While that approach might provide an explanation of the impact of a certain factor (e.g., the amount and quality of training) on safety risk perception, this approach often fails to examine the bigger picture and does not give a clear transition for the implications of that single factor on overall risk taking. Therefore, a need for a holistic approach directed at a worker’s risk taking has risen. This study addresses this knowledge gap by conducting an all-inclusive approach to safety risk perception, the factors influencing it, and how it impacts a worker’s decision making. By conducting a very detailed literature review in construction safety, occupational safety, and decision-making literature, the main factors influencing perception and risk aking were highlighted. This study utilized multiple forms of data collection, both at the national level and at the state level, to conduct the various analyses that were carried out in the research. Throughout the four manuscripts of this dissertation, new and unstudied biases in workers’ risk perception are presented and discussed, occupational rewards are defined, the connections between the perception of risk and reward are established, and the implications of all of those issues on worker’s risk taking are investigated and outlined. The findings of this study indicate that workers’ risk perception is influenced by many factors that have not been examined in prior studies. Workers were found to assess the same risk differently depending on the person that might be impacted by that risk. This bias has not previously been studied in construction safety research. Furthermore, this study presents a modern definition of occupational rewards that reflects what workers perceive as being a reward in their job. The study also presents the perceived rewards as indicated by the construction workers in four different categories (financial, developmental, social, and personal) and illustrates the impact of the rewards on attracting new workers to the industry, as well as retaining and motivating the existing workforce. The study also establishes the presence of a connection between the perceptions of risk and reward in construction workers’ assessment even though workers failed to directly identify the connection. Finally, the study utilized a mixed-methods approach to examine construction workers’ risk taking that took into consideration multiple factors highlighted throughout the previous steps. The findings of this study provide the foundation for future research in this field, and can have a great impact on improving safety outcomes in practice if addressed properly in a company’s safety plan

Efficacy of insecticides spinosad and imidacloprid as baiting stations to control termite Microcerotermes diversus (Silvestri) (Isoptera: Termitidae)

The control of termite infestations, particularly Microcerotermes diversus, poses substantial challenges in agricultural settings, such as olive orchards, necessitating effective pest management strategies. This study investigates the efficacy of two insecticides, imidacloprid, and spinosad, at varying concentrations for controlling termite infestations in an olive orchard in Baghdad. The experiment utilized bait stations consisting of plastic containers buried within the soil of infested olive trees. Each bait station contained palm frond bundles treated with either imidacloprid (200, 400, 600 ppm) or spinosad (200, 400, 600 ppm) and the control group with no treatment. Palms were previously dried and placed in the bait stations, then inspected bi-monthly for termite infestation and weight loss over six months. After one month, the treatment with 200 ppm imidacloprid produced a 75% infection rate, with 3120 worker termites and a 55% reduction in palm frond weight. By six months, the infestation rates for imidacloprid and spinosad 600 ppm decreased to 0%, corresponding to 40% and 38% weight losses. The control group had 100% infestation and a peak of 5820 workers. Spinosad at 600 ppm proved most effective, achieving a total reduction in infestation by month four, demonstrating a significant difference in efficacy between the insecticides. The findings highlight the effectiveness of using bait stations with imidacloprid and spinosad to manage termite populations, providing a crucial method for safeguarding crops against severe pest threats. This study contributes valuable data on optimal pesticide application for sustainable agricultural practices.