Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

The "Persuadable Middle" on Same-Sex Marriage: Formative Research to Build Support among Heterosexual College Students

Same-sex marriage is a controversial policy issue that affects the welfare of gay and lesbian couples throughout the USA. Considerable research examines opinions about same-sex marriage; however, studies have not investigated the covariates of the “persuadable middle”— those individuals who are neutral or unsure about their views. This group of people is often the target of same-sex marriage campaigns, yet they have received no empirical attention.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/89607/1/Woodford et al 2011 Persuadable Middle.pd

A longitudinal study of risk factors for the occurrence, duration and severity of menstrual cramps in a cohort of college women

To describe how menstrual cramps vary from cycle to cycle within a woman over time. To examine the influence of weight and lifestyle factors on occurrence, duration, and severity of menstrual pain. Design A one-year prospective menstrual diary study. Participants One hundred and sixty-five women aged 17 to 19 years entering a local university in 1985. Main outcome measures The occurrence, length, and maximum severity of pain during a menstrual period. Results Menstrual pain occurred during 71.6% of observed menstrual bleeds, most commonly beginning the first day of menses. The median duration was two days. Sixty percent of women reported at least one episode of severe pain, while 13% reported severe pain more than half the time. Earlier age at menarche and long menstrual periods increased the occurrence, duration and severity of pain. In smokers, cramps tended to last longer. Being overweight was an important risk factor for menstrual cramps and doubled the odds of having a long pain episode. Frequent alcohol consumption decreased the probability of having menstrual cramps, but in women who had pain it increased duration and severity. Physical activity was not associated with any pain parameter. Conclusions Women who have pain lasting three days are an important target group for prophylactic therapy. The occurrence and severity of menstrual cramps is influenced by potentially modifiable characteristics including weight, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Doctors may wish to counsel women presenting with dysmenorrhoea about the importance of healthy lifestyles and about the inefficacy of alcohol consumption as a treatment for dysmenorrhoea.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73220/1/j.1471-0528.1996.tb09597.x.pd

Inhibition of Intestinal Bile Acid Transporter Slc10a2 Improves Triglyceride Metabolism and Normalizes Elevated Plasma Glucose Levels in Mice

Interruption of the enterohepatic circulation of bile acids increases cholesterol catabolism, thereby stimulating hepatic cholesterol synthesis from acetate. We hypothesized that such treatment should lower the hepatic acetate pool which may alter triglyceride and glucose metabolism. We explored this using mice deficient of the ileal sodium-dependent BA transporter (Slc10a2) and ob/ob mice treated with a specific inhibitor of Slc10a2. Plasma TG levels were reduced in Slc10a2-deficient mice, and when challenged with a sucrose-rich diet, they displayed a reduced response in hepatic TG production as observed from the mRNA levels of several key enzymes in fatty acid synthesis. This effect was paralleled by a diminished induction of mature sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1c (Srebp1c). Unexpectedly, the SR-diet induced intestinal fibroblast growth factor (FGF) 15 mRNA and normalized bile acid synthesis in Slc10a2−/− mice. Pharmacologic inhibition of Slc10a2 in diabetic ob/ob mice reduced serum glucose, insulin and TGs, as well as hepatic mRNA levels of Srebp1c and its target genes. These responses are contrary to those reported following treatment of mice with a bile acid binding resin. Moreover, when key metabolic signal transduction pathways in the liver were investigated, those of Mek1/2 - Erk1/2 and Akt were blunted after treatment of ob/ob mice with the Slc10a2 inhibitor. It is concluded that abrogation of Slc10a2 reduces hepatic Srebp1c activity and serum TGs, and in the diabetic ob/ob model it also reduces glucose and insulin levels. Hence, targeting of Slc10a2 may be a promising strategy to treat hypertriglyceridemia and diabetes

Genetic Discrimination Between LADA and Childhood-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Within the MHC

OBJECTIVE The MHC region harbors the strongest loci for latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA); however, the strength of association is likely attenuated compared with that for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. In this study, we recapitulate independent effects in the MHC class I region in a population with type 1 diabetes and then determine whether such conditioning in LADA yields potential genetic discriminators between the two subtypes within this region. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Chromosome 6 was imputed using SNP2HLA, with conditional analysis performed in type 1 diabetes case subjects (n = 1,985) and control subjects (n = 2,219). The same approach was applied to a LADA cohort (n = 1,428) using population-based control subjects (n = 2,850) and in a separate replication cohort (656 type 1 diabetes case, 823 LADA case, and 3,218 control subjects). RESULTS The strongest associations in the MHC class II region (rs3957146, beta [SE] = 1.44 [0.05]), as well as the independent effect of MHC class I genes, on type 1 diabetes risk, particularly HLA-B*39 (beta [SE] = 1.36 [0.17]), were confirmed. The conditional analysis in LADA versus control subjects showed significant association in the MHC class II region (rs3957146, beta [SE] = 1.14 [0.06]); however, we did not observe significant independent effects of MHC class I alleles in LADA. CONCLUSIONS In LADA, the independent effects of MHC class I observed in type 1 diabetes were not observed after conditioning on the leading MHC class II associations, suggesting that the MHC class I association may be a genetic discriminator between LADA and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.Peer reviewe

Clostridium difficile isolates with increased sporulation: emergence of PCR ribotype 002 in Hong Kong

We identified a predominant clone of Clostridium difficile PCR ribotype 002, which was associated with an increased sporulation frequency. In 2009, 3,528 stool samples from 2,440 patients were tested for toxigenic C. difficile in a healthcare region in Hong Kong. A total of 345 toxigenic strains from 307 (13.3%) patients were found. Ribotype 002 was the predominant ribotype, which constituted 35 samples from 29 (9.4%) patients. The mean sporulation frequency of ribotype 002 was 20.2%, which was significantly higher than that of the 56 randomly selected ribotypes other than 002 as concurrent controls (3.7%, p < 0.001). Patients carrying toxigenic ribotype 002 were more frequently admitted from an elderly home (p = 0.01) and received more β-lactam antibiotics in the preceding 3 months compared with the controls (p = 0.04) . The identification of toxigenic ribotype 002 in 2009 was temporally related to a significant increase in both the incidence of toxigenic C. difficile from 0.53 to 0.95 per 1,000 admissions (p < 0.001) and the rate of positive detection from 4.17% to 6.28% (p < 0.001) between period 1 (2004–2008) and period 2 (2009). This finding should alert both the physician and the infection control team to the establishment of and possible outbreaks by ribotype 002 in our hospitals, as in the case of ribotype 027