THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICES ON NORTHERN PLAINS DRYLAND GRAIN PRODUCTION

This study examined possible economic impacts on Northern Plains grain producers of policies that could be undertaken by the United States to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The paper begins with a discussion of the potential effects of the Kyoto Protocol on prices of energy and inputs used in agricultural production. The next section describes the data and econometric models that were used to develop a field-scale, stochastic simulation model of the crop production system typical of the Northern Plains. This model is based on econometric production models estimated with a spatially referenced, statistically representative sample of farmers in Montana. The simulation analysis shows that the impacts of higher energy prices would tend to discourage the use of fallow, raise variable costs of production by 3 to 13%, and reduce net returns above variable cost by 6 to 18% in the case of spring wheat grown on fallow, Under the higher cost scenarios assumed in an analysis conducted by the Farm Bureau, production costs for spring wheat on fallow would increase by 15 to 27% and net returns would decline by 15 to 24%.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Disclosure of Maternal HIV Status to Children: To Tell or Not To Tell . . . That Is the Question

HIV-infected mothers face the challenging decision of whether to disclose their serostatus to their children. From the perspective of both mother and child, we explored the process of disclosure, providing descriptive information and examining the relationships among disclosure, demographic variables, and child adjustment. Participants were 23 mothers and one of their noninfected children (9 to 16 years of age). Sixty-one percent of mothers disclosed. Consistent with previous research, disclosure was not related to child functioning. However, children sworn to secrecy demonstrated lower social competence and more externalizing problems. Differential disclosure, which occurred in one-third of the families, was associated with higher levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Finally, knowing more than mothers had themselves disclosed was related to child maladjustment across multiple domains. Clinical implications and the need for future research are considered

Renegotiation and Relative Performance Evaluation: Why an Informative Signal may be Useless

Although Holmström's informativeness criterion provides a theoretical foundation for the controllability principle and inter firm relative performance evaluation, empirical and field studies provide only weak evidence on such practices. This paper refines the traditional informativeness criterion by abandoning the conventional full-commitment assumption. With the possibility of renegotiation, a signal's usefulness in incentive contracting depends on its information quality, not simply on whether the signal is informative. This paper derives conditions for determining when a signal is useless and when it is useful. In particular, these conditions will be met when the signal's information quality is either sufficiently poor or sufficiently rich

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregn, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments

A Systematic Review of the Probes Method in Research with Children and Families

Since their introduction, there has been wide discussion about how probes are used in human computer interaction (HCI) research. This variation can be problematic for researchers and designers who plan on using probes in the child computer interaction space, as it can be difficult to know which approach is best suited to address their design situation. In this review, we surveyed the ways that HCI researchers have used probes in studies with children and families. Based on 25 articles, we analysed the methodological decisions that researchers have taken in their empirical studies, relating to: a.) the goals for using the probes, b.) the probe itself, c.) participant involvement, and d.) the data and data use. Based on our methodological findings, we highlight four key tensions - including probes as sources of information versus creative input-and consider questions that can guide decision making for developing probes studies with children and families.</p

Can auditors be independent? – Experimental evidence on the effects of client type

Recent regulatory initiatives stress that an independent oversight board, rather than the management board, should be the client of the auditor. In an experiment, we test whether the type of client affects auditors’ independence. Unique features of the German institutional setting enable us to realistically vary the type of auditors’ client as our treatment variable: we portray the client either as the management preferring aggressive accounting or the oversight board preferring conservative accounting. We measure auditors’ perceived client retention incentives and accountability pressure in a post-experiment questionnaire to capture potential threats to independence. We find that the type of auditors’ client affects auditors’ behaviour contingent on the degree of the perceived threats to independence. Our findings imply that both client retention incentives and accountability pressure represent distinctive threats to auditors’ independence and that the effectiveness of an oversight board in enhancing auditors’ independence depends on the underlying threat

ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN UGANDA

The debate on whether climate change will impact on peoples\u2019 livelihoods and, hence, the need to act is essentially over and has instead shifted to the development of strategies needed by different regions and countries to adapt to climate change effects. However, there is still scanty information necessary to ably address climate change related issues. There is a considerable knowledge gap with respect to climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation to increased climate variability and change. In this paper, using the trade off analysis model, the impact of climate change on peoples\u2019 livelihoods and possible adaptation strategies to increase the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems in three regions of Uganda (central, Masaka and southwest) are analysed. The results show that 70-97% of households will be adversely affected by climate change in Uganda. The southwest will be most affected due to smaller farm sizes and limited livelihood alternatives. There will be no positive gains from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas for central region), in addition to adoption of grade cattle will likely be a better adaptation strategy for climate change.Le d\ue9bat sur le fait que le changement climatique pourra affecter le mode de vie des populations et, ainsi la n\ue9cessit\ue9 d\u2019agir est arriv\ue9 et consiste \ue0 d\ue9velopper des strat\ue9gies en rapport avec les besoins de diff\ue9rentes r\ue9gions et pays pour l\u2019adaptation aux effets du changement climatique. Cependant, les informations disponibles sont encore insuffisantes afin d\u2019adresser correctement les probl\ue8mes y relatifs. Il existe tant de lacunes sur les connaissances en rapport avec les impacts du changement climatique, la vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 et l\u2019adaptation \ue0 la variabilit\ue9 et changement climatique accrus. En utilisant le mod\ue8le du trade off analysis, cet article a analys\ue9 l\u2019impact du changement climatique sur le mode de vie des populations et des strat\ue9gies possibles d\u2019adaptation, afin d\u2019am\ue9liorer la r\ue9silience et la durabilit\ue9 des syst\ue8mes culturaux dans les trois r\ue9gions de l\u2019Ouganda (Centre, Masaka et sud- ouest). Les r\ue9sultats montrent que 70-97% des m\ue9nages seront touch\ue9s par des effets du changement climatique en Ouganda. Le sud-ouest sera le plus affect\ue9 par suite de tailles petites de ses exploitations et son mode de vie \ue0 moyens alternatifs limit\ue9s. L\u2019invasion des marais ne rapportera aucun gain positif qui est une des strat\ue9gies d\u2019adaptation indiqu\ue9es au stress climatique relatif. L\u2019am\ue9lioration de la productivit\ue9 des cultures importantes (bananiers au Sud-ouest, et les patates douces et le bananier dans la r\ue9gion centrale) en plus de l\u2019adoption des vaches am\ue9lior\ue9es pourra serait une meilleur strat\ue9gie d\u2019adaptation au changement climatique

The Impact of Error-Management Climate, Error Type and Error Originator on Auditors’ Reporting Errors Discovered on Audit Work Papers

We examine factors affecting the auditor’s willingness to report their own or their peers’ self-discovered errors in working papers subsequent to detailed working paper review. Prior research has shown that errors in working papers are detected in the review process; however, such detection rates only rarely exceed 50% of the seeded errors. Hence, measures that encourage auditors to be alert to their own (or their peers’) potential errors any time they revisit the audit working papers may be valuable in detecting such residual errors and potentially correcting them before damage occurs to the audit firm or its client. We hypothesize that three factors affect the auditor’s willingness to report post detailed review discovered errors: the local office error-management climate (open versus blame), the type of error (mechanical versus conceptual) and who committed the error (the individual who committed the error (self) or a peer). Local office error-management climate is said to be open and supportive where errors and mistakes are accepted as part of everyday life as long as they are learned from and not repeated. In alternative, a blame error-management climate focuses on a “get it right the first time” culture where mistakes are not tolerated and blame gets attached to those admitting to or found committing such errors. We find that error-management climate has a significant overall effect on auditor willingness to report errors, as does who committed the error originally. We find both predicted and unpredicted significant interactions among the three factors that qualify these observed significant main effects. We discuss implications for audit practice and further research

Ionic liquids at electrified interfaces

Until recently, “room-temperature” (<100–150 °C) liquid-state electrochemistry was mostly electrochemistry of diluted electrolytes(1)–(4) where dissolved salt ions were surrounded by a considerable amount of solvent molecules. Highly concentrated liquid electrolytes were mostly considered in the narrow (albeit important) niche of high-temperature electrochemistry of molten inorganic salts(5-9) and in the even narrower niche of “first-generation” room temperature ionic liquids, RTILs (such as chloro-aluminates and alkylammonium nitrates).(10-14) The situation has changed dramatically in the 2000s after the discovery of new moisture- and temperature-stable RTILs.(15, 16) These days, the “later generation” RTILs attracted wide attention within the electrochemical community.(17-31) Indeed, RTILs, as a class of compounds, possess a unique combination of properties (high charge density, electrochemical stability, low/negligible volatility, tunable polarity, etc.) that make them very attractive substances from fundamental and application points of view.(32-38) Most importantly, they can mix with each other in “cocktails” of one’s choice to acquire the desired properties (e.g., wider temperature range of the liquid phase(39, 40)) and can serve as almost “universal” solvents.(37, 41, 42) It is worth noting here one of the advantages of RTILs as compared to their high-temperature molten salt (HTMS)(43) “sister-systems”.(44) In RTILs the dissolved molecules are not imbedded in a harsh high temperature environment which could be destructive for many classes of fragile (organic) molecules

Effect of Computer-Assisted Cognitive Behavior Therapy vs Usual Care on Depression Among Adults in Primary Care: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Depression is a common disorder that may go untreated or receive suboptimal care in primary care settings. Computer-assisted cognitive behavior therapy (CCBT) has been proposed as a method for improving access to effective psychotherapy, reducing cost, and increasing the convenience and efficiency of treatment for depression. Objectives To evaluate whether clinician-supported CCBT is more effective than treatment as usual (TAU) in primary care patients with depression and to examine the feasibility and implementation of CCBT in a primary care population with substantial numbers of patients with low income, limited internet access, and low levels of educational attainment. Design, Setting, and Participants This randomized clinical trial included adult primary care patients from clinical practices at the University of Louisville who scored 10 or greater on the Patient Health Questionnaire–9 (PHQ-9) and were randomly assigned to CCBT or TAU for 12 weeks of active treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted 3 and 6 months after treatment completion. Enrollment occurred from June 24, 2016, to May 13, 2019. The last follow-up assessment was conducted on January 30, 2020. Interventions CCBT included use of the 9-lesson computer program Good Days Ahead, along with as many as 12 weekly telephonic support sessions of approximately 20 minutes with a master’s level therapist, in addition to TAU, which consisted of the standard clinical management procedures at the primary care sites. TAU was uncontrolled, but use of antidepressants and psychotherapy other than CCBT was recorded. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome measure (PHQ-9) and secondary outcome measures (Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire for negative cognitions, Generalized Anxiety Disorder–7, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale for quality of life) were administered at baseline, 12 weeks, and 3 and 6 months after treatment completion. Satisfaction with treatment was assessed with the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire–8. Results The sample of 175 patients was predominately female (147 of 174 [84.5%]) and had a high proportion of individuals who identified as racial and ethnic minority groups (African American, 44 of 162 patients who reported [27.2%]; American Indian or Alaska Native, 2 [1.2%]; Hispanic, 4 [2.5%]; multiracial, 14 [8.6%]). An annual income of less than $30 000 was reported by 88 of 143 patients (61.5%). Overall, 95 patients (54.3%) were randomly assigned to CCBT and 80 (45.7%) to TAU. Dropout rates were 22.1% for CCBT (21 patients) and 30.0% for TAU (24 patients). An intent-to-treat analysis found that CCBT led to significantly greater improvement in PHQ-9 scores than TAU at posttreatment (mean difference, −2.5; 95% CI, −4.5 to −0.8; P = .005) and 3 month (mean difference, −2.3; 95% CI, −4.5 to −0.8; P = .006) and 6 month (mean difference, −3.2; 95% CI, −4.5 to −0.8; P = .007) follow-up points. Posttreatment response and remission rates were also significantly higher for CCBT (response, 58.4% [95% CI, 46.4-70.4%]; remission, 27.3% [95% CI, 16.4%-38.2%]) than TAU (response, 33.1% [95% CI, 20.7%-45.5%]; remission, 12.0% [95% CI, 3.3%- 20.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance In this randomized clinical trial, CCBT was found to have significantly greater effects on depressive symptoms than TAU in primary care patients with depression. Because the study population included people with lower income and lack of internet access who typically have been underrepresented or not included in earlier investigations of CCBT, results suggest that this form of treatment can be acceptable and useful in diverse primary care settings. Additional studies with larger samples are needed to address implementation procedures that could enhance the effectiveness of CCBT and to examine potential factors associated with treatment outcome