Biases in FX-Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or heterogeneous. The results from our regressions strongly suggest that some forecasters combine different models of exchange rate forecasting, while others rely solely on one model. We also find evidence that some forecasters underly a bias, while others do not. Overall, our regression results indicate a high degree of heterogeneity. In conclusion, we show that the expectation formation process is not the same among all economists polled. Our findings carry importance for macroeconomic modelling: The assumption of rational agents forming homogeneous expectations is not supported by our results. --Foreign exchange market,forecast bias,random walk

From small business promotion to creating an entrepreneurial society

Mittelstandspolitik, Unternehmer, Wissenstransfer, EU-Staaten, Deutschland, Small business policy, Entrepreneurs, Knowledge transfer, EU countries, Germany

Spontaneous excitation of an accelerated multilevel atom in dipole coupling to the derivative of a scalar field

We study the spontaneous excitation of an accelerated multilevel atom in dipole coupling to the derivative of a massless quantum scalar field and separately calculate the contributions of the vacuum fluctuation and radiation reaction to the rate of change of the mean atomic energy of the atom. It is found that, in contrast to the case where a monopole like interaction between the atom and the field is assumed, there appear extra corrections proportional to the acceleration squared, in addition to corrections which can be viewed as a result of an ambient thermal bath at the Unruh temperature, as compared with the inertial case, and the acceleration induced correction terms show anisotropy with the contribution from longitudinal polarization being four times that from the transverse polarization for isotropically polarized accelerated atoms. Our results suggest that the effect of acceleration on the rate of change of the mean atomic energy is dependent not only on the quantum field to which the atom is coupled, but also on the type of the interaction even if the same quantum scalar field is considered.Comment: 11 pages, no figure

Capital emprendedor y crecimiento económico

Este trabajo muestra cómo y por qué el modelo de crecimiento de Solow es útil para relacionar capital emprendedor y crecimiento económico. El filtro del conocimiento impide la transmisión de conocimiento para su comercialización y por consiguiente debilita el impacto de las inversiones en conocimiento sobre el crecimiento económico. La actividad emprendedora es un importante mecanismo para la transmisión del conocimiento, que permite traspasar el filtro del conocimiento. La actividad emprendedora es el eslabón perdido entre las inversiones en nuevo conocimiento y el crecimiento económico. La cada vez más importante política de fomento de la actividad emprendedora promueve el crecimiento económico a través del capital emprendedor o de la capacidad de una economía para crear nuevas empresas o facilitar el crecimiento de las mismas

It’s All in Marshall: The Impact of External Economies on Regional Dynamics

Marshall's student Pigou noted: “It’s all in Marshall.” From a static point of view, this seems rather bold in a constantly changing world. However, this statement becomes more plausible in a dynamic context, where principles are subject to change. Indeed, over time, Marshall's concept of external economies gained fresh perspective as new concepts of regional characteristics and agglomeration evolved. This paper focuses on the impact of region and industry on dynamics and growth, distinguishing between industrial districts, industrial agglomerations and urban agglomerations. Based on these three types, we use a comprehensive large dataset on German regions to test the following: (1) these regions can be characterized by given location variables describing geographic location, firm structure, and surrounding location factors and (2) every region's locational variables affects its potential for dynamics.regional and urban development, agglomeration, industrial districts, location factors, external economies

Knowledge spillovers and future jobs

Globalization brings both good and bad job news. The bad news is that jobs will be outsourced from high-cost developed countries into lower-cost locations as soon as the associated economic activity becomes mechanized and predictable. The good news is that globalization creates opportunities that can be realized by people bold enough to transform new ideas and knowledge into innovations. In that way, entrepreneurs will play a vital role in creating the jobs of the future by transforming ideas and knowledge into new products and services, which will be the competitive advantage of the advanced economies

Who Do Scientists in Public Research Institutions Cooperate with Private Firms?

As public research institutions are increasingly pressured to transfer research results to industry, evaluation of their performance is not only based on their scientific output but also on their commercialization success. Although it is well known that research cooperation activities are an important channel of knowledge transfer, the knowledge about factors driving research cooperation is limited. This paper explicitly focuses on scientist perspective and investigates the relevance of academic values and perceived costs and benefits of cooperation for a scientist's decision to cooperate with private firms. Our analysis is based on two survey waves performed with scientists in the Max Planck Society in Germany which is a publicly funded research organization focusing on basic research. Our empirical results suggest that open science identity is an important determinant of scientist fundamental decision to cooperate with private firms at all. The decision to keep on cooperating with private firms is directly influenced by cost sharing incentives and by firms' confidentiality requirements. Besides these direct effects, our results suggest that perceived reputational reward, monetary benefits, and time costs associated with cooperation influence cooperation behavior indirectly through their impact on the attractiveness of cooperation. The latter is a strong and robust predictor of cooperation behavior.