Capital Tax Incidence: First Impressions from the Time Series

Aggregate time series data are used to calculate the incidence of capital taxes. Part of the analysis is borrowed from the literature on sales tax incidence, comparing pre-tax interest rates with tax rates. The other part compares tax rates with after-tax interest rates, which are measured separately and independently from pre-tax interest rates. I find a positive correlation between capital tax rates and pre-tax interest rates, and little correlation between after-tax interest rates and tax rates, but both of these findings seem to derive in part from the effect of the business cycle on tax rate measures, as opposed to a shifting of capital taxes. The empirical findings are consistent with significant capital tax shifting in the long run, little shifting in the short run, and clearly rule out over-shifting.

Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility

The stochastic discount factor seems volatile, but is this observation of any consequence for aggregate analysis of consumption, capital accumulation, output, etc.? I amend the standard frictionless model of aggregate consumption and capital accumulation with time-varying subjective probability adjustments, and obtain four implications for aggregate economic analysis. First, subjective probability adjustments add volatility to the stochastic discount factor, and can rationalize any pattern of asset prices satisfying no-arbitrage, even while capital accumulation is efficient. Second, despite its flexibility in pricing assets, the model implies that, in expected value, the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation is equal to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, and there is a simple, stable, and familiar relation between consumption growth and capital's return. Third, the expected returns on assets in small net aggregate supply are weakly (and sometimes negatively) correlated with capital's expected return, and are thereby poor predictors of aggregate consumption growth. Fourth, when it comes to assets in small net aggregate supply, capital gains reflect time varying risk premia, and returns can predict aggregate consumption growth better when the capital gain component of those returns is ignored. All four implications are consistent with empirical results reported here, and in the previous literature documenting stochastic discount factor volatility. Several recent theories of stochastic discount factor volatility can, from the aggregate point of view, be interpreted as special cases of subjective probability adjusted CCAPM.

The Expanding Social Safety Net

Inflation-adjusted spending on means-tested subsidies have increased sharply since 2007, and most of this growth was due to changes in eligibility rules, and increases in subsidies per eligible person, rather than increases in the number of people who would have been eligible under pre-recession subsidy rules. The non-elderly parts of the safety net have increased from about $10,000 per year of non- or under-employment by non-elderly household heads and spouses in 2007 to almost$15,000 per year in 2010, adjusted for inflation. From 2007 to 2010, inflation-adjusted safety net spending increased $35,000 for every added year of non-employment or under-employment. As a result, the average private returns to employment are substantially less than they were in 2007.

What do Aggregate Consumption Euler Equations Say about the Capital Income Tax Burden?

Aggregate consumption Euler equations fit financial asset return data poorly. But they fit the return on the capital stock well, which leads us to three empirical findings relating to the capital income tax burden. First, capital taxation drives a wedge between consumption growth and the expected pre-tax capital return. Second, capital taxation is the major distortion in the capital market, in the sense that most of the medium and long run deviations between expected consumption growth and the expected pre-tax capital return are associated with capital taxation. Third, consumption growth appears to be pretty elastic to the after-tax capital return (i.e., capital is elastically supplied), even while it appears inelastic to returns on various financial assets. Capital income taxes are passed on through reduced capital accumulation, or higher markups, or some combination.

Household vs. Personal Accounts of the U.S. Labor Market, 1965-2000

The empirical labor supply literature includes some simple aggregate studies, and some individual-level studies explicitly accounting for heterogeneity and the discrete choice, but sometimes leaving open the ultimately aggregate questions that motivated the study. As a middle ground, we construct household-based measures of labor supply by within-household aggregating answers to the usual weeks and hours worked questionnaire items. Household (H) measures are substantially different than the more familiar person (P) measures: H employment rates are relatively higher, with little trend, and relatively little fluctuations. From the H point of view, essentially all aggregate hours trends and fluctuations can be attributed to changes on the intensive' margin and not the extensive' margin a characterization that is opposite of that derived from P measures. The cross-H distribution of hours is richer, and less spiked, than the cross-P distribution. Labor supply is more wage elastic from an H point of view.

Inflation and the size of government

It is commonly supposed in public and academic discourse that inflation and big government are related. The authors show that economic theory delivers such a prediction only in special cases. As an empirical matter, inflation is significantly positively related to the size of government mainly when periods of war and peace are compared. The authors find a weak positive peacetime time series correlation between inflation and the size of government and a negative cross-country correlation of inflation with non-defense spending.Inflation (Finance)

Human Capital, Heterogeneity, and Estimated Degrees of Intergenerational Mobility

Some of the important implications of the parental investment model of intergenerational mobility have been derived under the assumption that parental income is the main source of heterogeneity. We explicitly model the variability and inheritability of innate' earnings ability and the variability of tastes, showing how they affect observed degrees of intergenerational consumption and earnings mobility. Heterogeneity increases the difficulty of detecting the existence of borrowing constrained families. Conversely, the presence of heterogeneity means that economic and linear statistical models of inheritance generate similar intergenerational data on consumption and earnings. In this sense, our findings offer some support for Goldberger's (1989) criticism of human capital models of inheritance. Finally, we suggest that any cross-country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility are more readily interpreted according to the heterogeneity of inherited ability, rather than optimal family responses to country-specific institutions for accumulating human capital.

Microfoundations and macro implications of indivisible labor

I show that the “indivisible labor” models of Diamond and Mirrlees (1978, 1986), Hansen (1985), Rogerson (1988), Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) and many others are, when aggregated across persons with the same marginal utility of income, equivalent to the divisible labor model of Lucas and Rapping (1969); any data on aggregate hours and earnings generated by the divisible (indivisible) model can be generated by some parameterization of the indivisible (divisible) model. The same is true when “macro” data are obtained by aggregating over time and across people. This equivalence means that the indivisibility of labor per se does not have implications for macroeconomics. Nor does indivisibility have “aggregate” normative implications.Hours of labor ; Labor supply

Log-Concave Duality in Estimation and Control

In this paper we generalize the estimation-control duality that exists in the linear-quadratic-Gaussian setting. We extend this duality to maximum a posteriori estimation of the system's state, where the measurement and dynamical system noise are independent log-concave random variables. More generally, we show that a problem which induces a convex penalty on noise terms will have a dual control problem. We provide conditions for strong duality to hold, and then prove relaxed conditions for the piecewise linear-quadratic case. The results have applications in estimation problems with nonsmooth densities, such as log-concave maximum likelihood densities. We conclude with an example reconstructing optimal estimates from solutions to the dual control problem, which has implications for sharing solution methods between the two types of problems