Construction d'un critère d'optimalité pour plans d'expériences numériques dans le cadre de la quantification d'incertitudes

http://archive.numdam.org/ARCHIVE/RSA/RSA_2005__53_4/RSA_2005__53_4_87_0/RSA_2005__53_4_87_0.pdfInternational audienceDe nombreux phénomènes physiques sont étudiés à l'aide de simulateurs numériques coûteux, avec lesquels une variable d'intérêt - ou "réponse" - est une fonction déterministe des variables d'entrée (les facteurs). Cependant, on est souvent amené à évaluer la réponse sous forme d'incertitudes du fait de la méconnaissance du niveau des facteurs. Ainsi en Exploration/Production pétrolière, on s'intéresse par exemple à la distribution de la production d'huile d'un réservoir dans dix ans. Dans cet article nous construisons un critère conçu pour planifier les simulations de sorte que la quantification des incertitudes sur la réponse soit la meilleure possible. Baptisé "MC-V optimalité", le critère obtenu est alors équivalent à un critère IMSE (Integrated Mean Squared Error) où l'intégration est effectuée selon la distribution des facteurs. La démarche sera illustrée par l'exposé du contexte de l'Exploration/Production pétrolière dont l'étude est à l'origine de ce critère

The contamination of the surface of Vesta by impacts and the delivery of the dark material

The Dawn spacecraft observed the presence of dark material, which in turn proved to be associated with OH and H-rich material, on the surface of Vesta. The source of this dark material has been identified with the low albedo asteroids, but it is still a matter of debate whether the delivery of the dark material is associated with a few large impact events, to micrometeorites or to the continuous, secular flux of impactors on Vesta. The continuous flux scenario predicts that a significant fraction of the exogenous material accreted by Vesta should be due to non-dark impactors likely analogous to ordinary chondrites, which instead represent only a minor contaminant in the HED meteorites. We explored the continuous flux scenario and its implications for the composition of the vestan regolith, taking advantage of the data from the Dawn mission and the HED meteorites. We used our model to show that the stochastic events scenario and the micrometeoritic flux scenario are natural consequences of the continuous flux scenario. We then used the model to estimate the amounts of dark and hydroxylate materials delivered on Vesta since the LHB and we showed how our results match well with the values estimated by the Dawn mission. We used our model to assess the amount of Fe and siderophile elements that the continuous flux of impactors would mix in the vestan regolith: concerning the siderophile elements, we focused our attention on the role of Ni. The results are in agreement with the data available on the Fe and Ni content of the HED meteorites and can be used as a reference frame in future studies of the data from the Dawn mission and of the HED meteorites. Our model cannot yet provide an answer to the fate of the missing non-carbonaceous contaminants, but we discuss possible reasons for this discrepancy.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication on the journal ICARUS, "Dark and Bright Materials on Vesta" special issu

Consequences of the introduction of cereal - grain legume intercrops in the supply chain. Analysis from the perspective of farmers and cooperatives

Intercropping (the simultaneous growth of 2 or more species in the same field) is one way to solve some difficulties that organic supply chain has to face. The aim of this article is to assess the consequences and the compatibility with intercrops at 2 levels: i) cropping systems of 18 farmers from north of France and ii) the logistics ofagricultural cooperatives which collect durum wheat in Midi-Pyrenees altogether with two cooperatives that already had experimented intercrops (Terrena and AgriBioUnion).The conclusions of our work is that intercrops seem a priori compatible with farmers’ cropping systems and with the presentlogistic organization of cooperatives but the main difficulty remains the feasibility and the cost in sorting out grains. Constraints and benefits of intercrops must then be analyzed more precisely at each level of the supply chain in order to collectively develop solutions

Olivine or Impact Melt: Nature of the "Orange" Material on Vesta from Dawn

NASA's Dawn mission observed a great variety of colored terrains on asteroid (4) Vesta during its survey with the Framing Camera (FC). Here we present a detailed study of the orange material on Vesta, which was first observed in color ratio images obtained by the FC and presents a red spectral slope. The orange material deposits can be classified into three types, a) diffuse ejecta deposited by recent medium-size impact craters (such as Oppia), b) lobate patches with well-defined edges, and c) ejecta rays from fresh-looking impact craters. The location of the orange diffuse ejecta from Oppia corresponds to the olivine spot nicknamed "Leslie feature" first identified by Gaffey (1997) from ground-based spectral observations. The distribution of the orange material in the FC mosaic is concentrated on the equatorial region and almost exclusively outside the Rheasilvia basin. Our in-depth analysis of the composition of this material uses complementary observations from FC, the visible and infrared spectrometer (VIR), and the Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND). Combining the interpretations from the topography, geomorphology, color and spectral parameters, and elemental abundances, the most probable analog for the orange material on Vesta is impact melt

First mineralogical maps of 4 Vesta

Before Dawn arrived at 4 Vesta only very low spatial resolution (~50 km) albedo and color maps were available from HST data. Also ground-based color and spectroscopic data were utilized as a first attempt to map Vesta’s mineralogical diversity [1-4]. The VIR spectrometer [5] onboard Dawn has ac-quired hyperspectral data while the FC camera [6] ob-tained multi-color data of the Vestan surface at very high spatial resolutions, allowing us to map complex geologic, morphologic units and features. We here re-port about the results obtained from a preliminary global mineralogical map of Vesta, based on data from the Survey orbit. This map is part of an iterative map-ping effort; the map is refined with each improvement in resolution

Investigation of grain orientations of melt-textured HTSC with addition of uranium oxide, Y2O3 and Y2BaCuO5

Local grain orientations were studied in melt-textured YBCO samples processed with various amounts of depleted uranuim oxide (DU) and Y 2O3 by means of electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis. The addition of DU leads to the formation of Ucontaining nanoparticles (Y2Ba4CuUOx) with sizes of around 200 nm, embedded in the superconducting Y-123 matrix. The orientation of the Y 2BaCuO5 (Y-211) particles, which are also present in the YBCO bulk microstructure, is generally random as is the case in other melttextured Y-123 samples. The presence of Y-211 particles, however, also affects the orientation of the Y-123 matrix in these samples

Mapping Vesta: First Results from Dawn’s Survey Orbit

The geologic objectives of the Dawn Mission [1] are to derive Vesta’s shape, map the surface geology, understand the geological context and contribute to the determination of the asteroids’ origin and evolution.Geomorphology and distribution of surface features will provide evidence for impact cratering, tectonic activity, volcanism, and regolith processes. Spectral measurements of the surface will provide evidence of the compositional characteristics of geological units. Age information, as derived from crater sizefrequency distributions, provides the stratigraphic context for the structural and compositional mapping results, thus revealing the geologic history of Vesta. We present here the first results of the Dawn mission from data collected during the approach to Vesta, and its first discrete orbit phase – the Survey Orbit, which lasts 21 days after the spacecraft had established a circular polar orbit at a radius of ~3000 km with a beta angle of 10°-15°

The scale of population structure in Arabidopsis thaliana

The population structure of an organism reflects its evolutionary history and influences its evolutionary trajectory. It constrains the combination of genetic diversity and reveals patterns of past gene flow. Understanding it is a prerequisite for detecting genomic regions under selection, predicting the effect of population disturbances, or modeling gene flow. This paper examines the detailed global population structure of Arabidopsis thaliana. Using a set of 5,707 plants collected from around the globe and genotyped at 149 SNPs, we show that while A. thaliana as a species self-fertilizes 97% of the time, there is considerable variation among local groups. This level of outcrossing greatly limits observed heterozygosity but is sufficient to generate considerable local haplotypic diversity. We also find that in its native Eurasian range A. thaliana exhibits continuous isolation by distance at every geographic scale without natural breaks corresponding to classical notions of populations. By contrast, in North America, where it exists as an exotic species, A. thaliana exhibits little or no population structure at a continental scale but local isolation by distance that extends hundreds of km. This suggests a pattern for the development of isolation by distance that can establish itself shortly after an organism fills a new habitat range. It also raises questions about the general applicability of many standard population genetics models. Any model based on discrete clusters of interchangeable individuals will be an uneasy fit to organisms like A. thaliana which exhibit continuous isolation by distance on many scales

Complex patterns of local adaptation in teosinte

Populations of widely distributed species often encounter and adapt to specific environmental conditions. However, comprehensive characterization of the genetic basis of adaptation is demanding, requiring genome-wide genotype data, multiple sampled populations, and a good understanding of population structure. We have used environmental and high-density genotype data to describe the genetic basis of local adaptation in 21 populations of teosinte, the wild ancestor of maize. We found that altitude, dispersal events and admixture among subspecies formed a complex hierarchical genetic structure within teosinte. Patterns of linkage disequilibrium revealed four mega-base scale inversions that segregated among populations and had altitudinal clines. Based on patterns of differentiation and correlation with environmental variation, inversions and nongenic regions play an important role in local adaptation of teosinte. Further, we note that strongly differentiated individual populations can bias the identification of adaptive loci. The role of inversions in local adaptation has been predicted by theory and requires attention as genome-wide data become available for additional plant species. These results also suggest a potentially important role for noncoding variation, especially in large plant genomes in which the gene space represents a fraction of the entire genome