Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Detection of a gammaretrovirus, XMRV, in the human population: Open questions and implications for xenotransplantation

XMRV (xenotropic murine leukaemia virus-related virus) is a gammaretrovirus that has been detected in human patients with prostate carcinoma, chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and also in a small percentage of clinically healthy individuals. It is not yet clear whether the distribution of this virus is primarily limited to the USA or whether it is causally associated with human disease. If future investigations confirm a broad distribution of XMRV and its association with disease, this would have an impact on xenotransplantation of porcine tissues and organs. Xenotransplantation is currently being developed to compensate for the increasing shortage of human material for the treatment of tissue and organ failure but could result in the transmission of porcine pathogens. Maintenance of pathogen-free donor animals will dramatically reduce this risk, but some of the porcine endogenous retroviruses (PERVs) found in the genome of all pigs, can produce infectious virus and infect cultured human cells. PERVs are closely related to XMRV so it is critical to develop tests that discriminate between them. Since recombination can occur between viruses, and recombinants can exhibit synergism, recipients should be tested for XMRV before xenotransplantation

The Aims of Lifelong Learning: Age-Related Effects of Training on Wages and Job Security

This study analyses the effects of training participation on wages and perceived job security for employees of different ages. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, results indicate that only younger workers benefit from training by an increase in wages, whereas older employees' worries about losing their job are reduced. This observation can also be explained by the fact that goals of training courses are related to the age of participants. Moreover, I differentiate between workers who permanently and only occasionally participate in training. The results indicate that there seem to be decreasing marginal returns to training with respect to job security

The Restriction of Zoonotic PERV Transmission by Human APOBEC3G

The human APOBEC3G protein is an innate anti-viral factor that can dominantly inhibit the replication of some endogenous and exogenous retroviruses. The prospects of purposefully harnessing such an anti-viral defense are under investigation. Here, long-term co-culture experiments were used to show that porcine endogenous retrovirus (PERV) transmission from pig to human cells is reduced to nearly undetectable levels by expressing human APOBEC3G in virus-producing pig kidney cells. Inhibition occurred by a deamination-independent mechanism, likely after particle production but before the virus could immortalize by integration into human genomic DNA. PERV inhibition did not require the DNA cytosine deaminase activity of APOBEC3G and, correspondingly, APOBEC3G-attributable hypermutations were not detected. In contrast, over-expression of the sole endogenous APOBEC3 protein of pigs failed to interfere significantly with PERV transmission. Together, these data constitute the first proof-of-principle demonstration that APOBEC3 proteins can be used to fortify the innate anti-viral defenses of cells to prevent the zoonotic transmission of an endogenous retrovirus. These studies suggest that human APOBEC3G-transgenic pigs will provide safer, PERV-less xenotransplantation resources and that analogous cross-species APOBEC3-dependent restriction strategies may be useful for thwarting other endogenous as well as exogenous retrovirus infections

The Making of Racial and Ethnic Categories: Official Statistics Reconsidered

One of the most striking features of the end of the twentieth century was the resurgence of the ethnic question in public debates, both in developing and in developed countries. Between conflicts and wars interpreted from an ethnic perspective (the Balkans and central Africa), nationalist struggles (the Basque country, Quebec and Belgium), and demands for recognition and political representation by new ethnic minorities resulting from immigration, every country is currently affected by what is commonly known as cultural pluralism (Hobsbawm 1993; Dieckhoff 2000; Faist 2009; Simon and Piché 2013). This ‘ethnic renewal’, to coin the expression used to qualify the growing interest for ethnic diversity in the 1960s in the US, is not only driven by a sort of obsession for cultural differences as an explanation for all kinds of social and political phenomenon. It derives from different legacies: from the increasing diversity of the population of countries that have undergone large immigration flows to the long lasting cohabitation of national minorities within modern Nation states, from the history of slavery to the post-colonial era. This resurgence or extension of the salience of ethnicity in most of the societies around the world can be found not only in public discourses, policy-making, scientific literature and popular representations, but also in the pivotal realm of statistics. Indeed, at the turn of century, an increasing number of countries are processing routinely data on ethnicity or race of their population. This is precisely what this book is about: ethnic and racial classifications in official statistics, as a reflection of the representations of population and an interpretation of social dynamics through different lenses

Looking Back in Anger? Retirement and Unemployment Scarring

Previous studies find that past unemployment reduces life satisfaction even after reemployment for non-monetary reasons (unemployment scarring). It is not clear, however, whether this scarring is only caused by employment-related factors, such as worsened working conditions, or increased future uncertainty as regards income and employment. Using German panel data, we identify non-employment-related scarring by examining the transition of unemployed people to retirement as a life event after which employment-related scarring does not matter anymore. We find evidence for non-employment-related non-monetary unemployment scarring for people who were unemployed for the first time in their life directly prior to retirement, but not for people with earlier unemployment experiences

Structural organization of <i>escherichia coli</i> ribosomes as determined by immuno electron microscopy

A central step towards an understanding of the structure and function of the Escherichia coli ribosome, a large multicomponent assembly, is the elucidation of the spatial arrangement of its 54 proteins and its three rRNA molecules. The structural organization of ribosomal components has been investigated by a number of experimental approaches. Specific antibodies directed against each of the 54 ribosomal proteins of Escherichia coli have been performed to examine antibody-subunit complexes by electron microscopy. The position of the bound antibody, specific for a particular protein, can be determined; it indicates the location of the corresponding protein on the ribosomal surface.The three-dimensional distribution of each of the 21 small subunit proteins on the ribosomal surface has been determined by immuno electron microscopy: the 21 proteins have been found exposed with altogether 43 antibody binding sites. Each one of 12 proteins showed antibody binding at remote positions on the subunit surface, indicating highly extended conformations of the proteins concerned within the 30S ribosomal subunit; the remaining proteins are, however, not necessarily globular in shape (Fig. 1).</jats:p