Financial consolidation and monetary policy

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionBank mergers ; Monetary policy

Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 1997

U.S. commercial banks had another excellent year in 1997. Their return on equity remained in the elevated range that it has occupied for five consecutive years, and their return on assets reached a new high. Banks maintained their profitability while also adding significantly to assets. The year's strong economic growth increased the demand for credit; banks more than met that demand, gaining market share. In addition, banks departed from the pattern of recent years by sharply increasing their holdings of securities. Compared with 1996, banks earned a somewhat lower average rate on their interest-earning assets and paid a bit more on their liabilities, but these developments were more than offset by higher fee income and increased efficiency. Loan losses remained low relative to loans.Banks and banking - Accounting ; Bank assets

Direct investment: a doubtful alternative to international debt

The paper considers a model in which private foreign investors make direct long-lived capital investments in a small developing country that is subject to stochastic shocks to production. Depending upon the preferences of the host country, we find that expropriation can occur because of either desperation or opportunism. We show that under reasonable assumptions, increased investment makes expropriation less likely to occur and that the level of investment chosen by atomistic foreign investors may be nonoptimal.International finance ; Developing countries

A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades

Point-of-care measurement of blood lactate in children admitted with febrile illness to an African District Hospital.

BACKGROUND: Lactic acidosis is a consistent predictor of mortality owing to severe infectious disease, but its detection in low-income settings is limited to the clinical sign of "deep breathing" because of the lack of accessible technology for its measurement. We evaluated the use of a point-of-care (POC) diagnostic device for blood lactate measurement to assess the severity of illness in children admitted to a district hospital in Tanzania. METHODS: Children between the ages of 2 months and 13 years with a history of fever were enrolled in the study during a period of 1 year. A full clinical history and examination were undertaken, and blood was collected for culture, microscopy, complete blood cell count, and POC measurement of blood lactate and glucose. RESULTS: The study included 3248 children, of whom 164 (5.0%) died; 45 (27.4%) of these had raised levels of blood lactate (>5 mmol/L) but no deep breathing. Compared with mortality in children with lactate levels of ≤ 3 mmol/L, the unadjusted odds of dying were 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI].8-3.0), 3.4 (95% CI, 1.5-7.5), and 8.9 (95% CI, 4.7-16.8) in children with blood lactate levels of 3.1-5.0, 5.1-8.0, or >8.0 mmol/L, respectively. The prevalence of raised lactate levels (>5 mmol/L) was greater in children with malaria than in children with nonmalarial febrile illness (P < .001) although the associated mortality was greater in slide-negative children. CONCLUSIONS: POC lactate measurement can contribute to the assessment of children admitted to hospital with febrile illness and can also create an opportunity for more hospitals in resource-poor settings to participate in clinical trials of interventions to reduce mortality associated with hyperlactatemia

Institutional Controls for Contaminated Sites: Help Or Hazard

The authors discuss the different institutional controls available to control long term site remediation of hazardous waste to prevent exposure to residual contamination

Recent changes to the Federal Reserve's survey of terms of business lending

The Federal Reserve's quarterly Survey of Terms of Business Lending, which has been conducted for more than twenty years, collects information on interest rates and other characteristics of commercial bank business loans. The survey has been changed from time to time to recognize innovations in bank lending practices and to improve the measurement of the desired information. The most recent changes took effect with the May 1997 survey. The major improvement was the addition of an item measuring loan risk. In addition, the reporting panel, which had been limited to domestically chartered commercial banks was expanded to include a sample of U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, which now account for a significant proportion of business lending to U.S. firms. This article discusses the most recent changes made to the survey and presents some information now available from the new items being reported. It also summarizes information about the use of loan risk ratings from consultations conducted with a sample of the survey respondents during the process of planning the revisions to the survey.Commercial loans

Dimpling process in cold roll metal forming by finite element modelling and experimental validation

The dimpling process is a novel cold-roll forming process that involves dimpling of a rolled flat strip prior to the roll forming operation. This is a process undertaken to enhance the material properties and subsequent products’ structural performance while maintaining a minimum strip thickness. In order to understand the complex and interrelated nonlinear changes in contact, geometry and material properties that occur in the process, it is necessary to accurately simulate the process and validate through physical tests. In this paper, 3D non-linear finite element analysis was employed to simulate the dimpling process and mechanical testing of the subsequent dimpled sheets, in which the dimple geometry and material properties data were directly transferred from the dimpling process. Physical measurements, tensile and bending tests on dimpled sheet steel were conducted to evaluate the simulation results. Simulation of the dimpling process identified the amount of non-uniform plastic strain introduced and the manner in which this was distributed through the sheet. The plastic strain resulted in strain hardening which could correlate to the increase in the strength of the dimpled steel when compared to plain steel originating from the same coil material. A parametric study revealed that the amount of plastic strain depends upon on the process parameters such as friction and overlapping gap between the two forming rolls. The results derived from simulations of the tensile and bending tests were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The validation indicates that the finite element analysis was able to successfully simulate the dimpling process and mechanical properties of the subsequent dimpled steel products