Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs

Randomized Study Comparing the Effect of Carbon Dioxide Insufflation on Veins Using 2 Types of Endoscopic and Open Vein Harvesting

Objective: The aim of the study was to assess whether the use of carbon dioxide insufflation has any impact on integrity of long saphenous vein comparing 2 types of endoscopic vein harvesting and traditional open vein harvesting. Methods: A total of 301 patients were prospectively randomized into 3 groups. Group 1 control arm of open vein harvesting (n = 101), group 2 closed tunnel (carbon dioxide) endoscopic vein harvesting (n = 100) and Group 3 open tunnel (carbon dioxide) endoscopic vein harvesting (open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting) (n = 100). Each group was assessed to determine the systemic level of partial arterial carbon dioxide, end-tidal carbon dioxide, and pH. Three blood samples were obtained at baseline, 10 minutes after start of endoscopic vein harvesting, and 10 minutes after the vein was retrieved. Vein samples were taken immediately after vein harvesting without further surgical handling to measure the histological level of endothelial damage. A modified validated endothelial scoring system was used to compare the extent of endothelial stretching and detachment. Results: The level of end-tidal carbon dioxide was maintained in the open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting and open vein harvesting groups but increased significantly in the closed tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting group (P = 0.451, P = 0.385, and P &lt; 0.001). Interestingly, partial arterial carbon dioxide also did not differ over time in the open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting group (P = 0.241), whereas partial arterial carbon dioxide reduced significantly over time in the open vein harvesting group (P = 0.001). A profound increase in partial arterial carbon dioxide was observed in the closed tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting group (P &lt; 0.001). Consistent with these patterns, only the closed tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting group demonstrated a sudden drop in pH over time (P &lt; 0.001), whereas pH remained stable for both open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting and open vein harvesting groups (P = 0.105 and P = 0.869, respectively). Endothelial integrity was better preserved in the open vein harvesting group compared with open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting or closed tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting groups (P = 0.012) and was not affected by changes in carbon dioxide or low pH. Significantly greater stretching of the endothelium was observed in the open tunnel endoscopic open tunnel endoscopic vein harvesting group compared with the other groups (P = 0.003). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the different vein harvesting techniques impact on endothelial integrity; however, this does not seem to be related to the increase in systemic absorption of carbon dioxide or to the pressurized endoscopic tunnel. The open tunnel endoscopic harvesting technique vein had more endothelial stretching compared with the closed tunnel endoscopic technique; this may be due to manual dissection of the vein. Further research is required to evaluate the long-term clinical outcome of these vein grafts.</p

The Social context of motorcycle riding and the key determinants influencing rider behavior: A qualitative investigation

Objective: Given the increasing popularity of motorcycle riding and heightened risk of injury or death associated with being a rider, this study explored rider behaviour as a determinant of rider safety and, in particular, key beliefs and motivations which influence such behaviour. To enhance the effectiveness of future education and training interventions, it is important to understand riders’ own views about what influences how they ride. Specifically, this study sought to identify key determinants of riders’ behaviour in relation to the social context of riding including social and identity-related influences relating to the group (group norms and group identity) as well as the self (moral/personal norm and self-identity). ----- ----- Method: Qualitative research was undertaken via group discussions with motorcycle riders (n = 41). Results: The findings revealed that those in the group with which one rides represent an important source of social influence. Also, the motorcyclist (group) identity was associated with a range of beliefs, expectations, and behaviours considered to be normative. Exploration of the construct of personal norm revealed that riders were most cognizant of the “wrong things to do” when riding; among those issues raised was the importance of protective clothing (albeit for the protection of others and, in particular, pillion passengers). Finally, self-identity as a motorcyclist appeared to be important to a rider’s self-concept and was likely to influence their on-road behaviour. ----- ----- Conclusion: Overall, the insight provided by the current study may facilitate the development of interventions including rider training as well as public education and mass media messages. The findings suggest that these interventions should incorporate factors associated with the social nature of riding in order to best align it with some of the key beliefs and motivations underpinning riders’ on-road behaviours

Second-harmonic generation imaging of collagen in ancient bone.

Second-harmonic generation imaging (SHG) captures triple helical collagen molecules near tissue surfaces. Biomedical research routinely utilizes various imaging software packages to quantify SHG signals for collagen content and distribution estimates in modern tissue samples including bone. For the first time using SHG, samples of modern, medieval, and ice age bones were imaged to test the applicability of SHG to ancient bone from a variety of ages, settings, and taxa. Four independent techniques including Raman spectroscopy, FTIR spectroscopy, radiocarbon dating protocols, and mass spectrometry-based protein sequencing, confirm the presence of protein, consistent with the hypothesis that SHG imaging detects ancient bone collagen. These results suggest that future studies have the potential to use SHG imaging to provide new insights into the composition of ancient bone, to characterize ancient bone disorders, to investigate collagen preservation within and between various taxa, and to monitor collagen decay regimes in different depositional environments

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

The role of safety in modal choice and shift:a transport users’ perspective in Australia

Objective: This study explored the perspectives of transport users about the role of safety in modal choice and shift and the use of safer modes of public transport. Methods: An online survey explored current modal choice and potential modal shift, consideration of safety in mode selection, and the importance of safety compared to other factors. The survey data were analysed using descriptive and significant analysis to identify key perspectives among transport users. Results: While many participants favour alternative modes over the safest public transport options, a significant percentage contemplate a modal shift with increasing interest in public transport. Although most participants recognise the importance of safety in general, it ranks low when ranked against other factors in both modal choice and modal shift considerations. However, safety gains a higher position in modal shift deliberations. Key factors influencing both modal choice and modal shift include time, journey utilisation, personal safety, cost, convenience, and mode availability. Younger participants, students, and those travelling for study purposes are shown to prioritise safety less. Students and young individuals prioritise time, while older individuals, retirees, and the self-employed prioritise convenience. Those with travel needs prioritise certainty and personal safety. Conclusions: The role of safety in the current modal choice process is limited, but it becomes more considerable for future modal shifts, especially with increased user focus on transitioning towards safer public transport modes. This, alongside the overall recognition of transport safety, presents an opportunity to mitigate road injuries through modal shift. However, policymakers need to prioritise improvements to public transport that address crucial factors influencing modal choice, as well as demographic variations, to encourage a shift towards public transport. Targeted interventions aimed at promoting safer transportation modes have the potential to alter travel behaviour, potentially leading to a reduction in road fatalities and serious injuries.</p

Impact of a school-based intervention to promote fruit intake: a cluster randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: There is evidence that fruit consumption among school children is below the recommended levels. This study aims to examine the effects of a dietary education intervention program me, held by teachers previously trained in nutrition, on the consumption of fruit as a dessert at lunch and dinner, among children 6-12 years old. STUDY DESIGN: This is a randomized trial with the schools as the unit of randomisation. METHODS: A total of 464 children (239 female, 6-12years) from seven elementary schools participated in this cluster randomized controlled trial. Three schools were allocated to the intervention and four to the control group. For the intervention schools, we delivered professional development training to school teachers (12 sessions of 3 h each). The training provided information about nutrition, healthy eating, the importance of drinking water and healthy cooking activities. After each session, teachers were encouraged to develop classroom activities focused on the learned topics. Sociodemographic was assessed at baseline and anthropometric, dietary intake and physical activity assessments were performed at baseline and at the end of the intervention. Dietary intake was evaluated by a 24-h dietary recall and fruit consumption as a dessert was gathered at lunch and dinner. RESULTS: Intervened children reported a significant higher intake in the consumption of fruit compared to the controlled children at lunch (P = 0.001) and at dinner (P = 0.012), after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further support for the success of intervention programmes aimed at improving the consumption of fruit as a dessert in children.CIEC – Research Centre on Child Studies, IE, UMinho (FCT R&D unit 317), Portuga

Reported prevalence of health conditions that affect drivers

Drivers' health and fitness are essential factors in order to predict performance outcomes and to promote road safety. It is a demonstrated fact that drivers with (physical and mental) health impairments or illnesses have more probabilities of being involved in traffic crashes and suffering (or causing) several injuries. The general objective of this study was to examine the prevalence of adverse health conditions that may affect Spanish drivers and its perceived impact on driving fitness. It was used a sample of 1200 Spanish drivers (666 men and 534 women). The only selection criteria were to be in possession of any type of driving license for vehicles other than motorcycles and to drive frequently. As a first result, 42% of the participants considered that sometimes they were not in good health conditions to drive and 1.8% considered it frequently. Furthermore, fatigue, alcohol, negative emotions, drowsiness, headaches, respiratory disease, and fever the most prevalent health conditions impairing driver's fitness. Statistical analysis revealed gender differences in reported health and fitness between male and female drivers. The main cause reported to avoid driving task was to suffer illnesses related to physical health (77.6% of drivers). Based on this study, it can be stated that the Administration should work together with the primary health care system in order to improve drivers' awareness on the risk of driving while suffering symptoms of any common physical or mental illness

Psychosocial and symbolic dimensions of the breast explored through a Visual Matrix

This article explores knowledge about the breast in the psychosocial interplay of lived experience, addressing a gap in empirical research on this highly gendered cultural trope and embodied organ. We present findings from a study that used a free-associative psychosocial method – the Visual Matrix – in order to stimulate, and capture expressions of, tacit aspects of the breast that have evaded discursive representation, as well as to generate understanding of relations between embodied and enculturated experience. Little research has been conducted on women’s affirmative experience of breasts, possibly because their bio-psycho-sociocultural complexity affords an onto-epistemological and empirical challenge. Our data revealed how an aesthetic of the grotesque in one matrix allowed the mainly female group to use humour as a “creative psychic defence” against culturally normative and idealised aspects of the breast. This was expressed through sensual symbolisations of breasted experience, affectively delivered with exuberance and joy. There was an emphasis on the breast’s potency and its potential for both abundant nurturance and potent “weaponisation”. By establishing this feminine poetic mode, Visual Matrix imagery symbolised life and death as tolerable, inseparable yet ambiguous dimensions of breasts, thereby resisting anxious splitting. The breast’s life-affirming qualities included the sensual, the visceral and the joyful – a materialsemiotic knowing. This was in marked contrast to a second matrix where associations were weighted towards the spectacular breast of an ocular-centric culture that privileges heteromasculine looking. This matrix reflected a more ambivalent and sometimes troubled response among participants. Reasons for the difference between the two matrices are discussed in terms of how they responded to the tension between embodied and enculturated experiences

The individual environment, not the family is the most important influence on preferences for common non-alcoholic beverages in adolescence

Beverage preferences are an important driver of consumption, and strong liking for beverages high in energy (e.g. sugar-sweetened beverages [SSBs]) and dislike for beverages low in energy (e.g. non-nutritive sweetened beverages [NNSBs]) are potentially modifiable risk factors contributing to variation in intake. Twin studies have established that both genes and environment play important roles in shaping food preferences; but the aetiology of variation in non-alcoholic beverage preferences is unknown. 2865 adolescent twins (18–19-years old) from the Twins Early Development Study were used to quantify genetic and environmental influence on variation in liking for seven non-alcoholic beverages: SSBs; NNSBs; fruit cordials, orange juice, milk, coffee, and tea. Maximum Likelihood Structural Equation Modelling established that beverage preferences have a moderate to low genetic basis; from 18% (95% CI: 10%, 25%) for orange juice to 42% (36%, 43%) for fruit cordials. Aspects of the environment that are not shared by twin pairs explained all remaining variance in drink preferences. The sizeable unique environmental influence on beverage preferences highlights the potential for environmental modification. Policies and guidelines to change preferences for unhealthy beverages may therefore be best directed at the wider environment