"Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve"

The economic recovery plans currently under consideration by the United States and many other countries seem to be concentrated on the possibility of using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies alone. In a new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute's Macro-Modeling Team argues that, however well coordinated, this approach will not be sufficient; what's required, they say, is a worldwide recovery of output, combined with sustainable balances in international trade.

"The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?"

This Strategic Analysis provides a retrospective view of U.S. growth in the last 10 years, showing that the authors’ previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a useful contribution to the public discussion. The analysis reviews recent events in the U.S. housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending. It argues that a significant drop in borrowing is likely to take place in the coming quarters, with severe consequences for growth and unemployment, unless (1) the U.S. dollar is allowed to continue its fall and thus complete the recovery in the U.S. external imbalance, and (2) fiscal policy shifts its course—as it did in the 2001 recession.

"The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?"

The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by the end of the decade. 2) If the trade deficit does not improve, let alone if it gets worse, there will be a large further deterioration in the US's net foreign asset position so that, with interest rates rising, net income payments from abroad will at last turn negative and the deficit in the current account as a whole could reach at least 8.5 per cent of GDP. . . .

Estatus de las tortugas marinas en Montserrat (Caribe oriental)

The status of marine turtles in Montserrat (Eastern Caribbean) is reviewed following five years of monitoring (1999–2003). The mean number of nests recorded during the annual nesting season (June–October) was 53 (± 24.9 SD; range: 13–43). In accordance with earlier reports, the nesting of hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles was confirmed on several beaches around the island. Only non–nesting emergences were documented for loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) and there was no evidence of nesting by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea); however, it is possible that additional survey effort would reveal low density nesting by these species. Officially reported turtle capture data for 1993–2003 suggest that a mean of 0.9 turtle per year (± 1.2 SD; range: 0–4) were landed island–wide, with all harvest having occurred during the annual open season (1 October to 31 May). Informed observers believe that the harvest is significantly under–reported and that fishermen avoid declaring their catch by butchering turtles at sea (both during and outside the open season). Of concern is the fact that breeding adults are potentially included in the harvest, and that the open season partially coincides with the breeding season. The present study has shown that although Montserrat is not a major nesting site for sea turtles, it remains important on a regional basis for the Eastern Caribbean.Se ha estudiado la situación de las tortugas marinas en Montserrat (Caribe oriental) mediante un seguimiento de cinco años (1999–2003). El número medio de nidos registrados durante la estación anual de nidificación (junio–octubre) fue de 53 (± 24.9 SD; rango: 13–143). En concordancia con informes anteriores, se confirmó la nidificacón de las tortugas carey (Eretmochelys imbricata) y verde (Chelonia mydas) en varias playas alrededor de la isla. En la tortuga boba (Caretta caretta) sólo se registraron salidas sin nidificación, y no se encontraron pruebas de que la tortuga laúd (Dermochelys coriacea) nidificase; sin embargo, es posible que ulteriores estudios pongan de manifiesto una baja densidad de nidificación de esta especie. Los datos oficiales de capturas de tortugas (1993–2003) sugieren que en toda la isla llegaban a tierra una media de 0.9 tortugas anuales (± 1.2 SD; rango: 0–4), produciéndose todas las capturas cuando se había levantado la veda. Observadores bien documentados creen que las cifras de recolección están significativamente falseadas a la baja, y que los pescadores evitan declarar sus capturas sacrificando las tortugas en el mar (con la veda abierta o cerrada). Es preocupante que en esta caza puedan incluirse tortugas que crían, y que el período de captura permitida coincide en parte con la estación reproductora. Este estudio demuestra que aunque Montserrat no es un lugar principal de nidificación de las tortugas marinas, sigue siendo importante a escala regional en el Caribe oriental

Cnidaria in UK coastal waters: description of spatio-temporal patterns and inter-annual variability

Note that the accepted version of this paper is available on open access in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/15245Concern has been expressed over future biogeographical expansion and habitat capitalization by species of the phylum Cnidaria, as this may have negative implications on human activities and ecosystems. There is, however, a paucity of knowledge and understanding of jellyfish ecology, in particular species distribution and seasonality. Recent studies in the UK have principally focused on the Celtic, Irish and North Seas, but all in isolation. In this study we analyse data from a publicly- driven sightings scheme across UK coastal waters (2003–2011; 9 years), with the aim of increasing knowledge on spatial and temporal patterns and trends. We describe inter-annual variability, seasonality and patterns of spatial distribution, and compare these with existing historic literature. Although incidentally-collected data lack quantification of effort, we suggest that with appropriate data management and interpretation, publicly-driven, citizen-science-based, recording schemes can provide for large-scale (spatial and temporal) coverage that would otherwise be logistically and financially unattainable. These schemes may also contribute to baseline data from which future changes in patterns or trends might be identified. We further suggest that findings from such schemes may be strengthened by the inclusion of some element of effort-corrected data collection

Oceanic long-distance navigation : do experienced migrants use the earth\u27s magnetic field?

Albatrosses and sea turtles are known to perform extremely long-distance journeys between disparate feeding areas and breeding sites located on small, isolated, oceanic islands or at specific coastal sites. These oceanic journeys, performed mainly over or through apparently featureless mediums, indicate impressive navigational abilities, and the sensory mechanisms used are still largely unknown. This research used three different approaches to investigate whether bi-coordinate navigation based on magnetic field gradients is likely to explain the navigational performance of wandering albatrosses in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans and of green turtles breeding on Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean. The possibility that magnetic field parameters can potentially be used in a bi-coordinate magnetic map by wandering albatrosses in their foraging area was investigated by analysing satellite telemetry data published in the literature. The possibilities for using bi-coordinate magnetic navigation varied widely between different areas of the Southern Oceans, indicating that a common mechanism, based on a bi-coordinate geomagnetic map alone, was unlikely for navigation in these areas. In the second approach, satellite telemetry was used to investigate whether Ascension Island green turtles use magnetic information for navigation during migration from their breeding island to foraging areas in Brazilian coastal waters. Disturbing magnets were applied to the heads and carapaces of the turtles, but these appeared to have little effect on their ability to navigate. The only possible effect observed was that some of the turtles with magnets attached were heading for foraging areas slightly south of the control turtles along the Brazilian coast. In the third approach, breeding female green turtles were deliberately displaced in the waters around Ascension Island to investigate which cues these turtles might use to locate and return to the island; the results suggested that cues transported by wind might be involved in the final stages of navigation

Marine turtle harvest in a mixed small-scale fishery: Evidence for revised management measures

Copyright © 2013 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean and Coastal Management. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean and Coastal Management, 2013, Vol. 82, pp. 34 – 42 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.05.004Small-scale fisheries (SSF) account for around half of the world's marine and inland fisheries, but their impact on the marine environment is usually under-estimated owing to difficulties in monitoring and regulation. Successful management of mixed SSF requires holistic approaches that sustainably exploit target species, consider non-target species and maintain fisher livelihoods. For two years, we studied the marine turtle fishery in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) in the Wider Caribbean Region, where the main export fisheries are queen conch (Strombus gigas) and the spiny lobster (Panulirus argus); with fin-fish, green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) taken for domestic consumption. We evaluate the turtle harvest in relation to the other fisheries and recommend legislation and management alternatives. We demonstrate the connectivity between multi-species fisheries and artisanal turtle capture: with increasing lobster catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE), hawksbill catch increased whilst green turtle catch decreased. With increasing conch CPUE, hawksbill catch declined and there was no demonstrable effect on green turtle catch. We estimate 176–324 green and 114–277 hawksbill turtles are harvested annually in TCI: the largest documented legal hawksbill fishery in the western Atlantic. Of particular concern is the capture of adult turtles. Current legislation focuses take on larger individuals that are key to population maintenance. Considering these data we recommend the introduction of maximum size limits for both species and a closed season on hawksbill take during the lobster fishing season. Our results highlight the need to manage turtles as part of a broader approach to SSF management

Fisher choice may increase prevalence of green turtle fibropapillomatosis disease

This document is protected by copyright and was first published by Frontiers. All rights reserved. It is reproduced with permission.Open access journalDisease in wildlife populations is often controlled through culling. But when healthy individuals are removed and diseased individuals are left in the population, it is anticipated that prevalence of disease increases. Although this scenario is presumably common in exploited populations where infected individuals are less marketable, it is not widely reported in the literature. We describe this scenario in a marine turtle fishery in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI), where green turtles are harvested for local consumption. During a 2-year period, we recorded the occurrence of fibropapillomatosis (FP) disease in green turtles (Chelonia mydas) captured during in-water surveys and compared it with that of turtles landed in the fishery. 13.4% (n = 32) of turtles captured during in-water surveys showed externally visible signs of FP. FP occurred at specific geographic locations where fishing also occurred. Despite the disease being prevalent in the size classes selected by fishers, FP was not present in any animals landed by the fishery (n = 162). The majority (61%) of fishers interviewed expressed that they had caught turtles with FP. Yet, 82% of those that had caught turtles with the disease chose to return their catch to the sea, thereby selectively harvesting healthy turtles and leaving those with the disease in the population. Our study illustrates that fisher choice may increase the prevalence of FP disease and highlights the importance of this widely neglected driver in the disease dynamics of exploited wildlife populations.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) CASE PhD studentshi

New constraints on muon-neutrino to electron-neutrino transitions in MINOS

This paper reports results from a search for ν_μ → ν_e transitions by the MINOS experiment based on a 7×10^(20) protons-on-target exposure. Our observation of 54 candidate ν_e events in the far detector with a background of 49.1±7.0(stat)±2.7(syst) events predicted by the measurements in the near detector requires 2sin^2(2θ_(13))sin^2θ_(23)<0.12(0.20) at the 90% C.L. for the normal (inverted) mass hierarchy at δ_(CP)=0. The experiment sets the tightest limits to date on the value of θ_(13) for nearly all values of δ_(CP) for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy and maximal sin^2(2θ_(23))