Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope

We demonstrate how suppliers can take strategic speculative positions in derivatives markets to soften competition in the spot market. In our game, suppliers first choose a portfolio of call options and then compete with supply functions. In equilibrium firms sell forward contracts and buy call options to commit to downward sloping supply functions. Although this strategy is risky, it reduces the elasticity of the residual demand of competitors, who increase their mark-ups in response. We show that this type of strategic speculation increases the level and volatility of commodity prices and decreases welfare

Mixed Strategies in Discriminatory Divisible-good Auctions

Author: Edward J. Anderson, Pär Holmberg and Andrew B. Philpott Keywords: Pay-as-bid Auction; Divisible Good Auction; Mixed Strategy Equilibria; Wholesale Electricity Markets Pages: 71 Published: November 24, 2009 JEL-codes: D43; D44; C72 Download Wp814.pdf (756 kB) Abstract Using the concept of market-distribution functions, we derive general optimality conditions for discriminatory divisible-good auctions, which are also applicable to Bertrand games and non-linear pricing. We introduce the concept of offer distribution function to analyze randomized offer curves, and characterize mixed-strategy Nash equilibria for pay-as-bid auctions where demand is uncertain and costs are common knowledge; a setting for which pure-strategy supply function equilibria typically do not exist. We generalize previous results on mixtures over horizontal offers as in Bertrand-Edgeworth games, but more importantly we characterize novel mixtures over partly increasing supply functions.Pay-as-bid Auction; Divisible Good Auction; Mixed Strategy Equilibria; Wholesale Electricity Markets

An Astronomical Pattern-Matching Algorithm for Automated Identification of Whale Sharks

The largest shark species alive today, whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) are rare and poorly studied. Directed fisheries, high value in international trade, a highly migratory nature, and generally low abundance make this species vulnerable to exploitation. Mark- and-recapture studies have provided our current understanding of whale shark demographics and life history, but conventional tagging has met with limited success. To aid in conservation and management efforts, and to further our knowledge of whale shark biology, an identification technology that maximizes the scientific value of individual sighting is needed

The Geneva-Copenhagen Survey of the Solar neighbourhood II. New uvby calibrations and rediscussion of stellar ages, the G dwarf problem, age-metallicity diagram, and heating mechanisms of the disk

Ages, metallicities, space velocities, and Galactic orbits of stars in the Solar neighbourhood are fundamental observational constraints on models of galactic disk evolution. We aim to consolidate the calibrations of uvby photometry into Te, [Fe/H], distance, and age for F and G stars and rediscuss the results of the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (Nordstrom et al. 2004; GCS) in terms of the evolution of the disk. We substantially improve the Te and [Fe/H] calibrations for early F stars, where spectroscopic temperatures have large systematic errors. Our recomputed ages are in excellent agreement with the independent determinations by Takeda et al. (2007), indicating that isochrone ages can now be reliably determined. The revised G-dwarf metallicity distribution remains incompatible with closed-box models, and the age-metallicity relation for the thin disk remains almost flat, with large and real scatter at all ages (sigma intrinsic = 0.20 dex). Dynamical heating of the thin disk continues throughout its life; specific in-plane dynamical effects dominate the evolution of the U and V velocities, while the W velocities remain random at all ages. When assigning thick and thin-disk membership for stars from kinematic criteria, parameters for the oldest stars should be used to characterise the thin disk.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A on June 20, 200

The Hamburg/ESO R-process Enhanced Star survey (HERES) II. Spectroscopic analysis of the survey sample

We present the results of analysis of ``snapshot'' spectra of 253 metal-poor halo stars -3.8 < [Fe/H] < -1.5 obtained in the HERES survey. The spectra are analysed using an automated line profile analysis method based on the Spectroscopy Made Easy codes of Valenti & Piskunov. Elemental abundances of moderate precision have been obtained for 22 elements, C, Mg, Al, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, and Eu, where detectable. Among the sample of 253 stars, we find 8 r-II stars and 35 r-I stars. We also find three stars with strong enhancements of Eu which are s-process rich. A significant number of new very metal-poor stars are confirmed: 49 stars with [Fe/H] < -3 and 181 stars with -3 < [Fe/H] < -2. We find one star with [Fe/H] < -3.5. We find the scatter in the abundance ratios of Mg, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Fe, Co, and Ni, with respect to Fe and Mg, to be similar to the estimated relative errors and thus the cosmic scatter to be small, perhaps even non-existent. The elements C, Sr, Y, Ba and Eu, and perhaps Zr, show scatter at [Fe/H] < -2.5 significantly larger than can be explained from the errors in the analysis, implying scatter which is cosmic in origin. Significant scatter is observed in abundance ratios between light and heavy neutron-capture elements at low metallicity and low levels of r-process enrichment. (*** abridged ***)Comment: Accepted for A&A; 31 pages, 2 electronic tables presently available at http://www.astro.uu.se/~barklem/papers/heres_tables.tar.gz ; Minor corrections adde

Jeans instability of a galactic disk embedded in a live dark halo

We investigate the Jeans instability of a galactic disk embedded in a dynamically responsive dark halo. It is shown that the disk-halo system becomes nominally Jeans unstable. On small scales the instability is suppressed, if the Toomre stability index Q_T is higher than a certain threshold, but on large scales the Jeans instability sets invariably in. However, using a simple self-consistent disk-halo model it is demonstrated that this occurs on scales which are much larger than the system so that this is indeed only a nominal effect. From a practical point of view the Jeans instability of galactic disks is not affected by a live dark halo.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Astron. Astrophy

Galactic Extinction from Colors and Counts of Field Galaxies in WFPC2 Frames: An Application to GRB 970228

We develop the ``simulated extinction method'' to measure average foreground Galactic extinction from field galaxy number-counts and colors. The method comprises simulating extinction in suitable reference fields by changing the isophotal detection limit. This procedure takes into account selection effects, in particular, the change in isophotal detection limit (and hence in isophotal magnitude completeness limit) with extinction, and the galaxy color--magnitude relation. We present a first application of the method to the HST WFPC2 images of the gamma-ray burster GRB 970228. Four different WFPC2 high-latitude fields, including the HDF, are used as reference to measure the average extinction towards the GRB in the F606W passband. From the counts, we derive an average extinction of A_V = 0.5 mag, but the dispersion of 0.4 mag between the estimates from the different reference fields is significantly larger than can be accounted by Poisson plus clustering uncertainties. Although the counts differ, the average colors of the field galaxies agree well. The extinction implied by the average color difference between the GRB field and the reference galaxies is A_V = 0.6 mag, with a dispersion in the estimated extinction from the four reference fields of only 0.1 mag. All our estimates are in good agreement with the value of 0.81\pm0.27 mag obtained by Burstein & Heiles, and with the extinction of 0.78\pm0.12 measured by Schlegel et al. from maps of dust IR emission. However, the discrepancy between the widely varying counts and the very stable colors in these high-latitude fields is worth investigating.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures; submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Galactic kinematics with modified Newtonian dynamics

We look for observational signatures that could discriminate between Newtonian and modified Newtonian (MOND) dynamics in the Milky Way, in view of the advent of large astrometric and spectroscopic surveys. Indeed, a typical signature of MOND is an apparent disk of "phantom" dark matter, which is uniquely correlated with the visible disk-density distribution. Due to this phantom dark disk, Newtonian models with a spherical halo have different signatures from MOND models close to the Galactic plane. The models can thus be differentiated by measuring dynamically (within Newtonian dynamics) the disk surface density at the solar radius, the radial mass gradient within the disk, or the velocity ellipsoid tilt angle above the Galactic plane. Using the most realistic possible baryonic mass model for the Milky Way, we predict that, if MOND applies, the local surface density measured by a Newtonist will be approximately 78 Msun/pc2 within 1.1 kpc of the Galactic plane, the dynamically measured disk scale-length will be enhanced by a factor of 1.25 with respect to the visible disk scale-length, and the local vertical tilt of the velocity ellipsoid at 1 kpc above the plane will be approximately 6 degrees. None of these tests can be conclusive for the present-day accuracy of Milky Way data, but they will be of prime interest with the advent of large surveys such as GAIA.Comment: 5 page