Change-point detection in the marginal distribution of a linear process

© 2016, Institute of Mathematical Statistics. All rights reserved. The subject of this paper is the detection of a change in the marginal distribution of a stationary linear process. By considering the marginal distribution, the change-point model can simultaneously incorporate any change in the coefficients and/or the innovations of the linear process. Furthermore, the change point can be random and data dependent. The key is an analysis of the asymptotic behaviour of the sequential empirical process, both with and without a change point. Our results hold under very mild conditions on the existence of any moment of the innovations and a corresponding condition of summability of the coefficients

The Quaternary lions of Ukraine and a trend of decreasing size in Panthera spelaea (advance online)

The fossil record of the cave lion, Panthera spelaea, suggests a gradual decrease in body size, the process peaking just before the extinction of the species at the end of the Late Pleistocene. Such an evolutionary trend appears rather unusual for a large felid species and requires further investigation. This study reviews the cave lions of Ukraine, whose fossils are known from 46 localities dated from 800 kyr to 18–17 kyr ago, with a special emphasis on size changes through time. We describe several important finds including those of Panthera spelaea fossilis from Sambir, Panthera spelaea ssp. from Bilykh Stin Cave and Panthera spelaea spelaea from Kryshtaleva Cave. We make subspecific identifications of specimens from the region and focus on their size characteristics. Our analysis of Ukrainian cave lions agrees with the temporal trend of decreasing size, particularly accelerating during MIS 2, as exemplified by the extremely small female skull from Kryshtaleva Cave. We provide a direct AMS date for this specimen (22.0–21.5 cal kyr BP), which suggests that the Kryshtaleva lioness must have belonged to a Panthera spelaea spelaea population forced south by the spreading ice sheet. We discuss some palaeoecological aspects of the evolutionary history and eventual extinction of the cave lion. Finally, we review the subfossil records of the extant lion Panthera leo known from several Ukrainian sites archaeologically dated to 6.4–2.0 kyr BP. These finds most probably represent the Persian lion Panthera leo persica

Neural correlates of evidence accumulation during value-based decisions revealed via simultaneous EEG-fMRI

Current computational accounts posit that, in simple binary choices, humans accumulate evidence in favour of the different alternatives before committing to a decision. Neural correlates of this accumulating activity have been found during perceptual decisions in parietal and prefrontal cortex; however the source of such activity in value-based choices remains unknown. Here we use simultaneous EEG–fMRI and computational modelling to identify EEG signals reflecting an accumulation process and demonstrate that the within- and across-trial variability in these signals explains fMRI responses in posterior-medial frontal cortex. Consistent with its role in integrating the evidence prior to reaching a decision, this region also exhibits task-dependent coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the striatum, brain areas known to encode the subjective value of the decision alternatives. These results further endorse the proposition of an evidence accumulation process during value-based decisions in humans and implicate the posterior-medial frontal cortex in this process