Yield gap and the shares of climate and crop management in yield and yield variability of staple crops in West Africa. [O-3330b-01]

" Yield gap " (Yg) is a key concept of agricultural science for identifying the room for improvement of yields through better management of the agroecosystem. in rainfed agriculture Yg is the difference between actual yield (Ya) and the theoretical water limited yield (Yw) that would be achieved if solar radiation, temperature and precipitations were the only factor limiting the crop's growth and yield. Changes in Yw over regions and years are due to climate-soil interactions that are not easily modified by crop management, whereas changes in Yg are due to limiting factors that are typically within the scope of crop management such as nutrient availability, weeds, and pests. We provide an example of yield gap estimates in semi-arid a frica, using yield and other agronomic data collected in famers' fields of Senegal in 1990 and 1991 and from 2006 to 2012. i t illustrates how contrarily to what most people would expect climate is not, on average, what most limits yields in that region: yet, actual yields are on average a quarter of water limited yield, and this is due to constraints whose reduction is technically possible albeit subject to the economic and environmental relevance of doing so. Most studies dealing with the impact of climate change on agriculture in West a frica compare Yw under present and future climate as predicted by climate models. t he magnitude of those predicted long term changes in Yw by 2050 is down to –20% in the worst scenario combining a +6°C change with a -20% rainfall change. s uch changes in water limited yields are certainly concerning, but they are remarkably small compared to the potential +390% increase that would result from closing the current yield gap. When considering yield variations observed across plots and years, and not anymore regional averages over a few years, what strikes is the stability of observed yields compared to variations of Yw. We used crop model simulations with historical series of 20 years of weather data to compare yield distributions over years of a crop grown using 3 contrasted levels of fertilisation and no incidence of weeds, pests or diseases. For each fertilisation level, the simulated yield reached a maximum value the 'best year' of the series. t he three fertilisation levels were chosen so that the maximum simulated yield reached 0.25 Yw, 0.5 Yw, and 0.75 Yw respectively. t he resulting simulated yield distributions show that even if management allows increasing the median yield, in many years the climate is the main limiting factor and fertilising has no or a slight impact only. i n other words, the way the current climate limits crop production in this region is by making uncertain the output of investing for high yields. Buying fertilizers or working hard for manure collection, transport and distribution do not translate, a certain number of years, into more production. For farmers struggling for the daily subsistence of their family, that kind of risk may not be justified while alternative use of family resources in cash and labour force provide less risky ways to produce subsistence means. Until recently, in many farming systems of West africa, the growth in food needs due to population growth in rural areas was matched thanks to increases in cultivated or pasted areas rather than increases in crop yields or livestock pressure on land (i.e extension rather than intensification of crop or livestock activities). When rural families reached the limits of this strategy, migrations of many kinds of distance and duration became the adjustment variable to the gap between resources available from farming and population needs. T his suggests that for many, it is less risky to leave home than to intensify cropping or livestock systems. Anyway, as job opportunities for migrants from the rural zones are currently low in West african cities and elsewhere, there are legitimate concerns about the way this strategy may soon reach its limit as well. i n terms of climate change, the worst scenario for farmers of that region would be if crop intensification became even more risky under future climate than at present. t here is thus an urgent need for joint agronomic and climate research to go beyond the prediction of Yw or of yield under unchanged crop management and determine whether or not the future climate will increase the yield risks associated with crop intensification in that region. But this should not divert from designing and implementing policies incentive to such intensification under present climate, as this might be much easier now than later. (Texte intégral

Relative performance of indoor vector control interventions in the Ifakara and the West African experimental huts.

BACKGROUND: West African and Ifakara experimental huts are used to evaluate indoor mosquito control interventions, including spatial repellents and insecticides. The two hut types differ in size and design, so a side-by-side comparison was performed to investigate the performance of indoor interventions in the two hut designs using standard entomological outcomes: relative indoor mosquito density (deterrence), exophily (induced exit), blood-feeding and mortality of mosquitoes. METHODS: Metofluthrin mosquito coils (0.00625% and 0.0097%) and Olyset® Net vs control nets (untreated, deliberately holed net) were evaluated against pyrethroid-resistant Culex quinquefasciatus in Benin. Four experimental huts were used: two West African hut designs and two Ifakara hut designs. Treatments were rotated among the huts every four nights until each treatment was tested in each hut 52 times. Volunteers rotated between huts nightly. RESULTS: The Ifakara huts caught a median of 37 Culex quinquefasciatus/ night, while the West African huts captured a median of 8/ night (rate ratio 3.37, 95% CI: 2.30-4.94, P  4-fold higher mosquito exit relative to the West African huts (odds ratio 4.18, 95% CI: 3.18-5.51, P < 0.0001), regardless of treatment. While blood-feeding rates were significantly higher in the West African huts, mortality appeared significantly lower for all treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The Ifakara hut captured more Cx. quinquefasciatus that could more easily exit into windows and eave traps after failing to blood-feed, compared to the West African hut. The higher mortality rates recorded in the Ifakara huts could be attributable to the greater proportions of Culex mosquitoes exiting and probably dying from starvation, relative to the situation in the West African huts

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small

Empirical and theoretical investigation into the potential impacts of insecticide resistance on the effectiveness of insecticide-treated bed nets.

In spite of widespread insecticide resistance in vector mosquitoes throughout Africa, there is limited evidence that long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs) are failing to protect against malaria. Here, we showed that LLIN contact in the course of host-seeking resulted in higher mortality of resistant Anopheles spp. mosquitoes than predicted from standard laboratory exposures with the same net. We also found that sublethal contact with an LLIN caused a reduction in blood feeding and subsequent host-seeking success in multiple lines of resistant mosquitoes from the laboratory and the field. Using a transmission model, we showed that when these LLIN-related lethal and sublethal effects were accrued over mosquito lifetimes, they greatly reduced the impact of resistance on malaria transmission potential under conditions of high net coverage. If coverage falls, the epidemiological impact is far more pronounced. Similarly, if the intensity of resistance intensifies, the loss of malaria control increases nonlinearly. Our findings help explain why insecticide resistance has not yet led to wide-scale failure of LLINs, but reinforce the call for alternative control tools and informed resistance management strategies

Population genetics and reproductive strategies of african trypanosomes : revisiting available published data

Trypanosomatidae are a dangerous family of Euglenobionta parasites that threaten the health and economy of millions of people around the world. More precisely describing the population biology and reproductive mode of such pests is not only a matter of pure science, but can also be useful for understanding parasite adaptation, as well as how parasitism, specialization (parasite specificity), and complex life cycles evolve over time. Studying this parasite&#8217;s reproductive strategies and population structure can also contribute key information to the understanding of the epidemiology of associated diseases; it can also provide clues for elaborating control programs and predicting the probability of success for control campaigns (such as vaccines and drug therapies), along with emergence or re-emergence risks. Population genetics tools, if appropriately used, can provide precise and useful information in these investigations. In this paper, we revisit recent data collected during population genetics surveys of different Trypanosoma species in sub-Saharan Africa. Reproductive modes and population structure depend not only on the taxon but also on the geographical location and data quality (absence or presence of DNA amplification failures). We conclude on issues regarding future directions of research, in particular vis-à-vis genotyping and sampling strategies, which are still relevant yet, too often, neglected issues

Trypanosoma brucei gambiense group 1 is distinguished by a unique amino acid substitution in the HpHb receptor implicated in human serum resistance

Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (Tbr) and T. b. gambiense (Tbg), causative agents of Human African Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) in Africa, have evolved alternative mechanisms of resisting the activity of trypanosome lytic factors (TLFs), components of innate immunity in human serum that protect against infection by other African trypanosomes. In Tbr, lytic activity is suppressed by the Tbr-specific serum-resistance associated (SRA) protein. The mechanism in Tbg is less well understood but has been hypothesized to involve altered activity and expression of haptoglobin haemoglobin receptor (HpHbR). HpHbR has been shown to facilitate internalization of TLF-1 in T.b. brucei (Tbb), a member of the T. brucei species complex that is susceptible to human serum. By evaluating the genetic variability of HpHbR in a comprehensive geographical and taxonomic context, we show that a single substitution that replaces leucine with serine at position 210 is conserved in the most widespread form of Tbg (Tbg group 1) and not found in related taxa, which are either human serum susceptible (Tbb) or known to resist lysis via an alternative mechanism (Tbr and Tbg group 2). We hypothesize that this single substitution contributes to reduced uptake of TLF and thus may play a key role in conferring serum resistance to Tbg group 1. In contrast, similarity in HpHbR sequence among isolates of Tbg group 2 and Tbb/Tbr provides further evidence that human serum resistance in Tbg group 2 is likely independent of HpHbR functio

Discovery of mating in the major African livestock pathogen Trypanosoma congolense

The protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma congolense, is one of the most economically important pathogens of livestock in Africa and, through its impact on cattle health and productivity, has a significant effect on human health and well being. Despite the importance of this parasite our knowledge of some of the fundamental biological processes is limited. For example, it is unknown whether mating takes place. In this paper we have taken a population genetics based approach to address this question. The availability of genome sequence of the parasite allowed us to identify polymorphic microsatellite markers, which were used to genotype T. congolense isolates from livestock in a discrete geographical area of The Gambia. The data showed a high level of diversity with a large number of distinct genotypes, but a deficit in heterozygotes. Further analysis identified cryptic genetic subdivision into four sub-populations. In one of these, parasite genotypic diversity could only be explained by the occurrence of frequent mating in T. congolense. These data are completely inconsistent with previous suggestions that the parasite expands asexually in the absence of mating. The discovery of mating in this species of trypanosome has significant consequences for the spread of critical traits, such as drug resistance, as well as for fundamental aspects of the biology and epidemiology of this neglected but economically important pathogen

Accuracy of five algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda