Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio

Atmospheric histories and growth trends of C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16 and C8F18

Atmospheric observations and trends are presented for the high molecular weight perfluorocarbons (PFCs): decafluorobutane (C4F10), dodecafluoropentane (C5F12), tetradecafluorohexane (C6F14), hexadecafluoroheptane (C7F16) and octadecafluorooctane (C8F18). Their atmospheric histories are based on measurements of 36 Northern Hemisphere and 46 Southern Hemisphere archived air samples collected between 1973 to 2011 using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) 'Medusa' preconcentration gas chromatography-mass spectrometry systems. A new calibration scale was prepared for each PFC, with estimated accuracies of 6.8% for C4F10, 7.8% for C5F12, 4.0% for C6F14, 6.6% for C7F16 and 7.9% for C8F18. Based on our observations the 2011 globally averaged dry air mole fractions of these heavy PFCs are: 0.17 parts-per-trillion (ppt, i.e., parts per 10(12)) for C4F10, 0.12 ppt for C5F12, 0.27 ppt for C6F14, 0.12 ppt for C7F16 and 0.09 ppt for C8F18. These atmospheric mole fractions combine to contribute to a global average radiative forcing of 0.35 mW m(-2), which is 6% of the total anthropogenic PFC radiative forcing (Montzka and Reimann, 2011; Oram et al., 2012). The growth rates of the heavy perfluorocarbons were largest in the late 1990s peaking at 6.2 parts per quadrillion (ppq, i.e., parts per 10(15)) per year (yr) for C4F10, at 5.0 ppq yr(-1) for C5F12 and 16.6 ppq yr(-1) for C6F14 and in the early 1990s for C7F16 at 4.7 ppq yr(-1) and in the mid 1990s for C8F18 at 4.8 ppq yr(-1). The 2011 globally averaged mean atmospheric growth rates of these PFCs are subsequently lower at 2.2 ppq yr(-1) for C4F10, 1.4 ppq yr(-1) for C5F12, 5.0 ppq yr(-1) for C6F14, 3.4 ppq yr(-1) for C7F16 and 0.9 ppq yr(-1) for C8F18. The more recent slowdown in the growth rates suggests that emissions are declining as compared to the 1980s and 1990s.</p

Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.</p

Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for atmospheric trace gas inversions. This method is used to estimate emissions of trace gases as well as "hyper-parameters" that characterize the probability density functions (PDFs) of the a priori emissions and model-measurement covariances. By exploring the space of "uncertainties in uncertainties", we show that the hierarchical method results in a more complete estimation of emissions and their uncertainties than traditional Bayesian inversions, which rely heavily on expert judgment. We present an analysis that shows the effect of including hyper-parameters, which are themselves informed by the data, and show that this method can serve to reduce the effect of errors in assumptions made about the a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties. We then apply this method to the estimation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emissions over 2012 for the regions surrounding four Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations. We find that improper accounting of model representation uncertainties, in particular, can lead to the derivation of emissions and associated uncertainties that are unrealistic and show that those derived using the hierarchical method are likely to be more representative of the true uncertainties in the system. We demonstrate through this SF6 case study that this method is less sensitive to outliers in the data and to subjective assumptions about a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties than traditional methods

Exploring causes of interannual variability in the seasonal cycles of tropospheric nitrous oxide

Seasonal cycles in the mixing ratios of tropospheric nitrous oxide (N[subscript 2]O) are derived by detrending long-term measurements made at sites across four global surface monitoring networks. The detrended monthly data display large interannual variability, which at some sites challenges the concept of a "mean" seasonal cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between polar winter lower stratospheric temperature and detrended N[subscript 2]O data, around the month of the seasonal minimum, provide empirical evidence for a stratospheric influence, which varies in strength from year to year and can explain much of the interannual variability in the surface seasonal cycle. Even at sites where a strong, competing, regional N[subscript 2]O source exists, such as from coastal upwelling at Trinidad Head, California, the stratospheric influence must be understood to interpret the biogeochemical signal in monthly mean data. In the Southern Hemisphere, detrended surface N[subscript 2]O monthly means are correlated with polar spring lower stratospheric temperature in months preceding the N[subscript 2]O minimum, providing empirical evidence for a coherent stratospheric influence in that hemisphere as well, in contrast to some recent atmospheric chemical transport model (ACTM) results. Correlations between the phasing of the surface N[subscript 2]O seasonal cycle in both hemispheres and both polar lower stratospheric temperature and polar vortex break-up date provide additional support for a stratospheric influence. The correlations discussed above are generally more evident in high-frequency in situ data than in data from weekly flask samples. Furthermore, the interannual variability in the N[subscript 2]O seasonal cycle is not always correlated among in situ and flask networks that share common sites, nor do the mean seasonal amplitudes always agree. The importance of abiotic influences such as the stratospheric influx and tropospheric transport on N[subscript 2]O seasonal cycles suggests that, at sites remote from local sources, surface N[subscript 2]O mixing ratio data by themselves are unlikely to provide information about seasonality in surface sources, e.g., for atmospheric inversions, unless the ACTMs employed in the inversions accurately account for these influences. An additional abioitc influence is the seasonal ingassing and outgassing of cooling and warming surface waters, which creates a thermal signal in tropospheric N[subscript 2]O that is of particular importance in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, where it competes with the biological ocean source signal.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant NNX08AB48G

Visualizing stromal cell dynamics in different tumor microenvironments by spinning disk confocal microscopy

The tumor microenvironment consists of stromal cells and extracellular factors that evolve in parallel with carcinoma cells. To gain insights into the activities of stromal cell populations, we developed and applied multicolor imaging techniques to analyze the behavior of these cells within different tumor microenvironments in the same live mouse. We found that regulatory T-lymphocytes (Tregs) migrated in proximity to blood vessels. Dendriticlike cells, myeloid cells and carcinoma-associated fibroblasts all exhibited higher motility in the microenvironment at the tumor periphery than within the tumor mass. Since oxygen levels differ between tumor microenvironments, we tested if acute hypoxia could account for the differences in cell migration. Direct visualization revealed that Tregs ceased migration under acute systemic hypoxia, whereas myeloid cells continued migrating. In the same mouse and microenvironment, we experimentally subdivided the myeloid cell population and revealed that uptake of fluorescent dextran defined a low-motility subpopulation expressing markers of tumor-promoting, alternatively activated macrophages. In contrast, fluorescent anti-Gr1 antibodies marked myeloid cells patrolling inside tumor vessels and in the stroma. Our techniques allow real-time combinatorial analysis of cell populations based on spatial location, gene expression, behavior and cell surface molecules within intact tumors. The techniques are not limited to investigations in cancer, but could give new insights into cell behavior more broadly in development and disease

Isotopic ordering in atmospheric O2 as a tracer of ozone photochemistry and the tropical atmosphere

The distribution of isotopes within O2 molecules can be rapidly altered when they react with atomic oxygen. This mechanism is globally important: while other contributions to the global budget of O2 impart isotopic signatures, the O(3P) + O2 reaction resets all such signatures in the atmosphere on subdecadal timescales. Consequently, the isotopic distribution within O2 is determined by O3 photochemistry and the circulation patterns that control where that photochemistry occurs. The variability of isotopic ordering in O2 has not been established, however. We present new measurements of 18O18O in air (reported as Δ36 values) from the surface to 33 km altitude. They confirm the basic features of the clumped-isotope budget of O2: Stratospheric air has higher Δ36 values than tropospheric air (i.e., more 18O18O), reflecting colder temperatures and fast photochemical cycling of O3. Lower Δ36 values in the troposphere arise from photochemistry at warmer temperatures balanced by the influx of high-Δ36 air from the stratosphere. These observations agree with predictions derived from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which provides additional insight. We find a link between tropical circulation patterns and regions where Δ36 values are reset in the troposphere. The dynamics of these regions influences lapse rates, vertical and horizontal patterns of O2 reordering, and thus the isotopic distribution toward which O2 is driven in the troposphere. Temporal variations in Δ36 values at the surface should therefore reflect changes in tropospheric temperatures, photochemistry, and circulation. Our results suggest that the tropospheric O3 burden has remained within a ±10% range since 1978

HFC-23 (CHF3) emission trend response to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production and recent HFC-23 emission abatement measures

HFC-23 (also known as CHF3 [CHF subscript 3], fluoroform or trifluoromethane) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 for a 100-year time horizon. It is an unavoidable by-product of HCFC-22 (CHClF2 [CHCIF subscript 2], chlorodifluoromethane) production. HCFC-22, an ozone depleting substance (ODS), is used extensively in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning, in the extruded polystyrene (XPS) foam industries (dispersive applications) and also as a feedstock in fluoropolymer manufacture (a non-dispersive use). Aside from small markets in specialty uses, HFC-23 has historically been considered a waste gas that was, and often still is, simply vented to the atmosphere. Efforts have been made in the past two decades to reduce HFC-23 emissions, including destruction (incineration) in facilities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and by process optimization and/or voluntary incineration by most producers in developed countries. We present observations of lower-tropospheric mole fractions of HFC-23 measured by "Medusa" GC/MSD instruments from ambient air sampled in situ at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network of five remote sites (2007–2009) and in Cape Grim air archive (CGAA) samples (1978–2009) from Tasmania, Australia. These observations are used with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and an inverse method to produce model mole fractions and a "top-down" HFC-23 emission history. The model 2009 annual mean global lower-tropospheric background abundance is 22.6 (±0.2) pmol mol−1 [mol superscript -1]. The derived HFC-23 emissions show a "plateau" during 1997–2003, followed by a rapid ~50% increase to a peak of 15.0 (+1.3/−1.2) Gg/yr in 2006. Following this peak, emissions of HFC-23 declined rapidly to 8.6 (+0.9/−1.0) Gg/yr in 2009, the lowest annual emission of the past 15 years. We derive a 1990–2008 "bottom-up" HFC-23 emission history using data from the United Nations Environment Programme and the UNFCCC. Comparison with the top-down HFC-23 emission history shows agreement within the stated uncertainties. In the 1990s, HFC-23 emissions from developed countries dominated all other sources, then began to decline and eventually became fairly constant during 2003–2008. By this point, with developed countries' emissions essentially at a plateau, the major factor controlling the annual dynamics of global HFC-23 emissions became the historical rise of developing countries' HCFC-22 dispersive use production, which peaked in 2007. Thereafter in 2007–2009, incineration through CDM projects became a larger factor, reducing global HFC-23 emissions despite rapidly rising HCFC-22 feedstock production in developing countries.NASA Upper Atmospheric Research Program (Grant NNX07AE89G)NASA Upper Atmospheric Research Program (Grant NNX07AF09G)NASA Upper Atmospheric Research Program (Grant NNX07AE87G

Changing trends and emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and their hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) replacements

United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5-12669)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX07AE89G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX11AF17G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AC98G