Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory

Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.Comment: ADT 201

Situation of HIV infections and STIs in the United Kingdom in 2007.

In the United Kingdom (UK) in 2007, an estimated 77,400 persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of whom 28% are unaware of their infection. A total of 7,734 persons were newly diagnosed with HIV infection in 2007, of which 31% were diagnosed late. This highlights the need for wider HIV testing, especially in those areas with a high diagnosed prevalence, as recommended in recent national guidelines. Among newly diagnosed cases of HIV in 2007, 41% acquired their infection through sex between men (four in five of whom acquired their infection in the UK) and 55% through heterosexual contact (four in five of whom acquired their infection abroad, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa). Young persons aged 16 to 24 years are disproportionally affected by sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) accounting for 65% of genital chlamydia infections, 50% of cases of genital warts and 50% of cases of gonorrhoea that were diagnosed in 2007

Neuroscience in gambling policy and treatment: an interdisciplinary perspective

Neuroscientific explanations of gambling disorder can help people make sense of their experiences and guide the development of psychosocial interventions. However, the societal perceptions and implications of these explanations are not always clear or helpful. Two workshops in 2013 and 2014 brought together multidisciplinary researchers aiming to improve the clinical and policy-related effects of neuroscience research on gambling. The workshops revealed that neuroscience can be used to improve identification of the dangers of products used in gambling. Additionally, there was optimism associated with the diagnostic and prognostic uses of neuroscience in problem gambling and the provision of novel tools (eg, virtual reality) to assess the effectiveness of new policy interventions before their implementation. Other messages from these workshops were that neuroscientific models of decision making could provide a strong rationale for precommitment strategies and that interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to reduce the harms of gambling

How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting

BubbleRank: Safe Online Learning to Re-Rank via Implicit Click Feedback

In this paper, we study the problem of safe online learning to re-rank, where user feedback is used to improve the quality of displayed lists. Learning to rank has traditionally been studied in two settings. In the offline setting, rankers are typically learned from relevance labels created by judges. This approach has generally become standard in industrial applications of ranking, such as search. However, this approach lacks exploration and thus is limited by the information content of the offline training data. In the online setting, an algorithm can experiment with lists and learn from feedback on them in a sequential fashion. Bandit algorithms are well-suited for this setting but they tend to learn user preferences from scratch, which results in a high initial cost of exploration. This poses an additional challenge of safe exploration in ranked lists. We propose BubbleRank, a bandit algorithm for safe re-ranking that combines the strengths of both the offline and online settings. The algorithm starts with an initial base list and improves it online by gradually exchanging higher-ranked less attractive items for lower-ranked more attractive items. We prove an upper bound on the n-step regret of BubbleRank that degrades gracefully with the quality of the initial base list. Our theoretical findings are supported by extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world click dataset

Women After War: Weaving Nostos in Homeric Epic and in the Twenty-First Century

While women play a circumscribed role in ancient epic, Homer\u27s Odyssey depicts both Helen and Penelope as undergoing their own forms of homecoming, or nostos, after the Trojan War: Helen returns to her husband Menelaus after experiencing the war firsthand at Troy and a ten-year separation; Penelope stays home, but Odysseus\u27 return is in many ways as much a challenge for her as it is for him and the Odyssey portrays her domestic ordeal as a form of heroic nostos. In this essay, I explore female ways of homecoming in the Odyssey and draw connections between Homeric heroines and members of Team Lioness returning home from Afghanistan and Iraq in the twenty-first century. The 2008 documentary Lioness gives voice to some of these women, the country\u27s first generation of female combat veterans, as they struggle to reconcile their experience of war in Iraq with their lives at home. While the ancient Greeks could not have conceived of women experiencing battle in the way the members of Team Lioness did, Helen\u27s and Penelope\u27s marginalized roles in the Odyssey open a window into the contemporary experience of women soldiers and veterans and provide ways of understanding the challenges of the trauma of war and female homecoming in the twenty-first century

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Antidepressants in Pregnancy and Congenital Anomalies: Analysis of Linked Databases in Wales, Norway and Funen, Denmark

Background: Hypothesised associations between in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and congenital anomalies, particularly congenital heart defects (CHD), remain controversial. We investigated the putative teratogenicity of SSRI prescription in the 91 days either side of first day of last menstrual period (LMP). Methods and Findings: Three population-based EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries- Norway (2004–2010), Wales (2000–2010) and Funen, Denmark (2000–2010)—were linked to the electronic healthcare databases holding prospectively collected prescription information for all pregnancies in the timeframes available. We included 519,117 deliveries, including foetuses terminated for congenital anomalies, with data covering pregnancy and the preceding quarter, including 462,641 with data covering pregnancy and one year either side. For SSRI exposures 91 days either side of LMP, separately and together, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95%CI) for all major anomalies were estimated. We also explored: pausing or discontinuing SSRIs preconception, confounding, high dose regimens, and, in Wales, diagnosis of depression. Results were combined in meta-analyses. SSRI prescription 91 days either side of LMP was associated with increased prevalence of severe congenital heart defects (CHD) (as defined by EUROCAT guide 1.3, 2005) (34/12,962 [0.26%] vs. 865/506,155 [0.17%] OR 1.50, 1.06–2.11), and the composite adverse outcome of 'anomaly or stillbirth' (473/12962, 3.65% vs. 15829/506,155, 3.13%, OR 1.13, 1.03–1.24). The increased prevalence of all major anomalies combined did not reach statistical significance (3.09% [400/12,962] vs. 2.67% [13,536/506,155] OR 1.09, 0.99–1.21). Adjusting for socio-economic status left ORs largely unchanged. The prevalence of anomalies and severe CHD was reduced when SSRI prescriptions were stopped or paused preconception, and increased when >1 prescription was recorded, but differences were not statistically significant. The dose-response relationship between severe CHD and SSRI dose (meta-regression OR 1.49, 1.12–1.97) was consistent with SSRI-exposure related risk. Analyses in Wales suggested no associations between anomalies and diagnosed depression. Conclusion: The additional absolute risk of teratogenesis associated with SSRIs, if causal, is small. However, the high prevalence of SSRI use augments its public health importance, justifying modifications to preconception care

Prospectus, March 22, 1984

BARKSTALL TALKS ABOUT DISCRIMINATION; News Digest; This is Karyn\u27s chance: and nothing will stop her!!; Scream and run--best self defense; PC Happenings: Workshop for radiologic technologists, SIU counselor at Parkland, Parkland play to open; Fear, anger, guilt and confusion: Common feelings after rape; StuGo conducting survey; 1984 motorcycle courses; Fall Registration; Did You Know...; The changing face of Women\u27s Lib: Working with and through the system; \u27Harry and Son\u27 warm and touching......; Run--\u27Just for the health of it\u27; Parkland student helps disaster effort; School prayer debate continues; \u27Yes\u27 appears at Assembly Hall; Creative Corner...Especially for you!!: Rain, Window Watching, We begin our lives as tiny..., The sun\u27s golden rays..., Climbing the Mountain, We are alone in this world..., He was only joking..., Used Too, You can\u27t stop rock-\u27n-roll..., The prison of my mind..., I am too younf to feel so worn and tired..., Living hard and fast..., Don\u27t get me wrong..., I can never forget...; Champaign County in the middle of a tornado belt; Tornado prevention; Classifieds; YES concert proves to be big disappointment; Skating projects emotion; \u27Splash\u27 wildly funny entertainment; WILL hosts telecourse; Orioles to repeat; Class A results; Lady Cobras finish third; Cobras eliminated; 1984 Parkland College Baseball Roster; Wet grounds hamper softball; Chargers ready for the Hall; I.M. Newshttps://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1984/1028/thumbnail.jp

The Self-Determined Career Development Model: A Pilot Study

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of a model to enable Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) counselors and others to support VR consumers to self-regulate problem solving to enable them to set career and job goals, and design, implement and evaluate progress toward their goal(s). Study design: The study occurred in the context of a local VR office with five consumers with disabilities who were receiving VR services. The study utilized a multiple-baseline across subjects design. Participants worked through the support model to set a job or career goal and to design an action plan to reach that goal. Once baseline data were collected, all participants implemented their action plan and data were collected to determine progress toward that goal. Results: All participants, except one, made progress toward his or her goal and indicated satisfaction with the process. Conclusions: Findings support the potential of this model to increase VR consumers' capacity to self-direct problem solving and goal setting activities related to getting a job