Flood trends along the Rhine: the role of river training

Several previous studies have detected positive trends in flood flows in German rivers, among others, at Rhine gauges over the past six decades. The presence and detectability of the climate change signal in flood records has been controversially discussed, particularly against the background of massive river training measures in the Rhine. In the past the Rhine catchment has been heavily trained, including the construction of the Rhine weir cascade, flood protection dikes and detention basins. The present study investigates the role of river training on changes in annual maximum daily flows at Rhine gauges starting from Maxau down to Lobith. In particular, the effect of the Rhine weir cascade and of a series of detention basins was investigated. By homogenising the original flood flow records in the period from 1952 till 2009, the annual maximum series were computed that would have been recorded had river training measures not been in place. Using multiple trend analysis, relative changes in the homogenised time series were found to be from a few percentage points to more than 10 percentage points smaller compared to the original records. This effect is attributable to the river training measures, and primarily to the construction of the Rhine weir cascade. The increase in Rhine flood discharges during this period was partly caused by an unfavourable superposition of the Rhine and Neckar flood waves. This superposition resulted from an acceleration of the Rhine waves due to the construction of the weir cascade and associated channelisation and dike heightening. However, at the same time, tributary flows across the entire Upper and Lower Rhine, which enhance annual maximum Rhine peaks, showed strong positive trends. This suggests the dominance of another driver or drivers which acted alongside river training

Combinatorial Optimization by Iterative Partial Transcription

A procedure is presented which considerably improves the performance of local search based heuristic algorithms for combinatorial optimization problems. It increases the average `gain' of the individual local searches by merging pairs of solutions: certain parts of either solution are transcribed by the related parts of the respective other solution, corresponding to flipping clusters of a spin glass. This iterative partial transcription acts as a local search in the subspace spanned by the differing components of both solutions. Embedding it in the simple multi-start-local-search algorithm and in the thermal-cycling method, we demonstrate its effectiveness for several instances of the traveling salesman problem. The obtained results indicate that, for this task, such approaches are far superior to simulated annealing.Comment: RevTex-file: 18 pages, 3 Postscript figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

ENSO impact on simulated South American hydro-climatology

The variability of the simulated hydro-climatology of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) is analysed. Main object of this study is the ENSO-driven variability of the water storage of South America. The horizontal model resolution amounts to 0.5 degree and it is forced with monthly climate variables for 1961-1995 of the Tyndall Centre Climate Research Unit dataset (CRU TS 2.0) as a representation of the observed climate state. Secondly, the model is also forced by the model output of a global circulation model, the ECHAM4-T42 GCM. This model itself is driven by observed monthly means of the global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and the sea ice coverage for the period of 1903 to 1994 (GISST). Thus, the climate model and the hydrological model represent a realistic simulated realisation of the hydro-climatologic state of the last century. Since four simulations of the ECHAM4 model with the same forcing, but with different initial conditions are carried out, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) gives an impression of the impact of the varying SST on the hydro-climatology, because the variance can be separated into a SST-explained and a model internal variability (noise). Also regional multivariate analyses, like Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) provide information of the complex time-space variability. In particular the Amazon region and the South of Brazil are significantly influenced by the ENSO-variability, but also the Pacific coastal areas of Ecuador and Peru are affected. Additionally, different ENSO-indices, based on SST anomalies (e.g. NINO3.4, NINO1+2), and its influence on the South American hydro-climatology are analysed. Especially, the Pacific coast regions of Ecuador, Peru and Chile show a very different behaviour dependant on those indices

Modelling the runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Germany)

International audienceThe paper presents two different levels of regionalization used to represent the spatial distribution of landscape parameters for the hydrological modelling of the Mulde. The aim of this investigation was to find out how the discretisation level affects quality of modelling with the hydrological modelling system J2000. Furthermore we improved our understanding of the applicability and reliability of the distributed model J2000 on the macro-scale. Spatial information was aggregated in two different discretisation levels: subbasins (SB) and hydrological response polygons (HRP). A J2000 simulation was carried out for both discretisation levels based on a 1 year calibration and a 3 year validation period. Simulations performed well for both levels of spatial discretisation. The results seemed to be better in the more complex discretisation approach, where the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher. We can conclude that our first results show more accurate simulations produced by the HRP discretisation approach, the visual inspection shows a better application of the SB approach to the reproduction of the base flow

Descriptive epidemiology of limb reduction deformities in Hawaii, 1986-2000.

The relationship between limb reduction deformities and clinical and demographic factors in Hawaii during 1986-2000 were examined using population-based birth defects program data. The limb defect rate was highest with maternal age less than 20 years, and the defect was more common among males. Among racial/ethnic groups, Pacific Islanders and Filipinos had higher rates than whites and Far East Asians

Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

International audienceFlood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the "German Research Network of Natural Disasters" (DFNK) the working group "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability) and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system). The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results obtained with aleatory uncertainty alone. The model was applied to reaches of the river Rhine downstream of Cologne

Analysis of the runoff response of an Alpine catchment at different scales

International audienceTo understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km2), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km2), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km2). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas

Analysis of the runoff response of an alpine catchment at different scales

International audienceTo understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km²), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km²), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km²). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas