Inherent bounds on forecast accuracy due to observation uncertainty caused by temporal sampling

© Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS).Author Affiliations: MARION P. MITTERMAIER (Numerical Modelling, Weather Science, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom). DAVID B. STEPHENSON (Exeter Climate Systems, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom)Synoptic observations are often treated as error-free representations of the true state of the real world. For example, when observations are used to verify numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, forecast-observation differences (the total error) are often entirely attributed to forecast inaccuracy. Such simplification is no longer justifiable for short-lead forecasts made with increasingly accurate higher-resolution models. For example, at least 25% of t + 6 h individual Met Office site-specific (postprocessed) temperature forecasts now typically have total errors of less than 0.2 K, which are comparable to typical instrument measurement errors of around 0.1 K. In addition to instrument errors, uncertainty is introduced by measurements not being taken concurrently with the forecasts. For example, synoptic temperature observations in the United Kingdom are typically taken 10 min before the hour, whereas forecasts are generally extracted as instantaneous values on the hour. This study develops a simple yet robust statistical modeling procedure for assessing how serially correlated subhourly variations limit the forecast accuracy that can be achieved. The methodology is demonstrated by application to synoptic temperature observations sampled every minute at several locations around the United Kingdom. Results show that subhourly variations lead to sizeable forecast errors of 0.16-0.44 K for observations taken 10 min before the forecast issue time. The magnitude of this error depends on spatial location and the annual cycle, with the greater errors occurring in the warmer seasons and at inland sites. This important source of uncertainty consists of a bias due to the diurnal cycle, plus irreducible uncertainty due to unpredictable subhourly variations that fundamentally limit forecast accuracy.NCAR-DT

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Scaling-violation phenomena and fractality in the human posture control systems

By analyzing the movements of quiet standing persons by means of wavelet statistics, we observe multiple scaling regions in the underlying body dynamics. The use of the wavelet-variance function opens the possibility to relate scaling violations to different modes of posture control. We show that scaling behavior becomes close to perfect, when correctional movements are dominated by the vestibular system.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Anthropogenic heat flux: advisable spatial resolutions when input data are scarce

Anthropogenic heat flux (QF) may be significant in cities, especially under low solar irradiance and at night. It is of interest to many practitioners including meteorologists, city planners and climatologists. QF estimates at fine temporal and spatial resolution can be derived from models that use varying amounts of empirical data. This study compares simple and detailed models in a European megacity (London) at 500 m spatial resolution. The simple model (LQF) uses spatially resolved population data and national energy statistics. The detailed model (GQF) additionally uses local energy, road network and workday population data. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias are used to rate the skill with which the simple model reproduces the spatial patterns and magnitudes of QF, and its sub-components, from the detailed model. LQF skill was consistently good across 90% of the city, away from the centre and major roads. The remaining 10% contained elevated emissions and B hot spots ^ representing 30 – 40% of the total city-wide energy. This structure was lost because it requires workday population, spatially resolved building energy consumption and/or road network data. Daily total building and traffic energy consumption estimates from national data were within ± 40% of local values. Progressively coarser spatial resolutions to 5 km improved skill for total Q F , but important features (hot spots, transport network) were lost at all resolutions when residential population controlled spatial variations. The results demonstrate that simple QF models should be applied with conservative spatial resolution in cities that, like London, exhibit time-varying energy use patterns

Longitudinal exchange: an alternative strategy towards quantification of dynamics parameters in ZZ exchange spectroscopy

Longitudinal exchange experiments facilitate the quantification of the rates of interconversion between the exchanging species, along with their longitudinal relaxation rates, by analyzing the time-dependence of direct correlation and exchange cross peaks. Here we present a simple and robust alternative to this strategy, which is based on the combination of two complementary experiments, one with and one without resolving exchange cross peaks. We show that by combining the two data sets systematic errors that are caused by differential line-broadening of the exchanging species are avoided and reliable quantification of kinetic and relaxation parameters in the presence of additional conformational exchange on the ms–μs time scale is possible. The strategy is applied to a bistable DNA oligomer that displays different line-broadening in the two exchanging species

Anthropology in conversation with an Islamic tradition : Emmanuel Levinas and the practice of critique

Funded by the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland This research was funded by the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland. I would like to thank Arnar Arnason, Alison Brown, Tim Ingold, Jo Vergunst, and the anonymous JRAI readers for their critical feedback, which greatly improved the quality and coherence of this article.Peer reviewedPostprin

Accessing ns–μs side chain dynamics in ubiquitin with methyl RDCs

This study presents the first application of the model-free analysis (MFA) (Meiler in J Am Chem Soc 123:6098–6107, 2001; Lakomek in J Biomol NMR 34:101–115, 2006) to methyl group RDCs measured in 13 different alignment media in order to describe their supra-τc dynamics in ubiquitin. Our results indicate that methyl groups vary from rigid to very mobile with good correlation to residue type, distance to backbone and solvent exposure, and that considerable additional dynamics are effective at rates slower than the correlation time τc. In fact, the average amplitude of motion expressed in terms of order parameters S2 associated with the supra-τc window brings evidence to the existence of fluctuations contributing as much additional mobility as those already present in the faster ps-ns time scale measured from relaxation data. Comparison to previous results on ubiquitin demonstrates that the RDC-derived order parameters are dominated both by rotameric interconversions and faster libration-type motions around equilibrium positions. They match best with those derived from a combined J-coupling and residual dipolar coupling approach (Chou in J Am Chem Soc 125:8959–8966, 2003) taking backbone motion into account. In order to appreciate the dynamic scale of side chains over the entire protein, the methyl group order parameters are compared to existing dynamic ensembles of ubiquitin. Of those recently published, the broadest one, namely the EROS ensemble (Lange in Science 320:1471–1475, 2008), fits the collection of methyl group order parameters presented here best. Last, we used the MFA-derived averaged spherical harmonics to perform highly-parameterized rotameric searches of the side chains conformation and find expanded rotamer distributions with excellent fit to our data. These rotamer distributions suggest the presence of concerted motions along the side chains

Determination of Conformational Equilibria in Proteins Using Residual Dipolar Couplings

In order to carry out their functions, proteins often undergo significant conformational fluctuations that enable them to interact with their partners. The accurate characterization of these motions is key in order to understand the mechanisms by which macromolecular recognition events take place. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy offers a variety of powerful methods to achieve this result. We discuss a method of using residual dipolar couplings as replica-averaged restraints in molecular dynamics simulations to determine large amplitude motions of proteins, including those involved in the conformational equilibria that are established through interconversions between different states. By applying this method to ribonuclease A, we show that it enables one to characterize the ample fluctuations in interdomain orientations expected to play an important functional role