Global stroke statistics

Background Up to date data on incidence, mortality, and case-fatality for stroke are important for setting the agenda for prevention and healthcare. Aims and/or hypothesis We aim to update the most current incidence and mortality data on stroke available by country, and to expand the scope to case-fatality and explore how registry data might be complementary. Methods Data were compiled using two approaches: (1) an updated literature review building from our previous review and (2) direct acquisition and analysis of stroke events in the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for each country providing these data. To assess new and/or updated data on incidence, we searched multiple databases to identify new original papers and review articles that met ideal criteria for stroke incidence studies and were published between 15 May 2013 and 31 May 2016. For data on case-fatality, we searched between 1980 and 31 May 2016. We further screened reference lists and citation history of papers to identify other studies not obtained from these sources. Mortality codes for ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 were extracted. Using population denominators provided for each country, we calculated both the crude mortality from stroke and mortality adjusted to the WHO world population. We used only the most recent year reported to the WHO for which both population and mortality data were available. Results Fifty-one countries had data on stroke incidence, some with data over many time periods, and some with data in more than one region. Since our last review, there were new incidence studies from 12 countries, with four meeting pre-determined quality criteria. In these four studies, the incidence of stroke, adjusted to the WHO World standard population, ranged from 76 per 100,000 population per year in Australia (2009–10) up to 119 per 100,000 population per year in New Zealand (2011–12), with the latter being in those aged at least 15 years. Only in Martinique (2011–12) was the incidence of stroke greater in women than men. In countries either lacking or with old data on stroke incidence, eight had national clinical registries of hospital based data. Of the 128 countries reporting mortality data to the WHO, crude mortality was greatest in Kazhakstan (in 2003), Bulgaria, and Greece. Crude mortality and crude incidence of stroke were both positively correlated with the proportion of the population aged ? 65 years, but not with time. Data on case-fatality were available in 42 studies in 22 countries, with large variations between regions. Conclusions In this updated review, we describe the current data on stroke incidence, case-fatality and mortality in different countries, and highlight the growing trend for national clinical registries to provide estimates in lieu of community-based incidence studies

Meta-analysis in more than 17,900 cases of ischemic stroke reveals a novel association at 12q24.12

Results: In an overall analysis of 17,970 cases of ischemic stroke and 70,764 controls, we identified a novel association on chromosome 12q24 (rs10744777, odds ratio [OR] 1.10 [1.07-1.13], p 5 7.12 3 10-11) with ischemic stroke. The association was with all ischemic stroke rather than an individual stroke subtype, with similar effect sizes seen in different stroke subtypes. There was no association with intracerebral hemorrhage (OR 1.03 [0.90-1.17], p 5 0.695).Conclusion: Our results show, for the first time, a genetic risk locus associated with ischemic stroke as a whole, rather than in a subtype-specific manner. This finding was not associated with intracerebral hemorrhage.Methods: Using the Immunochip, we genotyped 3,420 ischemic stroke cases and 6,821 controls. After imputation we meta-analyzed the results with imputed GWAS data from 3,548 case

Usability and feasibility of PreventS-MD webapp for stroke prevention.

BACKGROUND: Most strokes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are potentially preventable if their risk factors are identified and well controlled. Digital platforms, such as the PreventS-MD webapp (PreventS-MD) may aid health care professionals (HCPs) in assessing and managing risk factors and promoting lifestyle changes for their patients. METHODS: This is a mixed methods cross-sectional 2-phase survey using a largely positivist (quantitative and qualitative) framework. During phase 1, a prototype of PreventS-MD was tested internationally by 59 of 69 consenting HCPs of different backgrounds, age, sex, working experience and specialities using hypothetical data. Collected comments/suggestions from the study HCPs in phase 1 were reviewed and implemented. In phase 2, a near-final version of PreventS-MD was developed and tested by 58 of 72 consenting HCPs using both hypothetical and real patient (n=10) data. Qualitative semi-structured interviews with real patients (n=10) were conducted, and 1-month adherence to the preventative recommendations was assessed by self-reporting. The four System Usability Scale (SUS) groups of scores (0-50 unacceptable; 51-68 poor, 68-80.3 good; >80.3 excellent) were used to determine usability of PreventS-MD. FINDINGS: 99 HCPs from 27 countries (45% from low- to middle-income countries) participated in the study, out of whom 10 HCPs were involved in the development of PreventS before the study, and therefore were not involved in the survey. Of the remaining 89 HCPs 69 consented to the first phase of the survey, out of whom 59 completed the first phase of the survey (response rate 86%) and 58 HCPs completed the second phase of the survey (response rate 84%). The SUS scores supported good usability of the prototype (mean score=80.2; 95% CI [77.0-84.0]) and excellent usability of the final version of PreventS-MD (mean score=81.7; 95%CI [79.1-84.3]) in the field. Scores were not affected by the age, sex, working experience or speciality of the HCPs. One month follow-up of the patients confirmed the high level of satisfaction/acceptability of PreventS-MD and (100%) adherence to the recommendations. INTERPRETATION: The PreventS-MD webapp has a high level of usability, feasibility and satisfaction by HCPs and individuals at risk of stroke/CVD. Individuals at risk of stroke/CVD demonstrated a high level of confidence and motivation in following and adhering to preventative recommendations generated by PreventS-MD

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services

Efficiency of two-phase methods with focus on a planned population-based case-control study on air pollution and stroke

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We plan to conduct a case-control study to investigate whether exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) increases the risk of stroke. In case-control studies, selective participation can lead to bias and loss of efficiency. A two-phase design can reduce bias and improve efficiency by combining information on the non-participating subjects with information from the participating subjects. In our planned study, we will have access to individual disease status and data on NO₂exposure on group (area) level for a large population sample of Scania, southern Sweden. A smaller sub-sample will be selected to the second phase for individual-level assessment on exposure and covariables. In this paper, we simulate a case-control study based on our planned study. We develop a two-phase method for this study and compare the performance of our method with the performance of other two-phase methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A two-phase case-control study was simulated with a varying number of first- and second-phase subjects. Estimation methods: <it>Method 1</it>: Effect estimation with second-phase data only. <it>Method 2</it>: Effect estimation by adjusting the first-phase estimate with the difference between the adjusted and unadjusted second-phase estimate. The first-phase estimate is based on individual disease status and residential address for all study subjects that are linked to register data on NO₂-exposure for each geographical area. <it>Method 3</it>: Effect estimation by using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm without taking area-level register data on exposure into account. <it>Method 4</it>: Effect estimation by using the EM algorithm and incorporating group-level register data on NO₂-exposure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The simulated scenarios were such that, unbiased or marginally biased (< 7%) odds ratio (OR) estimates were obtained with all methods. The efficiencies of method 4, are generally higher than those of methods 1 and 2. The standard errors in method 4 decreased further when the case/control ratio is above one in the second phase. For all methods, the standard errors do not become substantially reduced when the number of first-phase controls is increased.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the setting described here, method 4 had the best performance in order to improve efficiency, while adjusting for varying participation rates across areas.</p

Genome-wide association study of cerebral small vessel disease reveals established and novel loci

Intracerebral haemorrhage and small vessel ischaemic stroke (SVS) are the most acute manifestations of cerebral small vessel disease, with no established preventive approaches beyond hypertension management. Combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of these two correlated diseases may improve statistical power to detect novel genetic factors for cerebral small vessel disease, elucidating underlying disease mechanisms that may form the basis for future treatments. Because intracerebral haemorrhage location is an adequate surrogate for distinct histopathological variants of cerebral small vessel disease (lobar for cerebral amyloid angiopathy and non-lobar for arteriolosclerosis), we performed GWAS of intracerebral haemorrhage by location in 1813 subjects (755 lobar and 1005 non-lobar) and 1711 stroke-free control subjects. Intracerebral haemorrhage GWAS results by location were meta-analysed with GWAS results for SVS from MEGASTROKE, using 'Multi-Trait Analysis of GWAS' (MTAG) to integrate summary data across traits and generate combined effect estimates. After combining intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS datasets, our sample size included 241 024 participants (6255 intracerebral haemorrhage or SVS cases and 233 058 control subjects). Genome-wide significant associations were observed for non-lobar intracerebral haemorrhage enhanced by SVS with rs2758605 [MTAG P-value (P) = 2.6 x 10(-8)] at 1q22;rs72932727 (P = 1.7 x 10(-8)) at 2q33;and rs9515201 (P = 5.3 x 10(-10)) at 13q34. In the GTEx gene expression library, rs2758605 (1q22), rs72932727 (2q33) and rs9515201 (13q34) are significant cis-eQTLs for PMF1 (P = 1 x 10(-4) in tibial nerve), NBEAL1, FAM117B and CARF (P<2.1 x 10(-7) in arteries) and COL4A2 and COL4A1 (P<0.01 in brain putamen), respectively. Leveraging S-PrediXcan for gene-based association testing with the predicted expression models in tissues related with nerve, artery, and non-lobar brain, we found that experiment-wide significant (P<8.5 x 10(-7)) associations at three genes at 2q33 including NBEAL1, FAM117B and WDR12 and genome-wide significant associations at two genes including ICA1L at 2q33 and ZCCHC14 at 16q24. Brain cell-type specific expression profiling libraries reveal that SEMA4A, SLC25A44 and PMF1 at 1q22 and COL4A1 and COL4A2 at 13q34 were mainly expressed in endothelial cells, while the genes at 2q33 (FAM117B, CARF and NBEAL1) were expressed in various cell types including astrocytes, oligodendrocytes and neurons. Our cross-phenotype genetic study of intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS demonstrates novel genome-wide associations for non-lobar intracerebral haemorrhage at 2q33 and 13q34. Our replication of the 1q22 locus previous seen in traditional GWAS of intracerebral haemorrhage, as well as the rediscovery of 13q34, which had previously been reported in candidate gene studies with other cerebral small vessel disease-related traits strengthens the credibility of applying this novel genome-wide approach across intracerebral haemorrhage and SVS