Calibration and Validation of A Shared space Model: A Case Study

Shared space is an innovative streetscape design that seeks minimum separation between vehicle traffic and pedestrians. Urban design is moving toward space sharing as a means of increasing the community texture of street surroundings. Its unique features aim to balance priorities and allow cars and pedestrians to coexist harmoniously without the need to dictate behavior. There is, however, a need for a simulation tool to model future shared space schemes and to help judge whether they might represent suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. This paper builds on the authors’ previously published work in which a shared space microscopic mixed traffic model based on the social force model (SFM) was presented, calibrated, and evaluated with data from the shared space link typology of New Road in Brighton, United Kingdom. Here, the goal is to explore the transferability of the authors’ model to a similar shared space typology and investigate the effect of flow and ratio of traffic modes. Data recorded from the shared space scheme of Exhibition Road, London, were collected and analyzed. The flow and speed of cars and segregation between pedestrians and cars are greater on Exhibition Road than on New Road. The rule-based SFM for shared space modeling is calibrated and validated with the real data. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that shared space schemes are context dependent and that factors such as the infrastructural design of the environment and the flow and speed of pedestrians and vehicles affect the willingness to share space

An Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Factors Affecting Aircraft Conflicts Based on Simulation Modelling

The demand for air travel worldwide continues to grow at a rapid rate, especially in Europe and the United States. In Europe, the demand exceeded predictions with a real annual growth of 7.1% in the period 1985-1990, against a prediction of 2.4%. By the year 2010, the demand is expected to double from the 1990 level. Within the UK international scheduled passenger traffic is predicted to increase, on average, by 5.8 per cent per year between 1999 and 2003. The demand has not been matched by availability of capacity. In Western Europe many of the largest airports suffer from runway capacity constraints. Europe also suffers from an en-route airspace capacity constraint, which is determined by the workload of the air traffic controllers, i.e. the physical and mental work that controllers must undertake to safely conduct air traffic under their jurisdiction through en-route airspace. The annual cost to Europe due to air traffic inefficiency and congestion in en-route airspace is estimated to be 5 billion US Dollars, primarily due to delays caused by non-optimal route structures and reduced productivity of controllers due to equipment inefficiencies. Therefore, to in order to decrease the total delay, an increase in en-route capacity is of paramount importance. At a global scale and in the early 1980s, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) recognised that the traditional air traffic control (ATC) systems would not cope with the growth in demand for capacity. Consequently new technologies and procedures have been proposed to enable ATC to cope with this demand, e.g. satellite-based system concept to meet the future civil aviation requirements for communication, navigation and surveillance/ air traffic management (CNS/ATM). In Europe, the organisation EUROCONTROL (established in 1960 to co-ordinate European ATM) proposed a variety of measures to increase the capacity of en-route airspace. A key change envisaged is the increasing delegation of responsibilities for control to flight crew, by the use of airborne separation assurance between aircraft, leading eventually to ?free flight? airspace. However, there are major concerns regarding the safety of operations in ?free flight? airspace. The safety of such airspace can be investigated by analysing the factors that affect conflict occurrence, i.e. a loss of the prescribed separation between two aircraft in airspace. This paper analyses the factors affecting conflict occurrence in current airspace and future free flight airspace by using a simulation model of air traffic controller workload, the RAMS model. The paper begins with a literature review of the factors that affect conflict occurrence. This is followed by a description of the RAMS model and of its use in this analysis. The airspace simulated is the Mediterranean Free Flight region, and the major attributes of this region and of the traffic demand patterns are outlined next. In particular a day?s air traffic is simulated in the two airspace scenarios, and rules for conflict detection and resolution are carefully defined. The following section outlines the framework for analysing the output from the simulations, using negative binomial (NB) and generalised negative binomial (GNB) regression, and discusses the estimation methods required. The next section presents the results of the regression analysis, taking into account the spatio-temporal nature of the data. The following section presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal pattern of conflicts in the two airspace scenarios across a day, highlighting possible metrics to indicate this. The paper concludes with future research directions based upon this analysis.

An Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Factors Affecting Aircraft Conflicts Based on Simulation Modelling

The demand for air travel worldwide continues to grow at a rapid rate, especially in Europe and the United States. In Europe, the demand exceeded predictions with a real annual growth of 7.1% in the period 1985-1990, against a prediction of 2.4%. By the year 2010, the demand is expected to double from the 1990 level. Within the UK international scheduled passenger traffic is predicted to increase, on average, by 5.8 per cent per year between 1999 and 2003. The demand has not been matched by availability of capacity. In Western Europe many of the largest airports suffer from runway capacity constraints. Europe also suffers from an en-route airspace capacity constraint, which is determined by the workload of the air traffic controllers, i.e. the physical and mental work that controllers must undertake to safely conduct air traffic under their jurisdiction through en-route airspace. The annual cost to Europe due to air traffic inefficiency and congestion in en-route airspace is estimated to be 5 billion US Dollars, primarily due to delays caused by non-optimal route structures and reduced productivity of controllers due to equipment inefficiencies. Therefore, to in order to decrease the total delay, an increase in en-route capacity is of paramount importance. At a global scale and in the early 1980s, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) recognised that the traditional air traffic control (ATC) systems would not cope with the growth in demand for capacity. Consequently new technologies and procedures have been proposed to enable ATC to cope with this demand, e.g. satellite-based system concept to meet the future civil aviation requirements for communication, navigation and surveillance/ air traffic management (CNS/ATM). In Europe, the organisation EUROCONTROL (established in 1960 to co-ordinate European ATM) proposed a variety of measures to increase the capacity of en-route airspace. A key change envisaged is the increasing delegation of responsibilities for control to flight crew, by the use of airborne separation assurance between aircraft, leading eventually to ?free flight? airspace. However, there are major concerns regarding the safety of operations in ?free flight? airspace. The safety of such airspace can be investigated by analysing the factors that affect conflict occurrence, i.e. a loss of the prescribed separation between two aircraft in airspace. This paper analyses the factors affecting conflict occurrence in current airspace and future free flight airspace by using a simulation model of air traffic controller workload, the RAMS model. The paper begins with a literature review of the factors that affect conflict occurrence. This is followed by a description of the RAMS model and of its use in this analysis. The airspace simulated is the Mediterranean Free Flight region, and the major attributes of this region and of the traffic demand patterns are outlined next. In particular a day's air traffic is simulated in the two airspace scenarios, and rules for conflict detection and resolution are carefully defined. The following section outlines the framework for analysing the output from the simulations, using negative binomial (NB) and generalised negative binomial (GNB) regression, and discusses the estimation methods required. The next section presents the results of the regression analysis, taking into account the spatio-temporal nature of the data. The following section presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal pattern of conflicts in the two airspace scenarios across a day, highlighting possible metrics to indicate this. The paper concludes with future research directions based upon this analysis

Factors influencing performance of seedplot technique in seed potato quality improvement among small scale farmers.

Potato seedborne diseases majorly causes continuous low yields in potato production in East and Central Africa. A small seedplot technology (SSPT) has been developed as a step towards effective management of the seedborne diseases. This was successfully promoted and adapted to varying farming conditions, as a self-sustaining technology for on-farm seed potato production, where disease-free seed is planted at high-density in plots that are apparently free from bacterial wilt. The objectives of the study were to establish the influence of spacing and fertiliser nutrient composition on the performance of small seedplot, and to determine the influence of fertilizer levels on the performance of small seedplot. Trials with 5 potato varieties were conducted in seven locations for three seasons. Different fertiliser types (DAP and NPK) and rates (0, 45, 90 kgNha−1) were used at a spacing of 20×20 cm and 30×30 cm, to optimise management for SSPT. In most locations, tuber numbers were higher with NPK application compared with DAP. When planting in common spacing of 75×30 cm the varieties used in the trials produce about 25 tubers m−1, whereas the SSPT spacings of 20×20 cm and 30×30 cm produced 67 and 54 tubersm−2, respectively. Data was collected on tuber number, size and weight. The results indicated that the spacing of 20×20 cm produced higher tuber number per m2 (51, 71 and 80 at 0, 45 and 90 kgNha−1, respectively) than with a spacing of 30×30 cm (45, 55 and 61 at 0, 45 and 90 kgNha−1, respectively). However, double starter seed is required and handling in planting is more difficult. Moreover, the multiplication rate per tuber was about 20% higher at a spacing of 30×30 cm compared with the spacing of 20×20 cm. Hence, in general if clean land is extremely limited the spacing of 20×20 cm should be chosen to make best use of this part, whereas if clean land is relatively sufficient a spacing of 30×30 cm seems to be more practicable and economically viabl

Modelling shared space users via rule-based social force model

The promotion of space sharing in order to raise the quality of community living and safety of street surroundings is increasingly accepted feature of modern urban design. In this context, the development of a shared space simulation tool is essential in helping determine whether particular shared space schemes are suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. A simulation tool that enables urban designers to visualise pedestrians and cars trajectories, extract flow and density relation in a new shared space design, achieve solutions for optimal design features before implementation, and help getting the design closer to the system optimal. This paper presents a three-layered microscopic mathematical model which is capable of representing the behaviour of pedestrians and vehicles in shared space layouts and it is implemented in a traffic simulation tool. The top layer calculates route maps based on static obstacles in the environment. It plans the shortest path towards agents’ respective destinations by generating one or more intermediate targets. In the second layer, the Social Force Model (SFM) is modified and extended for mixed traffic to produce feasible trajectories. Since car movements are not as flexible as pedestrian movements, velocity angle constraints are included for cars. The conflicts described in the third layer are resolved by rule-based constraints for shared space users. An optimisation algorithm is applied to determine the interaction parameters of the force-based model for shared space users using empirical data. This new three-layer microscopic model can be used to simulate shared space environments and assess, for example, new street designs

Calibration and Validation of a Shared Space Model Case Study

Shared space is an innovative streetscape design that seeks minimum separation between vehicle traffic and pedestrians. Urban design is moving toward space sharing as a means of increasing the community texture of street surroundings. Its unique features aim to balance priorities and allow cars and pedestrians to coexist harmoniously without the need to dictate behavior. There is, however, a need for a simulation tool to model future shared space schemes and to help judge whether they might represent suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. This paper builds on the authors’ previously published work in which a shared space microscopic mixed traffic model based on the social force model (SFM) was presented, calibrated, and evaluated with data from the shared space link typology of New Road in Brighton, United Kingdom. Here, the goal is to explore the transferability of the authors’ model to a similar shared space typology and investigate the effect of flow and ratio of traffic modes. Data recorded from the shared space scheme of Exhibition Road, London, were collected and analyzed. The flow and speed of cars and segregation between pedestrians and cars are greater on Exhibition Road than on New Road. The rule-based SFM for shared space modeling is calibrated and validated with the real data. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that shared space schemes are context dependent and that factors such as the infrastructural design of the environment and the flow and speed of pedestrians and vehicles affect the willingness to share space