Demarcating circulation regimes of synchronously rotating terrestrial planets within the habitable zone

We investigate the atmospheric dynamics of terrestrial planets in synchronous rotation within the habitable zone of low-mass stars using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The surface temperature contrast between day and night hemispheres decreases with an increase in incident stellar flux, which is opposite the trend seen on gas giants. We define three dynamical regimes in terms of the equatorial Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length. The slow rotation regime has a mean zonal circulation that spans from day to night side, with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length exceeding planetary radius, which occurs for planets around stars with effective temperatures of 3300 K to 4500 K (rotation period > 20 days). Rapid rotators have a mean zonal circulation that partially spans a hemisphere and with banded cloud formation beneath the substellar point, with the Rossby deformation radius is less than planetary radius, which occurs for planets orbiting stars with effective temperatures of less than 3000 K (rotation period < 5 days). In between is the Rhines rotation regime, which retains a thermally-direct circulation from day to night side but also features midlatitude turbulence-driven zonal jets. Rhines rotators occur for planets around stars in the range of 3000 K to 3300 K (rotation period ∼ 5 to 20 days), where the Rhines length is greater than planetary radius but the Rossby deformation radius is less than planetary radius. The dynamical state can be observationally inferred from comparing the morphology of the thermal emission phase curves of synchronously rotating planets

Anisotropic turbulence and zonal jets in rotating flows with a β-effect

Numerical studies of small-scale forced, two-dimensional turbulent flows on the surface of a rotating sphere have revealed strong large-scale anisotropization that culminates in the emergence of quasi-steady sets of alternating zonal jets, or zonation. The kinetic energy spectrum of such flows also becomes strongly anisotropic. For the zonal modes, a steep spectral distribution, E(n)=Cz(Ω/R)^2 n^-5, is established, where Cz=0(1) is a non-dimensional coefficient, Ω is the angular velocity, and R is the radius of the sphere, respectively. For other, non-zonal modes, the classical, Kolmogorov-Batchelor-Kraichnan, -5/3 spectral law is preserved. This flow regime, referred to as a zonostrophic regime, appears to have wide applicability to large-scale planetary and terrestrial circulations as long as those are characterized by strong rotation, vertically stable stratification and small Burger numbers. The well-known manifestations of this regimee are the banded disks of the outer planets of our Solar System. Relatively lesss known examples are systems of narrow, subsurface, alternating zonal jets throughout all major oceans discovered in state-of-the-art, eddy-permitting simulations of the general oceanic circulation. Furthermore, laboratory experiments recently conducted using the Coriolis turntable have basically confirmed that the lateral gradient of "planetary vorticity" (emulated via the topographic β-effect) is the primary cause of the zonation and that the latter is entwined with the development of the strongly anisotropic kinetic energy spectrum that tends to attain the same zonal and non-zonal distributions, -5 and -5/3, respectively, in both the slpe and the magnitude, as the corresponding spectra in other environmental conditions. The non-dimensional coefficient Cz in the -5 spectral law appears to be invariant, Cz≈0.5, in a variety of simulated and natural flows. This paper provides a brief review of the zonostrophic regime. The review includes the discussion of the physical nature, basic mechanisms, scaling laws and universality of this regime. A parameter range conducive to its establishment is identified, and collation of laboratory and naturally occurring flows is presented through which the zonostrophic regime manifests itself in the real world

Oral abstracts 1: SpondyloarthropathiesO1. Detecting axial spondyloarthritis amongst primary care back pain referrals

Background: Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an early feature of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and its detection offers the prospect of early diagnosis of AS. However, since back pain is very common but only a very small minority of back pain sufferers have ASpA or AS, screening of back pain sufferers for AS is problematic. In early disease radiographs are often normal so that fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for AS is impossible though a diagnosis of axial SpA can be made if MRI evidence of sacroiliitis is present. This pilot study was designed to indicate whether a cost-effective pick up rate for ASpA/early AS could be achieved by identifying adults with IBP stratified on the basis of age. Methods: Patients aged between 18 and 45 years who were referred to a hospital physiotherapy service with back pain of more than 3 months duration were assessed for IBP. All were asked to complete a questionnaire based on the Berlin IBP criteria. Those who fulfilled IBP criteria were also asked to complete a second short questionnaire enquiring about SpA comorbidities, to have a blood test for HLA-B27 and CRP level and to undergo an MRI scan of the sacroiliac joints. This was a limited scan, using STIR, diffusion-weighted, T1 and T2 sequences of the sacroiliac joints to minimize time in the scanner and cost. The study was funded by a research grant from Abbott Laboratories Ltd. Results: 50 sequential patients agreed to participate in the study and completed the IBP questionnaire. Of these 27 (54%) fulfilled criteria for IBP. Of these, 2 patients reported a history of an SpA comorbidity - 1 psoriasis; 1 ulcerative colitis - and 3 reported a family history of an SpA comorbidity - 2 psoriasis; 1 Crohn's disease. 4 were HLA-B27 positive, though results were not available for 7. Two patients had marginally raised CRP levels (6, 10 -NR ≤ 5). 19 agreed to undergo MRI scanning of the sacroiliac joints and lumbar spine; 4 scans were abnormal, showing evidence of bilateral sacroiliitis on STIR sequences. In all cases the changes met ASAS criteria but were limited. Of these 4 patients 3 were HLA-B27 positive but none gave a personal or family history of an SpA-associated comorbidity and all had normal CRP levels. Conclusions: This was a pilot study yielding only limited conclusions. However, it is clear that: Screening of patients referred for physiotherapy for IBP is straightforward, inexpensive and quick. It appears that IBP is more prevalent in young adults than overall population data suggest so that targeting this population may be efficient. IBP questionnaires could be administered routinely during a physiotherapy assessment. HLA-B27 testing in this group of patients with IBP is a suitable screening tool. The sacroiliac joint changes identified were mild and their prognostic significance is not yet clear so that the value of early screening needs further evaluation. Disclosure statement: C.H. received research funding for this study from Abbott. A.K. received research funding for this study, and speaker and consultancy fees, from Abbott. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

The use of discrete choice experiments to inform health workforce policy: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Discrete choice experiments have become a popular study design to study the labour market preferences of health workers. Discrete choice experiments in health, however, have been criticised for lagging behind best practice and there are specific methodological considerations for those focused on job choices. We performed a systematic review of the application of discrete choice experiments to inform health workforce policy. METHODS: We searched for discrete choice experiments that examined the labour market preferences of health workers, including doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, mid-level and community health workers. We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, other databases and grey literature repositories with no limits on date or language and contacted 44 experts. Features of choice task and experimental design, conduct and analysis of included studies were assessed against best practice. An assessment of validity was undertaken for all studies, with a comparison of results from those with low risk of bias and a similar objective and context. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies were included, with over half set in low- and middle-income countries. There were more studies published in the last four years than the previous ten years. Doctors or medical students were the most studied cadre. Studies frequently pooled results from heterogeneous subgroups or extrapolated these results to the general population. Only one third of studies included an opt-out option, despite all health workers having the option to exit the labour market. Just five studies combined results with cost data to assess the cost effectiveness of various policy options. Comparison of results from similar studies broadly showed the importance of bonus payments and postgraduate training opportunities and the unpopularity of time commitments for the uptake of rural posts. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first systematic review of discrete choice experiments in human resources for health. We identified specific issues relating to this application of which practitioners should be aware to ensure robust results. In particular, there is a need for more defined target populations and increased synthesis with cost data. Research on a wider range of health workers and the generalisability of results would be welcome to better inform policy

Oral Abstracts 7: RA ClinicalO37. Long-Term Outcomes of Early RA Patients Initiated with Adalimumab Plus Methotrexate Compared with Methotrexate Alone Following a Targeted Treatment Approach

Background: This analysis assessed, on a group level, whether there is a long-term advantage for early RA patients treated with adalimumab (ADA) + MTX vs those initially treated with placebo (PBO) + MTX who either responded to therapy or added ADA following inadequate response (IR). Methods: OPTIMA was a 78- week, randomized, controlled trial of ADA + MTX vs PBO + MTX in MTX-naïve early (<1 year) RA patients. Therapy was adjusted at week 26: ADA + MTX-responders (R) who achieved DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 at weeks 22 and 26 (Period 1, P1) were re-randomized to withdraw or continue ADA and PBO + MTX-R continued randomized therapy for 52 weeks (P2); IR-patients received open-label (OL) ADA + MTX during P2. This post hoc analysis evaluated the proportion of patients at week 78 with DAS28 (CRP) <3.2, HAQ-DI <0.5, and/or ΔmTSS ≤0.5 by initial treatment. To account for patients who withdrew ADA during P2, an equivalent proportion of R was imputed from ADA + MTX-R patients. Results: At week 26, significantly more patients had low disease activity, normal function, and/or no radiographic progression with ADA + MTX vs PBO + MTX (Table 1). Differences in clinical and functional outcomes disappeared following additional treatment, when PBO + MTX-IR (n = 348/460) switched to OL ADA + MTX. Addition of OL ADA slowed radiographic progression, but more patients who received ADA + MTX from baseline had no radiographic progression at week 78 than patients who received initial PBO + MTX. Conclusions: Early RA patients treated with PBO + MTX achieved comparable long-term clinical and functional outcomes on a group level as those who began ADA + MTX, but only when therapy was optimized by the addition of ADA in PBO + MTX-IR. Still, ADA + MTX therapy conferred a radiographic benefit although the difference did not appear to translate to an additional functional benefit. Disclosures: P.E., AbbVie, Merck, Pfizer, UCB, Roche, BMS—Provided Expert Advice, Undertaken Trials, AbbVie—AbbVie sponsored the study, contributed to its design, and participated in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, and in the writing, reviewing, and approval of the final version. R.F., AbbVie, Pfizer, Merck, Roche, UCB, Celgene, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. S.F., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. A.K., AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Centocor-Janssen, Pfizer, Roche, UCB—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. H.K., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. S.R., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. J.S., AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Centocor-Janssen, GlaxoSmithKline, Lilly, Pfizer (Wyeth), MSD (Schering-Plough), Novo-Nordisk, Roche, Sandoz, UCB—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. R.V., AbbVie, BMS, GlaxoSmithKline, Human Genome Sciences, Merck, Pfizer, Roche, UCB Pharma—Consultation Fees, Research Support. Table 1.Week 78 clinical, functional, and radiographic outcomes in patients who received continued ADA + MTX vs those who continued PBO + MTX or added open-label ADA following an inadequate response ADA + MTX, n/N (%)a PBO + MTX, n/N (%)b Outcome Week 26 Week 52 Week 78 Week 26 Week 52 Week 78 DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 246/466 (53) 304/465 (65) 303/465 (65) 139/460 (30)*** 284/460 (62) 300/460 (65) HAQ-DI <0.5 211/466 (45) 220/466 (47) 224/466 (48) 150/460 (33)*** 203/460 (44) 208/460 (45) ΔmTSS ≤0.5 402/462 (87) 379/445 (86) 382/443 (86) 330/459 (72)*** 318/440 (72)*** 318/440 (72)*** DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 + ΔmTSS ≤0.5 216/462 (47) 260/443 (59) 266/443 (60) 112/459 (24)*** 196/440 (45) 211/440 (48)*** DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 + HAQ-DI <0.5 + ΔmTSS ≤0.5 146/462 (32) 168/443 (38) 174/443 (39) 82/459 (18)*** 120/440 (27)*** 135/440 (31)** aIncludes patients from the ADA Continuation (n = 105) and OL ADA Carry On (n = 259) arms, as well as the proportional equivalent number of responders from the ADA Withdrawal arm (n = 102). bIncludes patients from the MTX Continuation (n = 112) and Rescue ADA (n = 348) arms. Last observation carried forward: DAS28 (CRP) and HAQ-DI; Multiple imputations: ΔmTSS. ***P < 0.001 and **iP < 0.01, respectively, for differences between initial treatments from chi-squar

Cost-effectiveness of ranibizumab and bevacizumab for age-related macular degeneration: 2-year findings from the IVAN randomised trial

Objective To assess the incremental cost and cost-effectiveness of continuous and discontinuous regimens of bevacizumab (Avastin) and ranibizumab (Lucentis) for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Design A within-trial cost-utility analysis with a 2-year time horizon, based on a multicentre factorial, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial. Setting 23 hospital ophthalmology clinics. Participants 610 patients aged ≥50 years with untreated nAMD in the study eye. Interventions 0.5 mg ranibizumab or 1.25 mg bevacizumab given continuously (monthly) or discontinuously (as-needed) for 2 years. Main outcome measures Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results Total 2-year costs ranged from £3002/patient ($4700; 95$29 106; 95% CI £18 258 to £18 922) for continuous ranibizumab. Ranibizumab was significantly more costly than bevacizumab for both continuous (+£14 989/patient ($23 468); 95$13 305); 95% CI £7700 to £9295; p<0.001), with negligible difference in QALYs. Continuous ranibizumab would only be cost-effective compared with continuous bevacizumab if the NHS were willing to pay £3.5 million ($5.5 million) per additional QALY gained. Patients receiving continuous bevacizumab accrued higher total costs (+£599 ($938); 95% CI £91 to £1107; p=0.021) than those receiving discontinuous bevacizumab, but also accrued non-significantly more QALYs (+0.020; 95% CI −0.032 to 0.071; p=0.452). Continuous bevacizumab therefore cost £30 220 ($47 316) per QALY gained versus discontinuous bevacizumab. However, bootstrapping demonstrated that if the NHS is willing to pay £20 000/QALY gained, there is a 37% chance that continuous bevacizumab is cost-effective versus discontinuous bevacizumab. Conclusions Ranibizumab is not cost-effective compared with bevacizumab, being substantially more costly and producing little or no QALY gain. Discontinuous bevacizumab is likely to be the most cost-effective of the four treatment strategies evaluated in this UK trial, although there is a 37% chance that continuous bevacizumab is cost-effective. Trial registration number ISRCTN92166560

Spectroscopic characterization of the atmospheres of potentially habitable planets: GL 581 d as a model case study

(abridged) The Super-Earth candidate GL 581 d is the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet. Therefore, GL 581 d is used to illustrate a hypothetical detailed spectroscopic characterization of such planets. Atmospheric profiles from 1D radiative-convective model scenarios of GL 581 d were used to calculate high-resolution synthetic spectra. From the spectra, signal-to-noise ratios were calculated for a telescope such as the planned James Webb Space Telescope. The presence of the model atmospheres could be clearly inferred from the calculated synthetic spectra due to strong water and carbon dioxide absorption bands. Surface temperatures could be inferred for model scenarios with optically thin spectral windows. Dense, CO2-rich scenarios did not allow for the characterization of surface temperatures and to assess habitability. Degeneracies between CO2 concentration and surface pressure further complicated the interpretation of the calculated spectra, hence the determination of atmospheric conditions. Still, inferring approximative CO2 concentrations and surface pressures would be possible. In practice, detecting atmospheric signals is challenging. The SNR for a single transit was only larger than unity in some near-IR bands for transmission spectroscopy. Most interestingly, the false-positive detection of biomarker candidates such as methane and ozone could be possible in low resolution spectra due to the presence of CO2 absorption bands which overlap with biomarker spectral bands. This can be avoided however by observing all main CO2 IR bands instead of concentrating on, e.g., the 4.3 or 15 micron bands only. Furthermore, a masking of ozone signatures by CO2 absorption bands is shown to be possible. Simulations imply that such a false-negative detection of ozone would be possible even for rather large ozone concentrations of up to 1E-5.Comment: accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 14 pages, 12 figures, 3 table

Association of Variants at 1q32 and STAT3 with Ankylosing Spondylitis Suggests Genetic Overlap with Crohn's Disease

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common inflammatory arthritic condition. Overt inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) occurs in about 10% of AS patients, and in addition 70% of AS cases may have subclinical terminal ileitis. Spondyloarthritis is also common in IBD patients. We therefore tested Crohn's disease susceptibility genes for association with AS, aiming to identify pleiotropic genetic associations with both diseases. Genotyping was carried out using Sequenom and Applied Biosystems TaqMan and OpenArray technologies on 53 markers selected from 30 Crohn's disease associated genomic regions. We tested genotypes in a population of unrelated individual cases (n = 2,773) and controls (n = 2,215) of white European ancestry for association with AS. Statistical analysis was carried out using a Cochran-Armitage test for trend in PLINK. Strong association was detected at chr1q32 near KIF21B (rs11584383, P = 1.6×10−10, odds ratio (OR) = 0.74, 95% CI:0.68–0.82). Association with disease was also detected for 2 variants within STAT3 (rs6503695, P = 4.6×10−4. OR = 0.86 (95% CI:0.79–0.93); rs744166, P = 2.6×10−5, OR = 0.84 (95% CI:0.77–0.91)). Association was confirmed for IL23R (rs11465804, P = 1.2×10−5, OR = 0.65 (95% CI:0.54–0.79)), and further associations were detected for IL12B (rs10045431, P = 5.2×10−5, OR = 0.83 (95% CI:0.76–0.91)), CDKAL1 (rs6908425, P = 1.1×10−4, OR = 0.82 (95% CI:0.74–0.91)), LRRK2/MUC19 (rs11175593, P = 9.9×10−5, OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.38–2.67)), and chr13q14 (rs3764147, P = 5.9×10−4, OR = 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08–1.31)). Excluding cases with clinical IBD did not significantly affect these findings. This study identifies chr1q32 and STAT3 as ankylosing spondylitis susceptibility loci. It also further confirms association for IL23R and detects suggestive association with another 4 loci. STAT3 is a key signaling molecule within the Th17 lymphocyte differentiation pathway and further enhances the case for a major role of this T-lymphocyte subset in ankylosing spondylitis. Finally these findings suggest common aetiopathogenic pathways for AS and Crohn's disease and further highlight the involvement of common risk variants across multiple diseases

Lament as Transitional Justice

Works of human rights literature help to ground the formal rights system in an informal rights ethos. Writers have developed four major modes of human rights literature: protest, testimony, lament, and laughter. Through interpretations of poetry in Carolyn Forché’s anthology, Against Forgetting, and novels from Rwanda, the United States, and Bosnia, I focus on the mode of lament, the literature of mourning. Lament is a social and ritualized form, the purposes of which are congruent with the aims of transitional justice institutions. Both laments and truth commissions employ grieving narratives to help survivors of human rights trauma bequeath to the ghosts of the past the justice of a monument while renewing the survivors’ capacity for rebuilding civil society in the future. Human rights scholars need a broader, extra-juridical meaning for “transitional justice” if we hope to capture its power