Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior

Influence of peat formation conditions on the transformation of peat deposit organic matter

The paper studies the individual composition of n-alkanes, polycycloaromatic hydrocarbons, steroids, bi-, tri-, and pentacyclic terpenoids of two peat deposits of rich fen Kirek located in Western Siberia. Considering the individual n-alkanes concentrations, some indexes were calculated to estimate the humidity during peat formation. It was shown that the pH of peat medium primarily affects steroids, tri- and pentacyclic terpenoids transformations

Fractional Quantum Hall Effect in a Diluted Magnetic Semiconductor

We report the observation of the fractional quantum Hall effect in the lowest Landau level of a two-dimensional electron system (2DES), residing in the diluted magnetic semiconductor Cd(1-x)Mn(x)Te. The presence of magnetic impurities results in a giant Zeeman splitting leading to an unusual ordering of composite fermion Landau levels. In experiment, this results in an unconventional opening and closing of fractional gaps around filling factor v = 3/2 as a function of an in-plane magnetic field, i.e. of the Zeeman energy. By including the s-d exchange energy into the composite Landau level spectrum the opening and closing of the gap at filling factor 5/3 can be modeled quantitatively. The widely tunable spin-splitting in a diluted magnetic 2DES provides a novel means to manipulate fractional states

Nonequilibrium effects due to charge fluctuations in intrinsic Josephson systems

Nonequilibrium effects in layered superconductors forming a stack of intrinsic Josephson junctions are investigated. We discuss two basic nonequilibrium effects caused by charge fluctuations on the superconducting layers: a) the shift of the chemical potential of the condensate and b) charge imbalance of quasi-particles, and study their influence on IV-curves and the position of Shapiro steps.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures, revised version slightly shortene

Early-Adulthood Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Profiles Among Individuals With and Without Diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE Many studies of diabetes have examined risk factors at the time of diabetes diagnosis instead of considering the lifetime burden of adverse risk factor levels. We examined the 30-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor burden that participants have up to the time of diabetes diagnosis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Among participants free of CVD, incident diabetes cases (fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL or treatment) occurring at examinations 2 through 8 (1979–2008) of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort were age- and sex-matched 1:2 to controls. CVD risk factors (hypertension, high LDL cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol, high triglycerides, obesity) were measured at the time of diabetes diagnosis and at time points 10, 20, and 30 years prior. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare risk factor levels at each time point between diabetes cases and controls. RESULTS We identified 525 participants with new-onset diabetes who were matched to 1,049 controls (mean age, 60 years; 40% women). Compared with those without diabetes, individuals who eventually developed diabetes had higher levels of hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; P = 0.003), high LDL (OR, 1.5; P = 0.04), low HDL (OR, 2.1; P = 0.0001), high triglycerides (OR, 1.7; P = 0.04), and obesity (OR, 3.3; P < 0.0001) at time points 30 years before diabetes diagnosis. After further adjustment for BMI, the ORs for hypertension (OR, 1.9; P = 0.02) and low HDL (OR, 1.7; P = 0.01) remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS CVD risk factors are increased up to 30 years before diagnosis of diabetes. These findings highlight the importance of a life course approach to CVD risk factor identification among individuals at risk for diabetes

Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model

The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF model does not show sound long memory. We propose a modified version of the MF model by including a new ingredient, that is, long memory in the aggressiveness (quantified by the relative prices) of incoming orders, which is an important stylized fact identified by analyzing the order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks. Long memory emerges in the volatility synthesized from the modified MF model with the DFA scaling exponent close to 0.76, and the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of prices are also produced at the same time. We also find that the long memory of order signs has no impact on the long memory property of volatility, and the memory effect of order aggressiveness has little impact on the diffusiveness of stock prices.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures and 1 tabl

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Magnetic Catalysis in AdS4

We study the formation of fermion condensates in Anti de Sitter space. In particular, we describe a novel version of magnetic catalysis that arises for fermions in asymptotically AdS4 geometries which cap off in the infra-red with a hard wall. We show that the presence of a magnetic field induces a fermion condensate in the bulk that spontaneously breaks CP symmetry. From the perspective of the dual boundary theory, this corresponds to a strongly coupled version of magnetic catalysis in d=2+1.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures. v2: References added, factors of 2 corrected, extra comments added in appendix. v3: extra comments about fermion modes in a hard wall background. v4: A final factor of

Inverse magnetic catalysis in field theory and gauge-gravity duality

We investigate the surface of the chiral phase transition in the three-dimensional parameter space of temperature, baryon chemical potential and magnetic field in two different approaches, the field-theoretical Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model and the holographic Sakai-Sugimoto model. The latter is a top-down approach to a gravity dual of QCD with an asymptotically large number of colors and becomes, in a certain limit, dual to an NJL-like model. Our main observation is that, at nonzero chemical potential, a magnetic field can restore chiral symmetry, in apparent contrast to the phenomenon of magnetic catalysis. This "inverse magnetic catalysis" occurs in the Sakai-Sugimoto model and, for sufficiently large coupling, in the NJL model and is related to the physics of the lowest Landau level. While in most parts our discussion is a pedagogical review of previously published results, we include new analytical results for the NJL approach and a thorough comparison of inverse magnetic catalysis in the two approaches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, to appear in Lect. Notes Phys. "Strongly interacting matter in magnetic fields" (Springer), edited by D. Kharzeev, K. Landsteiner, A. Schmitt, H.-U. Ye