Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 \pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 \pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$\Phi$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 \pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 \pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Combined Multipoint Remote and In Situ Observations of the Asymmetric Evolution of a Fast Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied

STEREO and Wind observations of a fast ICME flank triggering a prolonged geomagnetic storm on 5-7 April 2010

On 5 April 2010 an interplanetary (IP) shock was detected by the Wind spacecraft ahead of Earth, followed by a fast (average speed 650 km/s) IP coronal mass ejection (ICME). During the subsequent moderate geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -72 nT, maximum Kp=8-), communication with the Galaxy 15 satellite was lost. We link images from STEREO/SECCHI to the near-Earth in situ observations and show that the ICME did not decelerate much between Sun and Earth. The ICME flank was responsible for a long storm growth phase. This type of glancing collision was for the first time directly observed with the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers. The magnetic cloud (MC) inside the ICME cannot be modeled with approaches assuming an invariant direction. These observations confirm the hypotheses that parts of ICMEs classified as (1) long-duration MCs or (2) magnetic-cloud-like (MCL) structures can be a consequence of a spacecraft trajectory through the ICME flank.Comment: Geophysical Research Letters (accepted); 3 Figure

Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images

The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how this drag affects the result of the F\Phi and HM fitting methods. A simple drag model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of propagation of up to 15 deg and 30 deg for the F\Phi and HM fitting methods, respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is affected by the acceleration more greatly than the F\Phi fitting method. Overall, we find that both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for fast CMEs propagating beyond 90 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be better reproduced by the F\Phi due to the cancellation of two errors: neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.Comment: Solar Physics, Online First, 17 page

Integrating organizational, social, and individual perspectives in Web 2.0-based workplace e-learning

From the issue entitled 'Special Issue: Emerging Social and Legal Aspect'E-learning is emerging as a popular approach of education in the workplace by virtue of its flexibility to access, just-in-time delivery, and cost-effectiveness. To improve social interaction and knowledge sharing in e-learning, Web 2.0 is increasingly utilized and integrated with e-learning applications. However, existing social learning systems fail to align learning with organizational goals and individual needs in a systemic way. The dominance of technology-oriented approaches makes elearning applications less goal-effective and poor in quality and design. To solve the problem, we address the requirement of integrating organizational, social, and individual perspectives in the development of Web 2.0 elearning systems. To fulfill the requirement, a key performance indicator (KPI)-oriented approach is presented in this study. By integrating a KPI model with Web 2.0 technologies, our approach is able to: 1) set up organizational goals and link the goals with expertise required for individuals; 2) build a knowledge network by linking learning resources to a set of competences to be developed and a group of people who learn and contribute to the knowledge network through knowledge creation, sharing, and peer evaluation; and 3) improve social networking and knowledge sharing by identifying each individual's work context, expertise, learning need, performance, and contribution. The mechanism of the approach is explored and elaborated with conceptual frameworks and implementation technologies. A prototype system for Web 2.0 e-learning has been developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009.postprin

Thermo-mechanical factors influencing annealing twin development in nickel during recrystallization

Abstract The effects of prior stored energy level, annealing temperature, heating velocity, and initial grain size on annealing twin development during static recrystallization of commercially pure nickel (99.999 %) are investigated. The twin content (measured as the twin boundary density or as the number of twins per grain) at the end of recrystallization is shown to be primarily influenced by the prior stored energy level and by the initial grain size, but the effects of heating rate and the annealing temperature are negligible. Taken together, the results are consistent with a new proposition that roughness of the recrystallization front promotes the formation of annealing twins during recrystallization

In situ characterization of laser-generated melt pools using synchronized ultrasound and high-speed X-ray imaging

Metal additive manufacturing is a fabrication method that forms a part by fusing layers of powder to one another. An energy source, such as a laser, is commonly used to heat the metal powder sufficiently to cause a molten pool to form, which is known as the melt pool. The melt pool can exist in the conduction or the keyhole mode where the material begins to rapidly evaporate. The interaction between the laser and the material is physically complex and difficult to predict or measure. In this article, high-speed X-ray imaging was combined with immersion ultrasound to obtain synchronized measurements of stationary laser-generated melt pools. Furthermore, two-dimensional and three-dimensional finite-element simulations were conducted to help explain the ultrasonic response in the experiments. In particular, the time-of-flight and amplitude in pulse-echo configuration were observed to have a linear relationship to the depth of the melt pool. These results are promising for the use of ultrasound to characterize the melt pool behavior and for finite-element simulations to aid in interpretation

An Analysis of the Origin and Propagation of the Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections of 2010 August 1

On 2010 August 1, the northern solar hemisphere underwent significant activity that involved a complex set of active regions near central meridian with, nearby, two large prominences and other more distant active regions. This activity culminated in the eruption of four major coronal mass ejections (CMEs), effects of which were detected at Earth and other solar system bodies. Recognizing the unprecedented wealth of data from the wide range of spacecraft that were available—providing the potential for us to explore methods for CME identification and tracking, and to assess issues regarding onset and planetary impact—we present a comprehensive analysis of this sequence of CMEs. We show that, for three of the four major CMEs, onset is associated with prominence eruption, while the remaining CME appears to be closely associated with a flare. Using instrumentation on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, three of the CMEs could be tracked out to elongations beyond 50°; their directions and speeds have been determined by various methods, not least to assess their potential for Earth impact. The analysis techniques that can be applied to the other CME, the first to erupt, are more limited since that CME was obscured by the subsequent, much faster event before it had propagated far from the Sun; we discuss the speculation that these two CMEs interact. The consistency of the results, derived from the wide variety of methods applied to such an extraordinarily complete data set, has allowed us to converge on robust interpretations of the CME onsets and their arrivals at 1 AU