Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted

Information-Theoretic Methods for Identifying Relationships among Climate Variables

Information-theoretic quantities, such as entropy, are used to quantify the amount of information a given variable provides. Entropies can be used together to compute the mutual information, which quantifies the amount of information two variables share. However, accurately estimating these quantities from data is extremely challenging. We have developed a set of computational techniques that allow one to accurately compute marginal and joint entropies. These algorithms are probabilistic in nature and thus provide information on the uncertainty in our estimates, which enable us to establish statistical significance of our findings. We demonstrate these methods by identifying relations between cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and data from other sources, such as equatorial pacific sea surface temperatures (SST).Comment: Presented at the Earth-Sun System Technology Conference (ESTC 2008), Adelphi, MD. http://esto.nasa.gov/conferences/estc2008/ 3 pages, 3 figures. Appears in the Proceedings of the Earth-Sun System Technology Conference (ESTC 2008), Adelphi, M

Determination and impact of surface radiative processes for TOGA COARE

Experiments using atmospheric general circulation models have shown that the atmospheric circulation is very sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific Ocean warm pool region. The mutual sensitivity of the ocean and the atmosphere in the warm pool region places stringent requirements on models of the coupled ocean atmosphere system. At present, the situation is such that diagnostic studies using available data sets have been unable to balance the surface energy budget in the warm pool region to better than 50 to 80 W/sq m. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) is an observation and modelling program that aims specifically at the elucidation of the physical process which determine the mean and transient state of the warm pool region and the manner in which the warm pool interacts with the global ocean and atmosphere. This project focuses on one very important aspect of the ocean atmosphere interface component of TOGA COARE, namely the temporal and spatial variability of surface radiative fluxes in the warm pool region

ISCCP CX observations during the FIRE/SRB Wisconsin Experiment from October 14 through November 2, 1986

Maps and tables are presented which show 45 satellite derived physical, radiation, or cloud parameters from ISCCP CX tapes during the FIRE/SRB Wisconsin experiment region from October 14 through November 2, 1986. Pixel locations selected for presentation are for an area which coincided with a 100 x 100 km array of evenly spaced ground truth sites. Area-averaged parameters derived from the ISSCP data should be consistent with area averages from the groundtruth stations

Adaptive finite element analysis based on p-convergence

The results of numerical experiments are presented in which a posteriori estimators of error in strain energy were examined on the basis of a typical problem in linear elastic fracture mechanics. Two estimators were found to give close upper and lower bounds for the strain energy error. The potential significance of this is that the same estimators may provide a suitable basis for adaptive redistribution of the degrees of freedom in finite element models

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings of the Earth-Sun System Technology Conference (ESTC 2005), Adelphi, M

GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study

Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets to within 10-20% for long term (1986-1995), large-scale global to regional annual means

The sensitivity of land emissivity estimates from AMSR-E at C and X bands to surface properties

Microwave observations at low frequencies exhibit more sensitivity to surface and subsurface properties with little interference from the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to develop a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and to investigate its sensitivity to land surface properties. The developed product complements existing land emissivity products from SSM/I and AMSU by adding land emissivity estimates at two lower frequencies, 6.9 and 10.65 GHz (C- and X-band, respectively). Observations at these low frequencies penetrate deeper into the soil layer. Ancillary data used in the analysis, such as surface skin temperature and cloud mask, are obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Atmospheric properties are obtained from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations to determine the small upwelling and downwelling atmospheric emissions as well as the atmospheric transmission. A sensitivity test confirms the small effect of the atmosphere but shows that skin temperature accuracy can significantly affect emissivity estimates. Retrieved emissivities at C- and X-bands and their polarization differences exhibit similar patterns of variation with changes in land cover type, soil moisture, and vegetation density as seen at SSM/I-like frequencies (Ka and Ku bands). The emissivity maps from AMSR-E at these higher frequencies agree reasonably well with the existing SSM/I-based product. The inherent discrepancy introduced by the difference between SSM/I and AMSR-E frequencies, incidence angles, and calibration has been assessed. Significantly greater standard deviation of estimated emissivities compared to SSM/I land emissivity product was found over desert regions. Large differences between emissivity estimates from ascending and descending overpasses were found at lower frequencies due to the inconsistency between thermal IR skin temperatures and passive microwave brightness temperatures which can originate from below the surface. The mismatch between day and night AMSR-E emissivities is greater than ascending and descending differences of SSM/I emissivity. This is because of unique orbit time of AMSR-E (01:30 a.m./p.m. LT) while other microwave sensors have orbit time of 06:00 to 09:00 (a.m./p.m.). This highlights the importance of considering the penetration depth of the microwave signal and diurnal variability of the temperature in emissivity retrieval. The effect of these factors is greater for AMSR-E observations than SSM/I observations, as AMSR-E observations exhibit a greater difference between day and night measures. This issue must be addressed in future studies to improve the accuracy of the emissivity estimates especially at AMSR-E lower frequencies

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty

Clear sky fraction above Indonesia: an analysis for astronomical site selection

We report a study of cloud cover over Indonesia based on meteorological satellite data, spanning over the past 15 years (from 1996 to 2010) in order to be able to select a new astronomical site capable to host a multi-wavelength astronomical observatory. High spatial resolution of meteorological satellite data acquired from {\it Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5} ({\it GMS 5}), {\it Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 9} ({\it GOES 9}), and {\it Multi-functional Transport Satellite-1R} ({\it MTSAT-1R}) are used to derive yearly average clear fractions over the regions of Indonesia. This parameter is determined from temperature measurement of the IR3 channel (water vapor, 6.7 $\mu$m) for high altitude clouds (cirrus) and from the IR1 channel (10.7 $\mu$m) for lower altitude clouds. Accordingly, an algorithm is developed to detect the corresponding clouds. The results of this study are then adopted to select the best possible sites in Indonesia to be analysed further by performing in situ measurements planned for the coming years. The results suggest that regions of East Nusa Tenggara, located in south-eastern part of Indonesia, are the most promising candidates for such an astronomical site. Yearly clear sky fraction of this regions may reach better than 70 per cent with an uncertainty of 10 per cent.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, and 4 table