Modeling the human as a controller in a multitask environment

Modeling the human as a controller of slowly responding systems with preview is considered. Along with control tasks, discrete noncontrol tasks occur at irregular intervals. In multitask situations such as these, it has been observed that humans tend to apply piecewise constant controls. It is believed that the magnitude of controls and the durations for which they remain constant are dependent directly on the system bandwidth, preview distance, complexity of the trajectory to be followed, and nature of the noncontrol tasks. A simple heuristic model of human control behavior in this situation is presented. The results of a simulation study, whose purpose was determination of the sensitivity of the model to its parameters, are discussed

Supervisory sampling and control: Sources of suboptimality in a prediction task

A process supervisor is defined as a person who decides when to sample the process input and what values of a control variable to specify in order to maximize (minimize) a given value function of input sampling period, control setting, and process state. Presented experimental data in such a process where the value function is a time-averaged sampling cost plus mean squared difference between input and control variable. The task was unpaced prediction of the output of a second order filter driven by white noise. Experimental results, when compared to the optical strategy, reveal several consistently suboptimal behaviors. One is a tendency not to choose a long prediction interval even though the optimal strategy dictates that one should. Some results are also interpreted in terms of those input parameters according to which each subjects' behavior would have been nearest optimal. Differences of those parameters from actual input parameters served to quantify how subjects' prediction behavior differed from optimal

A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed

Putting Computerized Instruction to the Test: A Randomized Evaluation of a "Scientifically-based" Reading Program

Although schools across the country are investing heavily in computers in the classroom, there is surprisingly little evidence that they actually improve student achievement. In this paper we present results from a randomized study of a well-defined use of computers in schools: a popular instructional computer program, known as Fast ForWord, which is designed to improve language and reading skills. We assess the impact of the program using four different measures of language and reading ability. Our estimates suggest that while use of the computer program may improve some aspects of students' language skills, it does not appear that these gains translate into a broader measure of language acquisition or into actual reading skills.

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

The role of the pilot and crew for future aircraft is discussed. Fifteen formal experimental studies and the development of a variety of models of human behavior based on queueing history, pattern recognition methods, control theory, fuzzy set theory, and artificial intelligence concepts are presented. L.F.M

Prospects of a mathematical theory of human behavior in complex man-machine systems tasks

A hierarchy of human activities is derived by analyzing automobile driving in general terms. A structural description leads to a block diagram and a time-sharing computer analogy. The range of applicability of existing mathematical models is considered with respect to the hierarchy of human activities in actual complex tasks. Other mathematical tools so far not often applied to man machine systems are also discussed. The mathematical descriptions at least briefly considered here include utility, estimation, control, queueing, and fuzzy set theory as well as artificial intelligence techniques. Some thoughts are given as to how these methods might be integrated and how further work might be pursued

A model of human event detection in multiple process monitoring situations

It is proposed that human decision making in many multi-task situations might be modeled in terms of the manner in which the human detects events related to his tasks and the manner in which he allocates his attention among his tasks once he feels events have occurred. A model of human event detection performance in such a situation is presented. An assumption of the model is that, in attempting to detect events, the human generates the probability that events have occurred. Discriminant analysis is used to model the human's generation of these probabilities. An experimental study of human event detection performance in a multiple process monitoring situation is described and the application of the event detection model to this situation is addressed. The experimental study employed a situation in which subjects simulataneously monitored several dynamic processes for the occurrence of events and made yes/no decisions on the presence of events in each process. Input to the event detection model of the information displayed to the experimental subjects allows comparison of the model's performance with the performance of the subjects

Pilot decision making in a computer-aided flight management situation

An experimental representation of a computer-aided multi-task flight management situation has been developed. A computer aiding program was implemented to serve as a back-up decision maker. An experiment was conducted with a balanced design of several subject runs for different workload levels. This was achieved using three levels of subsystem event arrival rates, three levels of control task involvement, and three levels of availability of computer aiding. Experimental results compared quite favorably with those from a computer simulation which employed a queueing model. It was shown that the aiding had enhanced system performance as well as subjective ratings, and that the adaptive aiding policy further reduced subsystem delay

Human operator response to error-likely situations in complex engineering systems

The causes of human error in complex systems are examined. First, a conceptual framework is provided in which two broad categories of error are discussed: errors of action, or slips, and errors of intention, or mistakes. Conditions in which slips and mistakes might be expected to occur are identified, based on existing theories of human error. Regarding the role of workload, it is hypothesized that workload may act as a catalyst for error. Two experiments are presented in which humans' response to error-likely situations were examined. Subjects controlled PLANT under a variety of conditions and periodically provided subjective ratings of mental effort. A complex pattern of results was obtained, which was not consistent with predictions. Generally, the results of this research indicate that: (1) humans respond to conditions in which errors might be expected by attempting to reduce the possibility of error, and (2) adaptation to conditions is a potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations. Subjects' explanations for changes in effort ratings are also explored

Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifying limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility