Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

PREVALENCE OF BRUCELLOSIS IN LIVESTOCK AND INCIDENCES IN HUMANS IN EAST AFRICA

Brucellosis is an emerging zoonotic disease that poses a threat to both livestock and public health in east Africa. There are several reports of occurrence of the disease in livestock populations especially in Tanzania and Kenya, suggesting chances of increased spread to humans, and the disease being misdiagnosed for malaria. The objective of this study was to determine brucellosis prevalence in livestock and incidence in humans among pastoralists and agro-pastoralists communities in some areas of Kenya and Tanzania. A total of 2349 ruminants were screened using different serological techniques, in the selected areas. Serum samples from the Southern Highlands Zone (SHZ), Northern zone (NZ) and Eastern Zone (EZ) were screened using Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) antigen, and later positive samples were confirmed using competitive enzyme linked immune-sorbent assay (c-ELISA). Results showed prevalence of 11.4% in the SHZ (n=799), 2.4% in the EZ (n=169) and 1% in the NZ (n= 408). Milk ring test was used to test milk samples from Migori, West Pokot and Mwingi, and the prevalences recorded in cattle were 17.9% (n=56) in 2012 and 11.7 (n=77) in 2014. Within the same period, West Pokot recorded prevalence of up to 21.9% (n=96) in cattle and 16.7% (n=6) in goats. Generally, Migori had lower prevalence in Kenya, but being the third lower in Tanzania and Kenya with the prevalence being 4.3% (n=70) in goats and 2.2% (n=45) in goats. Serum from cattle and goats were tested using compliment fixation test (CFT); showing 0.9% (n=212) prevalence in Migori. In West Pokot, the prevalence was 4.0% (n=101) in cattle, 20% (n=100) in goats and 13.8% (=29) in sheep; whereas in Mwingi prevalence was 4.75% (n=43) and 9.5% (n=21) in cattle and goats respectively. A total of 1,140 human cases were followed up in selected study areas where livestock samples were collected, and an overall incidence of 22.7% (n=1140) was confirmed. Selected areas in Tanzania had an incidence of 28.2% (n=578) and in Kenya 17.1% (n=562). Brucellosis is endemic in many areas of Tanzania and Kenya and pose a high risk to human health.La brucellose est une zoonose qui constitue une menace pour la sante animale et humaine dans l\u2018 Afrique de l\u2018Est. Il existe beaucoup de rapports signalant la pr\ue9sence de cette maladie dans les populations d\u2019animaux, specialement en \ue9levage dans la Tanzanie et au Kenya. Ces rapports font aussi \ue9tat de ce qu\u2019il y ait des chances de contamination humaine, et la maladie est en train d\u2019\ueatre mal diagnostiqu\ue9e parce qu\u2019elle est confondue au paludisme. L\u2019objectif de cette \ue9tude \ue9tait de d\ue9terminer la pr\ue9valence de brucellose en \ue9levage et son incidence dans les humains, dans les communaut\ue9s de pastoralistes et agro-pastoralistes en Tanzanie et au Kenya. Un ensemble de 1,702 ruminant ont \ue9t\ue9 d\ue9pist\ue9s dans les zones d\u2019\ue9tude en se servant de techniques s\ue9rologiques diff\ue9rentes. Des \ue9chantillons de s\ue9rum venant de la zone Sud (SHZ), de la zone Nord (NZ) et de la zone Est (EZ) ont \ue9t\ue9 analyses par des tests de d\ue9tection d\u2019antig\ue8ne au Rose Bengale sur plaque (RBPT), et plus tard, les \ue9chantillons positifs ont \ue9t\ue9 confirmes par des \ue9preuves immuno-enzymatiques (c-ELISA). Les resultats montrait une pr\ue9valence de 11,4% dans la SHZ (n=799)\ua0; 2\ua0,4% dans l\u2019EZ (n=169) et 1% dans la NZ (n= 408). Des \ue9preuves de l\u2019anneau sur le lait ont permis de tester les \ue9chantillons de lait de Migori, West Pokot et Mwingi, et de pr\ue9valence enregistr\ue9e chez le bovin \ue9taient de 17,9% (n=56) en 2012 et 11,7 (n=77) en 2014. Dans la m\ueame p\ue9riode, West Pokot a enregistr\ue9 un taux de pr\ue9valence de 21.9% (n=96) chez le bovin et 16,7% (n=6) chez les caprins. De fa\ue7on g\ue9n\ue9rale, Migori exhibait de faibles taux de pr\ue9valence au Kenya, mais s\u2019est classe troisi\ue8me faible taux en Tanzanie et au Kenya avec une pr\ue9valence de 4,3% (n=70) chez les caprins 2,2% (n=45) chez les caprins. Du s\ue9rum pr\ue9lev\ue9 chez les bovins et caprins ont \ue9t\ue9 testes gr\ue2ce au test de fixation de compl\ue9ments (CFT)\ua0; montrait 0.9% (n=212) de pr\ue9valence en Migori. A West Pokot, la pr\ue9valence \ue9tait de 4,0% (n=101) chez les bovins, 20% (n=100) chez les caprins et 13,8% (=29) chez les ovins; tandis qu\u2019en Mwingi la pr\ue9valence \ue9tait de 4,75% (n=43) et 9,5% (n=21) respectivement chez les bovins et caprins. Un ensemble de 1,140 cas humains ont \ue9t\ue9 suivis dans la zone d\u2019\ue9tude ou les animaux ont \ue9t\ue9 \ue9chantillonn\ue9s. Une incidence globale de 22,7% (n=1140) a \ue9t\ue9 confirm\ue9e. Les zones s\ue9lectionn\ue9es en Tanzanie avaient une incidence de 28,2% (n=578) et 17,1% (n=562) au Kenya. Cet \ue9tude a montr\ue9 que la brucellose continue d\u2019\ueatre end\ue9mique dans plusieurs zones de la Tanzanie et du Kenya, et ceci constitue un grand risqu\ue9 pour la sant\ue9 humaine

Proceedings of the second horticulture seminar on sustainable horticultural production in the tropics

Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) method was used to identify seventeen Musa cultivars that were rated highly by the small-scale farmers in Kenya. The cultivars were studied alongside five reference cultivars of genomic groups AA, AB, AAA, AAB, and ABB. This investigation was done to uncover the genomic groups prevalent among the Kenyan cultivars, as well as sort out synonyms to enable in vitro production of true-to-type plants. Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers with ten 10-mer primers was used for molecular characterization. The primers generated sixty-nine genetic markers that were used in estimation of genomic groups and cultivar identification. Pairwise RAP Distance analysis of the data and subsequent generation of a genogram using the ‘Neighbor Joining Tree’ programme grouped the cultivars into two major clusters depending on their genomic similarities. One cluster comprised of the Kenya-highland bananas, which grouped with the AAA reference cultivar ‘Poyo’. The other cluster contained the coastal lowland cultivars, which grouped with the ABB, AAB, and AB reference cultivars ‘Saba’, `Kelong Mekindu`, and `Safet Velchi’ respectively. The dissimilarity analysis between the samples did not indicate duplication among the banana accessions. Each cultivar was genotypically different although some were closely related

One Hundred Priority Questions for the Development of Sustainable Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa

One Hundred Priority Questions for the Development of Sustainable Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa.</p

Dipeptidyl peptidase-1 inhibition in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial

Background Neutrophil serine proteases are involved in the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and increased serine protease activity has been reported in severe and fatal infection. We investigated whether brensocatib, an inhibitor of dipeptidyl peptidase-1 (DPP-1; an enzyme responsible for the activation of neutrophil serine proteases), would improve outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Methods In a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial, across 14 hospitals in the UK, patients aged 16 years and older who were hospitalised with COVID-19 and had at least one risk factor for severe disease were randomly assigned 1:1, within 96 h of hospital admission, to once-daily brensocatib 25 mg or placebo orally for 28 days. Patients were randomly assigned via a central web-based randomisation system (TruST). Randomisation was stratified by site and age (65 years or ≥65 years), and within each stratum, blocks were of random sizes of two, four, or six patients. Participants in both groups continued to receive other therapies required to manage their condition. Participants, study staff, and investigators were masked to the study assignment. The primary outcome was the 7-point WHO ordinal scale for clinical status at day 29 after random assignment. The intention-to-treat population included all patients who were randomly assigned and met the enrolment criteria. The safety population included all participants who received at least one dose of study medication. This study was registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN30564012. Findings Between June 5, 2020, and Jan 25, 2021, 406 patients were randomly assigned to brensocatib or placebo; 192 (47·3%) to the brensocatib group and 214 (52·7%) to the placebo group. Two participants were excluded after being randomly assigned in the brensocatib group (214 patients included in the placebo group and 190 included in the brensocatib group in the intention-to-treat population). Primary outcome data was unavailable for six patients (three in the brensocatib group and three in the placebo group). Patients in the brensocatib group had worse clinical status at day 29 after being randomly assigned than those in the placebo group (adjusted odds ratio 0·72 [95% CI 0·57–0·92]). Prespecified subgroup analyses of the primary outcome supported the primary results. 185 participants reported at least one adverse event; 99 (46%) in the placebo group and 86 (45%) in the brensocatib group. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal disorders and infections. One death in the placebo group was judged as possibly related to study drug. Interpretation Brensocatib treatment did not improve clinical status at day 29 in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Funding Sponsored by the University of Dundee and supported through an Investigator Initiated Research award from Insmed, Bridgewater, NJ; STOP-COVID19 trial

Dipeptidyl peptidase-1 inhibition in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial

Background Neutrophil serine proteases are involved in the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and increased serine protease activity has been reported in severe and fatal infection. We investigated whether brensocatib, an inhibitor of dipeptidyl peptidase-1 (DPP-1; an enzyme responsible for the activation of neutrophil serine proteases), would improve outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Methods In a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial, across 14 hospitals in the UK, patients aged 16 years and older who were hospitalised with COVID-19 and had at least one risk factor for severe disease were randomly assigned 1:1, within 96 h of hospital admission, to once-daily brensocatib 25 mg or placebo orally for 28 days. Patients were randomly assigned via a central web-based randomisation system (TruST). Randomisation was stratified by site and age (65 years or ≥65 years), and within each stratum, blocks were of random sizes of two, four, or six patients. Participants in both groups continued to receive other therapies required to manage their condition. Participants, study staff, and investigators were masked to the study assignment. The primary outcome was the 7-point WHO ordinal scale for clinical status at day 29 after random assignment. The intention-to-treat population included all patients who were randomly assigned and met the enrolment criteria. The safety population included all participants who received at least one dose of study medication. This study was registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN30564012. Findings Between June 5, 2020, and Jan 25, 2021, 406 patients were randomly assigned to brensocatib or placebo; 192 (47·3%) to the brensocatib group and 214 (52·7%) to the placebo group. Two participants were excluded after being randomly assigned in the brensocatib group (214 patients included in the placebo group and 190 included in the brensocatib group in the intention-to-treat population). Primary outcome data was unavailable for six patients (three in the brensocatib group and three in the placebo group). Patients in the brensocatib group had worse clinical status at day 29 after being randomly assigned than those in the placebo group (adjusted odds ratio 0·72 [95% CI 0·57–0·92]). Prespecified subgroup analyses of the primary outcome supported the primary results. 185 participants reported at least one adverse event; 99 (46%) in the placebo group and 86 (45%) in the brensocatib group. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal disorders and infections. One death in the placebo group was judged as possibly related to study drug. Interpretation Brensocatib treatment did not improve clinical status at day 29 in patients hospitalised with COVID-19

Diagnosis and control of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia

Le diagnostic de la pleuropneumonie contagieuse caprine a souvent été jugé difficile, cette maladie pouvant être confondue avec d'autres mycoplasmoses des petits ruminants. Les symptômes et lésions peuvent être similaires et l'isolement de Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (MccF38) nécessite une bonne compétence technique. Une fois les souches MccF38 isolées, leur identification ne devrait pas poser de problème. De nouvelles techniques, telles que l'amplification en chaîne par polymerase, offrent désormais la possibilité d'identifier MccF38 directement à partir de prélèvements lyophilisés. Toutefois, l'isolement de souches MccF38 reste obligatoire pour une déclaration officielle d'infection. Jusqu'à présent, le test sérologique de référence était l'épreuve de fixation du complément, ses principaux inconvénients étant l'absence de sensibilité et de spécificité, ainsi que la brève persistance des anticorps décelés au moyen de cette technique. L'épreuve immuno-enzymatique (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay : ELISA) de compétition, récemment mise au point, devrait désormais permettre de déterminer, à l'occasion de larges enquêtes sérologiques, la prévalence réelle de la maladie. Les traitements antibiotiques sont efficaces, mais ils ne peuvent prévenir la persistance d'un portage latent du mycoplasme. Unvaccin à mycoplasmes tués, adjuvé à la saponine, a été mis au poins au Kenya : il confère aux caprins une immunité d'environ un an. (Résumé d'auteur