Modeling the dynamic rupture propagation on heterogeneous faults with rate- and state-dependent friction

We investigate the effects of non-uniform distribution of constitutive parameters on the dynamic propagation of an earthquake rupture. We use a 2D finite difference numerical method and we assume that the dynamic rupture propagation is governed by a rate- and state-dependent constitutive law. We first discuss the results of several numerical experiments performed with different values of the constitutive parameters a (to account for the direct effect of friction), b (controlling the friction evolution) and L (the characteristic length-scale parameter) to simulate the dynamic rupture propagation on homogeneous faults. Spontaneous dynamic ruptures can be simulated on velocity weakening (a < b) fault patches: our results point out the dependence of the traction and slip velocity evolution on the adopted constitutive parameters. We therefore model the dynamic rupture propagation on heterogeneous faults. We use in this study the characterization of different frictional regimes proposed by Boatwright and Cocco (1996) based on different values of the constitutive parameters a, b and L. Our numerical simulations show that the heterogeneities of the L parameter affect the dynamic rupture propagation, control the peak slip velocity and weakly modify the dynamic stress drop and the rupture velocity. Moreover, a barrier can be simulated through a large contrast of L parameter. The heterogeneity of a and b parameters affects the dynamic rupture propagation in a more complex way. A velocity strengthening area (a > b) can arrest a dynamic rupture, but can be driven to an instability if suddenly loaded by the dynamic rupture front. Our simulations provide a picture of the complex interactions between fault patches having different frictional properties and illustrate how the traction and slip velocity evolutions are modified during the propagation on heterogeneous faults. These results involve interesting implications for slip duration and fracture energy

COVID-19 vaccination rates among adolescents (12–17 years) by immigrant background and sociodemographic factors: A nationwide registry study in Norway

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Diagnosis and follow-up of treatment of latent tuberculosis; the utility of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube assay in outpatients from a tuberculosis low-endemic country

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) Release Assays (IGRA) are more specific than the tuberculosis skin test (TST) in the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI). We present the performance of the QuantiFERON^®-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-TB) assay as diagnostic test and during follow-up of preventive TB therapy in outpatients from a TB low-endemic country.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>481 persons with suspected TB infection were tested with QFT-TB. Thoracic X-ray and sputum samples were performed and a questionnaire concerning risk factors for TB was filled. Three months of isoniazid and rifampicin were given to patients with LTBI and QFT-TB tests were performed after three and 15 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The QFT-TB test was positive in 30.8% (148/481) of the total, in 66.9% (111/166) of persons with origin from a TB endemic country, in 71.4% (20/28) previously treated for TB and in 100% (15/15) of those diagnosed with active TB with no inconclusive results. The QFT-TB test was more frequently positive in those with TST ≥ 15 mm (47.5%) compared to TST 11-14 mm (21.3%) and TST 6-10 mm (10.5%), (p < 0.001). Origin from a TB endemic country (OR 6.82, 95% CI 1.73-26.82), recent stay in a TB endemic country (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-1.59), duration of TB exposure (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.22) and previous TB disease (OR 11.60, 95% CI 2.02-66.73) were all independently associated with a positive QFT-TB test. After preventive therapy, 35/40 (87.5%) and 22/26 (84.6%) were still QFT-TB positive after three and 15 months, respectively. IFN-γ responses were comparable at start (mean 6.13 IU/ml ± SD 3.99) and after three months (mean 5.65 IU/ml ± SD 3.66) and 15 months (mean 5.65 IU/ml ± SD 4.14), (p > 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Only one third of those with suspected TB infection had a positive QFT-TB test. Recent immigration from TB endemic countries and long duration of exposure are risk factors for a positive QFT-TB test and these groups should be targeted through screening. Since most patients remained QFT-TB positive after therapy, the test should not be used to monitor the effect of preventive therapy. Prospective studies are needed in order to determine the usefulness of IGRA tests during therapy.</p

Tuberculosis screening and follow-up of asylum seekers in Norway: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>About 80% of new tuberculosis cases in Norway occur among immigrants from high incidence countries. On arrival to the country all asylum seekers are screened with Mantoux test and chest x-ray aimed to identify cases of active tuberculosis and, in the case of latent tuberculosis, to offer follow-up or prophylactic treatment.</p> <p>We assessed a national programme for screening, treatment and follow-up of tuberculosis infection and disease in a cohort of asylum seekers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Asylum seekers ≥ 18 years who arrived at the National Reception Centre from January 2005 to June 2006, were included as the total cohort. Those with a Mantoux test ≥ 6 mm or positive x-ray findings were included in a study group for follow-up.</p> <p>Data were collected from public health authorities in the municipality to where the asylum seekers had moved, and from hospital based internists in case they had been referred to specialist care.</p> <p>Individual subjects included in the study group were matched with the Norwegian National Tuberculosis Register which receive reports of everybody diagnosed with active tuberculosis, or who had started treatment for latent tuberculosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The total cohort included 4643 adult asylum seekers and 97.5% had a valid Mantoux test. At least one inclusion criterion was fulfilled by 2237 persons. By end 2007 municipal public health authorities had assessed 758 (34%) of them. Altogether 328 persons had been seen by an internist. Of 314 individuals with positive x-rays, 194 (62%) had seen an internist, while 86 of 568 with Mantoux ≥ 15, but negative x-rays (16%) were also seen by an internist. By December 31^st2006, 23 patients were diagnosed with tuberculosis (prevalence 1028/100 000) and another 11 were treated for latent infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The coverage of screening was satisfactory, but fewer subjects than could have been expected from the national guidelines were followed up in the community and referred to an internist. To improve follow-up of screening results, a simplification of organisation and guidelines, introduction of quality assurance systems, and better coordination between authorities and between different levels of health care are all required.</p

Fetal Movement Counting Improved Identification of Fetal Growth Restriction and Perinatal Outcomes – a Multi-Centre, Randomized, Controlled Trial

Background Fetal movement counting is a method used by the mother to quantify her baby's movements, and may prevent adverse pregnancy outcome by a timely evaluation of fetal health when the woman reports decreased fetal movements. We aimed to assess effects of fetal movement counting on identification of fetal pathology and pregnancy outcome. Methodology In a multicentre, randomized, controlled trial, 1076 pregnant women with singleton pregnancies from an unselected population were assigned to either perform fetal movement counting from gestational week 28, or to receive standard antenatal care not including fetal movement counting (controls). Women were recruited from nine Norwegian hospitals during September 2007 through November 2009. Main outcome was a compound measure of fetal pathology and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Analysis was performed by intention-to-treat. Principal Findings The frequency of the main outcome was equal in the groups; 63 of 433 (11.6%) in the intervention group, versus 53 of 532 (10.7%) in the control group [RR: 1.1 95% CI 0.7–1.5)]. The growth-restricted fetuses were more often identified prior to birth in the intervention group than in the control group; 20 of 23 fetuses (87.0%) versus 12 of 20 fetuses (60.0%), respectively, [RR: 1.5 (95% CI 1.0–2.1)]. In the intervention group two babies (0.4%) had Apgar scores <4 at 1 minute, versus 12 (2.3%) in the control group [RR: 0.2 (95% CI 0.04–0.7)]. The frequency of consultations for decreased fetal movement was 71 (13.1%) and 57 (10.7%) in the intervention and control groups, respectively [RR: 1.2 (95% CI 0.9–1.7)]. The frequency of interventions was similar in the groups. Conclusions Maternal ability to detect clinically important changes in fetal activity seemed to be improved by fetal movement counting; there was an increased identification of fetal growth restriction and improved perinatal outcome, without inducing more consultations or obstetric intervention

Treatment outcome of new culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Norway

BACKGROUND: The key elements in tuberculosis (TB) control are to cure the individual patient, interrupt transmission of TB to others and prevent the tubercle bacilli from becoming drug resistant. Incomplete treatment may result in excretion of bacteria that may also acquire drug resistance and cause increased morbidity and mortality. Treatment outcome results serves as a tool to control the quality of TB treatment provided by the health care system. The aims of this study were to evaluate the treatment outcome for new cases of culture positive pulmonary TB registered in Norway during the period 1996–2002 and to identify factors associated with non-successful treatment. METHODS: This was a register-based cohort study. Treatment outcome was assessed according to sex, birthplace, age group, isoniazid (INH) susceptibility, mode of detection and treatment periods (1996–1997, 1998–1999 and 2000–2002). Logistic regression was also used to estimate the odds ratio for treatment success vs. non-success with 95% confidence interval (CI), taking the above variables into account. RESULTS: Among the 655 patients included, the total treatment success rate was 83% (95% CI 80%–86%). The success rates for those born in Norway and abroad were 79% (95% CI 74%–84%) and 86% (95% CI 83%–89%) respectively. There was no difference in success rates by sex and treatment periods. Twenty-two patients (3%) defaulted treatment, 58 (9%) died and 26 (4%) transferred out. The default rate was higher among foreign-born and male patients, whereas almost all who died were born in Norway. The majority of the transferred out group left the country, but seven were expelled from the country. In the multivariate analysis, only high age and initial INH resistance remained as significant risk factors for non-successful treatment. CONCLUSION: Although the TB treatment success rate in Norway has increased compared to previous studies and although it has reached a reasonable target for treatment outcome in low-incidence countries, the total success rate for 1996–2002 was still slightly below the WHO target of success rate of 85%. Early diagnosis of TB in elderly patients to reduce the death rate, abstaining from expulsion of patients on treatment and further measures to prevent default could improve the success rate further

Pulsed Energy Storage System Design

A superconductive energy storage magnet which is connected to the three phase power system could be designed, constructed, and placed in operation at Fermilab which would essentially eliminate the large repetitive power pulses now required from the power system. In addition to the power pulses, voltage flicker is also caused due to the reactive power pulsation. Specifically, a one megawatt hour superconductive energy storage magnet and a 2.00 megawatt thyristorized converter can achieve nullification of these power pulses up to 400 GEV synchrotron operation. Above 400 GEV, operation should be possible up to 500 GEV with appreciable less power pulsing requirements from the system than are now considered permissible. Carried to successful completion, this project would serve to advance applied superconductivity to a highly significant degree. The effect would be of world wide importance to both high energy physics and to the electric power industry. The preliminary magnet design is a 1 MWh dipole composed of cryogenically stable composite conductors connected in parallel with aluminum shield windings. The shield windings carry impressed pulsed currents while eliminating pulsed currents from the dc superconductive windings. Without pulsed currents or pulsed magnetic fields there are no ac losses in standard helium. The major radius of the dipole is 8.85 m; the minor radius is 0.69m; there are 188 turns at 80,000 A and each turn is 4 conductors wound in parallel. The 20,000 A TiNb-copper composite conductor is l0x 1.12 cm in cross section similar to but larger than the FNAL bubble chamber conductor. The shield is 188 turns (equal number of turns is a shielding condition) of hollow aluminum conductor cooled via circulated cold helium gas at 40K. The turns are spaced around the minor circumference according to a cosine distribution which produces zero internal field. In use the shield loss converted to room temperature power is about .8MW when 0.1 MWh is used from a 1 MWh storage dipole. The 0.1 MWh is sufficient to provide complete load leveling for 400 GEV pulses, and operation at 500 GEV with lower power transients than are presently experienced

Compatibility of physical education curricula with physical literacy across 40 European countries

Although the student-centred concept of physical literacy (PL) has been emphasized by UNESCO, knowledge about its adoption/implementation into PE remains scant. Therefore, the goal of this study was to evaluate and compare the compatibility of PE curricula with PL in Europe. We collaboratively gathered a panel of experts encompassing 40 European countries. In the first step, the experts were invited to freely specify the compatibility of country’s PE curricula with PL. The reports were subjected to six-step reflexive thematic analysis. In the second step, we theoretically derived, psychometrically explored, and descriptively analysed 15 curricular-didactical items, each containing a spectrum of statements with high versus no/insufficient PL compatibility. We synthesized both data sources following an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design. While few PE curricula explicitly adhered to PL in Europe, most documents exhibited content and aims marking elements of PL. However, we registered large differences in PL-compatibility between four European regions for the deep structure of the curricula (η2=.27, p=.01). While the quantitative survey suggested no differences in PL compatibility between anglophone versus non-anglophone countries, the qualitative material revealed conceptual and terminological challenges across Europe. The European countries have hesitantly followed the UNESCO call to align PE with the holistic PL concept

The course of mental health after miscarriage and induced abortion: a longitudinal, five-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage and induced abortion are life events that can potentially cause mental distress. The objective of this study was to determine whether there are differences in the patterns of normalization of mental health scores after these two pregnancy termination events. METHODS: Forty women who experienced miscarriages and 80 women who underwent abortions at the main hospital of Buskerud County in Norway were interviewed. All subjects completed the following questionnaires 10 days (T1), six months (T2), two years (T3) and five years (T4) after the pregnancy termination: Impact of Event Scale (IES), Quality of Life, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and another addressing their feelings about the pregnancy termination. Differential changes in mean scores were determined by analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and inter-group differences were assessed by ordinary least squares methods. RESULTS: Women who had experienced a miscarriage had more mental distress at 10 days and six months after the pregnancy termination than women who had undergone an abortion. However, women who had had a miscarriage exhibited significantly quicker improvement on IES scores for avoidance, grief, loss, guilt and anger throughout the observation period. Women who experienced induced abortion had significantly greater IES scores for avoidance and for the feelings of guilt, shame and relief than the miscarriage group at two and five years after the pregnancy termination (IES avoidance means: 3.2 vs 9.3 at T3, respectively, p < 0.001; 1.5 vs 8.3 at T4, respectively, p < 0.001). Compared with the general population, women who had undergone induced abortion had significantly higher HADS anxiety scores at all four interviews (p < 0.01 to p < 0.001), while women who had had a miscarriage had significantly higher anxiety scores only at T1 (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The course of psychological responses to miscarriage and abortion differed during the five-year period after the event. Women who had undergone an abortion exhibited higher scores during the follow-up period for some outcomes. The difference in the courses of responses may partly result from the different characteristics of the two pregnancy termination events

Serotype distribution of remaining pneumococcal meningitis in the mature PCV10/13 period: Findings from the PSERENADE Project

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction has reduced pneumococcal meningitis incidence. The Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project described the serotype distribution of remaining pneumococcal meningitis in countries using PCV10/13 for least 5-7 years with primary series uptake above 70%. The distribution was estimated using a multinomial Dirichlet regression model, stratified by PCV product and age. In PCV10-using sites (N = 8; cases = 1141), PCV10 types caused 5% of cases <5 years of age and 15% among ≥5 years; the top serotypes were 19A, 6C, and 3, together causing 42% of cases <5 years and 37% ≥5 years. In PCV13-using sites (N = 32; cases = 4503), PCV13 types caused 14% in <5 and 26% in ≥5 years; 4% and 13%, respectively, were serotype 3. Among the top serotypes are five (15BC, 8, 12F, 10A, and 22F) included in higher-valency PCVs under evaluation. Other top serotypes (24F, 23B, and 23A) are not in any known investigational product. In countries with mature vaccination programs, the proportion of pneumococcal meningitis caused by vaccine-in-use serotypes is lower (≤26% across all ages) than pre-PCV (≥70% in children). Higher-valency PCVs under evaluation target over half of remaining pneumococcal meningitis cases, but questions remain regarding generalizability to the African meningitis belt where additional data are needed