Child mortality in rural Malawi: HIV closes the survival gap between the socio-economic strata

As HIV-related deaths increase in a population the usual association between low socioeconomic status and child mortality may change, particularly as death rates from other causes decline.METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As part of a demographic surveillance system in northern Malawi in 2002-6, covering a population of 32,000, information was collected on socio-economic status of the households. Deaths were classified as HIV/AIDS-related or not by verbal autopsy. Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of socio-economic indicators with all-cause mortality, AIDS-mortality and non-AIDS mortality among children. There were 195 deaths in infants, 109 in children aged 1-4 years, and 38 in children aged 5-15. All-cause child mortality in infants and 1-4 year olds was similar in households with higher and lower socio-economic status. In infants 13% of deaths were attributed to AIDS, and there were no clear trends with socio-economic status for AIDS or non-AIDS causes. For 1-4 year olds 27% of deaths were attributed to AIDS. AIDS mortality was higher among those with better built houses, and lowest in those with income from farming and fishing, whereas non-AIDS mortality was higher in those with worse built houses, lowest in those with income from employment, and decreased with increasing household assets.CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this population, since HIV infection among adults was initially more common among the less poor, childhood mortality patterns have changed. The usual gap in survival between the poor and the less poor has been lost, but because the less poor have been disproportionately affected by HIV, rather than because of relative improvement in the survival of the poorest

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

Background: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each. METHODS: We describe differences in the two sets of estimates. Where possible, we have drawn on additional published data to which estimates can be compared. FINDINGS: UNAIDS estimates that there were 6 million more people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 2013 (35 million) compared with the Murray et al. estimates (29 million). Murray et al. estimate that new infections and AIDS deaths have declined more gradually than does UNAIDS. Just under one third of the difference in PLHIV is in Africa, where Murray et al. have relied more on estimates of adult mortality trends than on data on survival times. Another third of the difference is in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Australasia. Here Murray et al. estimates of new infections are substantially lower than the number of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses reported by countries, whereas published UNAIDS estimate tend to be greater. The remaining differences are in Latin America and Asia where the data upon which the UNAIDS methods currently rely are more sparse, whereas the mortality data leveraged by Murray et al. may be stronger. In this region, however, anomalies appear to exist between the both sets of estimates and other data. INTERPRETATION: Both estimates indicate that approximately 30 million PLHIV and that antiretroviral therapy has driven large reductions in mortality. Both estimates are useful but show instructive discrepancies with additional data sources. We find little evidence to suggest that either set of estimates can be considered systematically more accurate. Further work should seek to build estimates on as wide a base of data as possible

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world. Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods. Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women. The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis. Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review.

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The relationship between HIV and fertility in the era of antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa – Evidence from 49 Demographic & Health Surveys

Objectives To describe regional differences in the relative fertility of HIV-positive vs. HIV-negative women and changes as antiretroviral treatment (ART) is scaled up, to improve estimates of predicted need for and coverage of prevention of mother-to-child transmission services at national and subnational levels. Methods We analysed 49 nationally representative household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2016 to estimate fertility rate ratios of HIV-positive and HIV-negative women by age using exponential regression and test for regional and urban/rural differences. We estimated the association between national ART coverage and the relationship between HIV and fertility. Results Significant regional differences exist in HIV and fertility relationships, with less HIV-associated subfertility in Southern Africa. Age patterns of relative fertility are similar. HIV impact on fertility is weaker in urban than rural areas. For women below age 30, regional and urban/rural differences are largely explained by differences in age at sexual debut. Higher levels of national ART coverage were associated with slight attenuation of the relationship between HIV and fertility. Conclusions Regional differences in HIV-associated subfertility and urban–rural differences in age patterns of relative fertility should be accounted for when predicting need for and coverage of PMTCT services at national and subnational level. Although HIV impacts on fertility are somewhat reduced at higher levels of national ART coverage, differences in fertility between HIV positive and negative remain, and fertility of women on ART should not be assumed to be the same as HIV-negative women. There were few data in recent years, when ART has reached high levels, and this relationship should continue to be assessed as further evidence becomes available

Validating child vaccination status in a demographic surveillance system using data from a clinical cohort study: evidence from rural South Africa

<p><b>Background:</b> Childhood vaccination coverage can be estimated from a range of sources. This study aims to validate vaccination data from a longitudinal population-based demographic surveillance system (DSS) against data from a clinical cohort study.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> The sample includes 821 children in the Vertical Transmission cohort Study (VTS), who were born between December 2001 and April 2005, and were matched to the Africa Centre DSS, in northern KwaZulu-Natal. Vaccination information in the surveillance was collected retrospectively, using standardized questionnaires during bi-annual household visits, when the child was 12 to 23 months of age. DSS vaccination information was based on extraction from a vaccination card or, if the card was not available, on maternal recall. In the VTS, vaccination data was collected at scheduled maternal and child clinic visits when a study nurse administered child vaccinations. We estimated the sensitivity of the surveillance in detecting vaccinations conducted as part of the VTS during these clinic visits.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Vaccination data in matched children in the DSS was based on the vaccination card in about two-thirds of the cases and on maternal recall in about one-third. The sensitivity of the vaccination variables in the surveillance was high for all vaccines based on either information from a South African Road-to-Health (RTH) card (0.94-0.97) or maternal recall (0.94-0.98). Addition of maternal recall to the RTH card information had little effect on the sensitivity of the surveillance variable (0.95-0.97). The estimates of sensitivity did not vary significantly, when we stratified the analyses by maternal antenatal HIV status. Addition of maternal recall of vaccination status of the child to the RTH card information significantly increased the proportion of children known to be vaccinated across all vaccines in the DSS.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> Maternal recall performs well in identifying vaccinated children aged 12-23 months (both in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers), with sensitivity similar to information extracted from vaccination cards. Information based on both maternal recall and vaccination cards should be used if the aim is to use surveillance data to identify children who received a vaccination.</p&gt

The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning