TARGETING LAGGING TERRITORIES WITH EU RURAL SUPPORT POLICY: CASE STUDY IN LATVIA

lagging rural areas, bi-regional CGE model, rural development policy, CAP, Agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

MODELING THE RURAL-URBAN EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL POLICIES: A BI-REGIONAL CGE ANALYSIS OF TWO CASE STUDY REGIONS

The paper uses bi-regional CGE models to analyse the effects of a change in agricultural support on two (very different) case study regions, one within Scotland, the other in Greece. Both regions are predominantly rural in nature but contain an urban centre as well as a rural hinterland. The results show qualitative and quantitative differences in the total effects in both regions as well as differences in the distribution of effects between their rural and urban parts. In particular, the negative effects of a reduction in price support are contained within rural primary sectors in the Scottish region: nonfarm rural sectors and urban sectors all benefit from the policy shock. In contrast, the negative impacts of a reduction in price support are more widely spread in the Greek region, with losers in both the urban and rural areas. These result are attributed to the stronger links between agriculture and first stage processing sectors in the Greek study area and also the ownership of agricultural factors by urban residents. Full decoupling at the regional level is shown to have negative aggregate effects in both study regions, driven by the high import intensity of household commodities. Again however there are gainers as well as losers from the policy shock suggesting a case for spatially and sectorally targeted support to alleviate the potentially negative effects of CAP reform at a regional level.Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and the Wage Distribution: A CGE Analysis of Three EU Regions

The paper uses a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects of immigration on three small remote EU regions located within Scotland, Greece and Latvia. Two migration scenarios are assessed. In the first, total labour supply is affected. In the second, the importance of migratory flows by differential labour skill types is investigated. The results indicate significant differences in the extent to which regional economies are affected by immigration. They also suggest that remote regions are highly vulnerable to the out-migration of skilled workers ('brain-drain') while the in-migration of unskilled workers leads to widening wage inequality.immigration, CGE, skills, wage inequality, brain-drain, regional economies

Building a Typology of European Rural Areas for the Spatial Impact Assessment of Policies (TERA-SIAP)

Within the TERA-SIAP project, we developed a set of regional typologies (at NUTS3 level) which provide a suitable basis for Spatial Impact Assessments of a range of current and possible kinds of intervention (Generic Policy Issues) for rural areas. From a range of socio-economic models, we selected Regional Input-Output Models for the Spatial Impact Assessment of two Axis 3 measures (diversification of rural economy, and renovation and development of villages). One of the seven typologies developed, which focused on economic diversification, was used to identify a set of representative case study regions. The modelling results for the 16 case regions illustrated the fact that different types of rural economies are clearly associated with different patterns of policy impacts and that typologies can assist in the choice of appropriate representative regions. The combination of typologies and models are shown to have the potential to enhance the capacity for quantitative Spatial Impact Assessment of rural policy.JRC.DDG.J.5-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

An Ex-ante Rural/Urban Analysis of Common Agricultural Policy Options

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and the Wage Distribution: A CGE Analysis of Three EU Regions

The paper uses a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects of immigration on three small remote EU regions located within Scotland, Greece and Latvia. Two migration scenarios are assessed. In the first, total labour supply is affected. In the second, the importance of migratory flows by differential labour skill types is investigated. The results indicate significant differences in the extent to which regional economies are affected by immigration. They also suggest that remote regions are highly vulnerable to the out-migration of skilled workers (‘brain-drain’) while the in-migration of unskilled workers leads to widening wage inequality

Ex-ante Spatial Policy Impact Analysis of the Rural Development policy in European Rural Areas (RURAL ECMOD)

The present study aims at modelling the impact of different CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) scenarios on 6 case study regional economies. The starting point is the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) obtained through a combination of mechanical downscaling of higher level input-output data with superior data, followed by a balancing procedure. A number of key elements facilitate the simulation of the policy scenarios: disaggregation of agricultural sector by farm size and the rural-urban disaggregation of activities and households. Policy scenarios focus on the impacts of relatively major changes in agricultural and rural policy (change in the balance between CAP pillars 1 and 2 or redistribution of funding within CAP pillar 2 – rural development policy). Models used are recursive dynamic CGE models, solved one year at a time, over the period 2006 to 2020. Policy measures are modelled on the base of RDP spending mapped for each region into investments in specific SAM sectors Economy wide effects of all scenarios remain limited, but slightly more important and significant when looking at the specifically rural economy. On the base of a limited number of case study areas, it seems that diversification policy mixes for rural development are in all cases beneficial to rural economies, while policy mixes focusing on agriculture competitiveness and public goods is only economically beneficial at short term and in rural, peripheral and agriculture-centred areas.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Modelling the Effects of Trade Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality in Greek Agriculture: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach. CEPS ENARPRI Working Papers No. 14, 1 September 2005

This paper presents a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model for conducting an assessment on the potential impacts of trade agreements on several multifunctionality indicators in Greek agriculture. More specifically, two SAM models were constructed, one for Greece and one for local economy of Archanes (Crete), an agriculturally dependent NUTS IV area, which has demonstrated a noticeable record in terms of the implementation of Pillar 2 policies. Along these lines, five alternative scenarios were specified with regards to anticipated EU policy reactions under different future outcomes of the Doha round negotiations

STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN RURAL/URBAN AREAS IN GREECE: AN INTERREGIONAL SAM ANALYSIS

A three-area, interregional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model is used to assess the effects of structural policies implemented in the rural town of Archanes (Crete, Southern Greece) during the 1990s, in terms of changes in the structure of the local economy, the extent of economic impacts and their diffusion patterns to adjacent rural and urban localities. Structural changes within a time span of 10 years are estimated using a causative matrix approach, while structural decomposition analysis provides an indication of the attribution of local output growth to changes in the economic structure or final demand. Results reveal that final demand effects on gross production were more important than changes in technical coefficients. Structural policy injections was responsible for around 20.3% of gross production change in Archanes during this period. Also, structural policy specific impacts seem to be quite different, as CAP support measures are associated with comparatively high output and household income benefits for Heraklion and high output and employment benefits for N. Kazantzakis. In contrast, development measures are more successful in generating firm and household incomes in Heraklion and firm income and employment in N. Kazantzakis