Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Phenotypic and genotypic monitoring of Schistosoma mansoni in Tanzanian schoolchildren five years into a preventative chemotherapy national control programme

We conducted combined in vitro PZQ efficacy testing with population genetic analyses of S. mansoni collected from children from two schools in 2010, five years after the introduction of a National Control Programme. Children at one school had received four annual PZQ treatments and the other school had received two mass treatments in total. We compared genetic differentiation, indices of genetic diversity, and estimated adult worm burden from parasites collected in 2010 with samples collected in 2005 (before the control programme began) and in 2006 (six months after the first PZQ treatment). Using 2010 larval samples, we also compared the genetic similarity of those with high and low in vitro sensitivity to PZQ

The Paramount Importance of Renal Function in Heart Failure Prognosis - Conclusions from the REFERENCE study

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The Impact of Low Blood Pressure in Heart Failure Outcome - Results from the REFERENCE study

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Disruption of balance of oxidative stress-associated angiogenesis in heart failure

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Is Bundle Branch Block useful in Heart Failure Risk Stratification? - Disclosures from the REFERENCE study

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Neglected hematological parameters in heart failure prognosis – Disclosures from the REFERENCE study

Aims: In heart failure patients, anemia and iron deficiency are predictors of poor outcome. We studied the association of anemia, iron deficiency and related hematological parameters with short-term rehospitalization, short-term all-cause mortality and end of follow-up all-cause mortality in heart failure patients. Material and Methods: Anemia, iron deficiency, red cell distribution width and erythropoietin were assessed in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure. Univariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the relationship between variables and outcomes. Results: 65 patients were followed for a median of 13.7 (Q1-Q3 6.7-18.9) months. Mean age was 79.2 (SD 10.8) years. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 50.38 ± 19.07 %. Variables associated with an increased risk for short-term rehospitalization were red cell distribution width (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.16- 1.58), anemia (HR 3.81; 95% CI 1.29-11.28) and anemia with iron deficiency (HR 3.50; 95% CI 1.30-9.38). Increased risk for short-term mortality was associated with red cell distribution width (HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.29-2.59), erythropoietin (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.04-1.82), absolute iron deficiency (HR 7.22; 95% CI 1.50-34.81) and anemia with iron deficiency (HR 4.48; 95% CI 1.26-15.88). Variables associated with increased risk for end of follow-up mortality were red cell distribution width (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.12-1.54) and erythropoietin (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.49). Conclusions: Conclusions: Anemia and red cell distribution width correlated with higher risk for short-term rehospitalization. Absolute iron deficiency, red cell distribution width and erythropoietin were associated with higher risk for short-term mortality. Red cell distribution width and erythropoietin were associated with higher risk for end of follow-up mortality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio