Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.Comment: 14 pages, revised version to appear in the Proceedings of the QI2013 (Quantum Interactions) conferenc

Eigenlogic: a Quantum View for Multiple-Valued and Fuzzy Systems

We propose a matrix model for two- and many-valued logic using families of observables in Hilbert space, the eigenvalues give the truth values of logical propositions where the atomic input proposition cases are represented by the respective eigenvectors. For binary logic using the truth values {0,1} logical observables are pairwise commuting projectors. For the truth values {+1,-1} the operator system is formally equivalent to that of a composite spin 1/2 system, the logical observables being isometries belonging to the Pauli group. Also in this approach fuzzy logic arises naturally when considering non-eigenvectors. The fuzzy membership function is obtained by the quantum mean value of the logical projector observable and turns out to be a probability measure in agreement with recent quantum cognition models. The analogy of many-valued logic with quantum angular momentum is then established. Logical observables for three-value logic are formulated as functions of the Lz observable of the orbital angular momentum l=1. The representative 3-valued 2-argument logical observables for the Min and Max connectives are explicitly obtained.Comment: 11 pages, 2 table

A mediation approach to understanding socio-economic inequalities in maternal health-seeking behaviours in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: The levels and origins of socio-economic inequalities in health-seeking behaviours in Egypt are poorly understood. This paper assesses the levels of health-seeking behaviours related to maternal care (antenatal care [ANC] and facility delivery) and their accumulation during pregnancy and childbirth. Secondly, it explores the mechanisms underlying the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and maternal health-seeking behaviours. Thirdly, it examines the effectiveness of targeting of free public ANC and delivery care. METHODS: Data from the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey were used to capture two latent constructs of SEP: individual socio-cultural capital and household-level economic capital. These variables were entered into an adjusted mediation model, predicting twelve dimensions of maternal health-seeking; including any ANC, private ANC, first ANC visit in first trimester, regular ANC (four or more visits during pregnancy), facility delivery, and private delivery. ANC and delivery care costs were examined separately by provider type (public or private). RESULTS: While 74.2% of women with a birth in the 5-year recall period obtained any ANC and 72.4% delivered in a facility, only 48.8% obtained the complete maternal care package (timely and regular facility-based ANC as well as facility delivery) for their most recent live birth. Both socio-cultural capital and economic capital were independently positively associated with receiving any ANC and delivering in a facility. The strongest direct effect of socio-cultural capital was seen in models predicting private provider use of both ANC and delivery. Despite substantial proportions of women using public providers reporting receipt of free care (ANC: 38%, delivery: 24%), this free-of-charge public care was not effectively targeted to women with lowest economic resources. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-cultural capital is the primary mechanism leading to inequalities in maternal health-seeking in Egypt. Future studies should therefore examine the objective and perceived quality of care from different types of providers. Improvements in the targeting of free public care could help reduce the existing SEP-based inequalities in maternal care coverage in the short term

Transit Timing and Duration Variations for the Discovery and Characterization of Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets in multi-planet systems have non-Keplerian orbits which can cause the times and durations of transits to vary. The theory and observations of transit timing variations (TTV) and transit duration variations (TDV) are reviewed. Since the last review, the Kepler spacecraft has detected several hundred perturbed planets. In a few cases, these data have been used to discover additional planets, similar to the historical discovery of Neptune in our own Solar System. However, the more impactful aspect of TTV and TDV studies has been characterization of planetary systems in which multiple planets transit. After addressing the equations of motion and parameter scalings, the main dynamical mechanisms for TTV and TDV are described, with citations to the observational literature for real examples. We describe parameter constraints, particularly the origin of the mass/eccentricity degeneracy and how it is overcome by the high-frequency component of the signal. On the observational side, derivation of timing precision and introduction to the timing diagram are given. Science results are reviewed, with an emphasis on mass measurements of transiting sub-Neptunes and super-Earths, from which bulk compositions may be inferred.Comment: Revised version. Invited review submitted to 'Handbook of Exoplanets,' Exoplanet Discovery Methods section, Springer Reference Works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Eds. TeX and figures may be found at https://github.com/ericagol/TTV_revie

Numerical and experimental analysis of wrinkling during the cup drawing of an AA5042 aluminium alloy

The recent trend to reduce the thickness of metallic sheets used in forming processes strongly increases the likelihood of the occurrence of wrinkling. Thus, in order to obtain defect-free components, the prediction of this kind of defect becomes extremely important in the tool design and selection of process parameters. In this study, the sheet metal forming process proposed as a benchmark in the Numisheet 2014 conference is selected to analyse the influence of the tool geometry on wrinkling behaviour, as well as the reliability of the developed numerical model. The side-wall wrinkling during the deep drawing process of a cylindrical cup in AA5042 aluminium alloy is investigated through finite element simulation and experimental measurements. The material plastic anisotropy is modelled with an advanced yield criterion beyond the isotropic (von Mises) material behaviour. The results show that the shape of the wrinkles predicted by the numerical model is strongly affected by the finite element mesh used in the blank discretization. The accurate modelling of the plastic anisotropy of the aluminium alloy yields numerical results that are in good agreement with the experiments, particularly the shape and location of the wrinkles. The predicted punch force evolution is strongly influenced by the friction coefficient used in the model. Moreover, the two punch geometries provide drawn cups with different wrinkle waves, mainly differing in amplitude.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under project PTDC/EMS-TEC/1805/2012. The first author is also grateful to the FCT for the Postdoctoral grant SFRH/BPD/101334/2014 and P.D. Barros is grateful to the FCT for the PhD Grant SFRH/BD/98545/2013info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The development and application of a new tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care

Abstract Background: Current measures of antenatal care use are limited to initiation of care and number of visits. This study aimed to describe the development and application of a tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care. Methods: The Content and Timing of care in Pregnancy (CTP) tool was developed based on clinical relevance for ongoing antenatal care and recommendations in national and international guidelines. The tool reflects minimal care recommended in every pregnancy, regardless of parity or risk status. CTP measures timing of initiation of care, content of care (number of blood pressure readings, blood tests and ultrasound scans) and whether the interventions were received at an appropriate time. Antenatal care trajectories for 333 pregnant women were then described using a standard tool (the APNCU index), that measures the quantity of care only, and the new CTP tool. Both tools categorise care into 4 categories, from ‘Inadequate’ (both tools) to ‘Adequate plus’ (APNCU) or ‘Appropriate’ (CTP). Participants recorded the timing and content of their antenatal care prospectively using diaries. Analysis included an examination of similarities and differences in categorisation of care episodes between the tools. Results: According to the CTP tool, the care trajectory of 10,2% of the women was classified as inadequate, 8,4% as intermediate, 36% as sufficient and 45,3% as appropriate. The assessment of quality of care differed significantly between the two tools. Seventeen care trajectories classified as ‘Adequate’ or ‘Adequate plus’ by the APNCU were deemed ‘Inadequate’ by the CTP. This suggests that, despite a high number of visits, these women did not receive the minimal recommended content and timing of care. Conclusions: The CTP tool provides a more detailed assessment of the adequacy of antenatal care than the current standard index. However, guidelines for the content of antenatal care vary, and the tool does not at the moment grade over-use of interventions as ‘Inappropriate’. Further work needs to be done to refine the content items prior to larger scale testing of the impact of the new measure

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Genome of the Avirulent Human-Infective Trypanosome—Trypanosoma rangeli

Background: Trypanosoma rangeli is a hemoflagellate protozoan parasite infecting humans and other wild and domestic mammals across Central and South America. It does not cause human disease, but it can be mistaken for the etiologic agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi. We have sequenced the T. rangeli genome to provide new tools for elucidating the distinct and intriguing biology of this species and the key pathways related to interaction with its arthropod and mammalian hosts.  Methodology/Principal Findings: The T. rangeli haploid genome is ,24 Mb in length, and is the smallest and least repetitive trypanosomatid genome sequenced thus far. This parasite genome has shorter subtelomeric sequences compared to those of T. cruzi and T. brucei; displays intraspecific karyotype variability and lacks minichromosomes. Of the predicted 7,613 protein coding sequences, functional annotations could be determined for 2,415, while 5,043 are hypothetical proteins, some with evidence of protein expression. 7,101 genes (93%) are shared with other trypanosomatids that infect humans. An ortholog of the dcl2 gene involved in the T. brucei RNAi pathway was found in T. rangeli, but the RNAi machinery is non-functional since the other genes in this pathway are pseudogenized. T. rangeli is highly susceptible to oxidative stress, a phenotype that may be explained by a smaller number of anti-oxidant defense enzymes and heatshock proteins.  Conclusions/Significance: Phylogenetic comparison of nuclear and mitochondrial genes indicates that T. rangeli and T. cruzi are equidistant from T. brucei. In addition to revealing new aspects of trypanosome co-evolution within the vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, comparative genomic analysis with pathogenic trypanosomatids provides valuable new information that can be further explored with the aim of developing better diagnostic tools and/or therapeutic targets

Mitochondria are the main source and one of the targets of Pb (lead)-induced oxidative stress in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is a useful model organism for studying lead (Pb) toxicity. Yeast cells of a laboratory S. cerevisiae strain (WT strain) were incubated with Pb concentrations up to 1,000 μmol/l for 3 h. Cells exposed to Pb lost proliferation capacity without damage to the cell membrane, and they accumulated intracellular superoxide anion (O2 .−) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). The involvement of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) induced by Pb was evaluated. For this purpose, an isogenic derivative ρ0 strain, lacking mitochondrial DNA, was used. The ρ0 strain, without respiratory competence, displayed a lower intracellular ROS accumulation and a higher resistance to Pb compared to the WT strain. The kinetic study of ROS generation in yeast cells exposed to Pb showed that the production of O2 .− precedes the accumulation of H2O2, which is compatible with the leakage of electrons from the mitochondrial ETC. Yeast cells exposed to Pb displayed mutations at the mitochondrial DNA level. This is most likely a consequence of oxidative stress. In conclusion, mitochondria are an important source of Pb-induced ROS and, simultaneously, one of the targets of its toxicity.The authors thank the FCT Strategic Project PEst-OE/EQB/LA0023/2013

The behaviour of repeat visitors to museums: Review and empirical findings

This study presents a theoretical and operational framework for analysing repeat visit to museums. Starting from the literature on repeat visit in tourism, the specificities of these cultural attractions are made explicit through a review of theoretical and applied works. Consistently with previous contributors, the paper suggests that the analysis of actual past behaviours has to be preferred to the one of attitudes. The application of proper econometric models is also remarked in order to put into account individual profiles. Information coming from three techniques is then used in an integrated way in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the phenomenon. Evidence from an ad hoc survey suggests the necessity to give a greater attention to perceived cultural value during the visit, promoting cultural events during the week and addressed to children, and taking care of those visitors that come from far places also through an integrated tourist supply. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht