Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework

Observations are increasingly used to constrain multi-model projections for future climate assessments. This study assesses the performance of five constraining methods, which have previously been applied to attempt to improve regional climate projections from CMIP5-era models. We employ an out-of-sample testing approach to assess the efficacy of these constraining methods when applied to “pseudo-observational” datasets to constrain future changes in the European climate. These pseudo-observations are taken from CMIP6 simulations, for which future changes were withheld and used for verification. The constrained projections are more accurate and broadly more reliable for regional temperature projections compared to the unconstrained projections, especially in the summer season, which was not clear prior to this study. However, the constraining methods do not improve regional precipitation projections. We also analysed the performance of multi-method projections by combining the constrained projections, which are found to be competitive with the best-performing individual methods and demonstrate improvements in reliability for some temperature projections. The performance of the multi-method projection highlights the potential of combining constraints for the development of constraining methods

Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework

Observations are increasingly used to constrain multi-model projections for future climate assessments. This study assesses the performance of five constraining methods, which have previously been applied to attempt to improve regional climate projections from CMIP5-era models. We employ an out-of-sample testing approach to assess the efficacy of these constraining methods when applied to “pseudo-observational” datasets to constrain future changes in European climate. These pseudo-observations are taken from CMIP6 simulations, for which future changes were withheld and used for verification. The constrained projections are more accurate and broadly more reliable for regional temperature projections compared to the unconstrained projections, especially in the summer season, which was not clear prior to this study. However, the constraining methods do not improve regional precipitation projections. We also analysed the performance of multi-method projections, by combining the constrained projections, which are found to be competitive with the best performing individual methods and demonstrate improvements in reliability for some temperature projections. The performance of the multi-method projection highlights the potential of combining constraints for the development of constraining methods

Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

AbstractPolitical decisions, adaptation planning, and impact assessments need reliable estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different approaches to constrain, filter, or weight climate model projections into probabilistic distributions have been proposed. However, an assessment of multiple such methods to, for example, expose cases of agreement or disagreement, is often hindered by a lack of coordination, with methods focusing on a variety of variables, time periods, regions, or model pools. Here, a consistent framework is developed to allow a quantitative comparison of eight different methods; focus is given to summer temperature and precipitation change in three spatial regimes in Europe in 2041–60 relative to 1995–2014. The analysis draws on projections from several large ensembles, the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, and perturbed physics ensembles, all using the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. The methods’ key features are summarized, assumptions are discussed, and resulting constrained distributions are presented. Method agreement is found to be dependent on the investigated region but is generally higher for median changes than for the uncertainty ranges. This study, therefore, highlights the importance of providing clear context about how different methods affect the assessed uncertainty—in particular, the upper and lower percentiles that are of interest to risk-averse stakeholders. The comparison also exposes cases in which diverse lines of evidence lead to diverging constraints; additional work is needed to understand how the underlying differences between methods lead to such disagreements and to provide clear guidance to users.</jats:p

Climate Warming and Past and Present Distribution of the Processionary Moths (Thaumetopoea spp.) in Europe, Asia Minor and North Africa

International audiencePine processionary moth, Thaumetopea pityocampa, is a model insect indicator of global warming, the northwards and upwards range expansion of this Mediterranean species being directly associated with the recent warming up. The knowledge about the drivers of moth expansion is synthesized. A first standardized mapping of the northern expansion edge, from Western Europe to Turkey, is presented, then detailed for 20 countries of Europe, Asia Minor and North Africa, including future trends. Additional data about the responses of the other Thaumetopoea species are given. Finally, the chapter points out the importance of the man-mediated introductions in the expansion process

Climate Warming and Past and Present Distribution of the Processionary Moths (Thaumetopoea spp.) in Europe, Asia Minor and North Africa

International audiencePine processionary moth, Thaumetopea pityocampa, is a model insect indicator of global warming, the northwards and upwards range expansion of this Mediterranean species being directly associated with the recent warming up. The knowledge about the drivers of moth expansion is synthesized. A first standardized mapping of the northern expansion edge, from Western Europe to Turkey, is presented, then detailed for 20 countries of Europe, Asia Minor and North Africa, including future trends. Additional data about the responses of the other Thaumetopoea species are given. Finally, the chapter points out the importance of the man-mediated introductions in the expansion process

Emergency department outcome of elderly patients assisted by professional home services, the EPIGER study

Abstract Background For the elderly population living at home, the implementation of professional services tends to mitigate the effect of loss of autonomy and increases their quality of life. While helping in avoiding social isolation, home services could also be associated to different healthcare pathways. For elderly patients, Emergency Departments (EDs) are the main entrance to hospital where previous loss of autonomy is associated to worst hospital outcomes. Part of elderly patients visiting EDs are still admitted to hospital for having difficulties coping at home without presenting any acute medical issue. There is a lack of data concerning elderly patients visiting EDs assisted by home services. Our aim was to compare among elderly patients visiting ED those assisted by professional home services to those who do not in terms of emergency resources’ use and patients’ outcome. Methods A multicenter, prospective cohort study was performed in 124 French EDs during a 24-h period on March 2016.Consecutive patients living at home aged ≥80 years were included. The primary objective was to assess the risk of mortality for patients assisted by professional home services vs. those who were not. Secondary objectives included admission rate and specific admission rate for “having difficulties coping at home”. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to test the association between professional home services and the primary endpoint. Multi variables logistic regressions were performed to assess secondary endpoints. Results One thousand one hundred sixty-eight patients were included, median age 86(83–89) years old,32% were assisted by professional home services. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 7%. Assisted patients had more investigations performed. Home services were not associated with increased in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.34;95%CI [0.68–2.67]), nor with the admission rate (OR = 0.92;95%CI [0.65–1.30]). Assisted patients had a lower risk of being admitted for “having difficulties coping at home” (OR = 0.59;95%CI [0.38–0.92]). Conclusion Professional home services which assist one-third of elderly patients visiting EDs, were not associated to lower in-hospital mortality or to an increased admission rate. Assisted patients were associated to a lower risk of being admitted for «having difficulties coping at home».Professional home services could result in avoiding some admissions and their corollary complications. Trial registration Clinicaltrial.gov - NCT02900391, 09/14/2016, retrospectively registered </jats:sec

The genetic landscape and clinical spectrum of nephronophthisis and related ciliopathies

International audienc

Ancient origin of an urban underground mosquito

International audienceAbstract Understanding how life is adapting to urban environments represents an important challenge in evolutionary biology. Here we investigate a widely cited example of urban adaptation, Culex pipiens form molestus , also known as the London Underground Mosquito. Population genomic analysis of ∼350 contemporary and historical samples counter the popular hypothesis that molestus originated belowground in London less than 200 years ago. Instead, we show that molestus first adapted to human environments aboveground in the Middle East over the course of &gt;1000 years, likely in concert with the rise of agricultural civilizations. Our results highlight the role of early human society in priming taxa for contemporary urban evolution and have important implications for understanding arbovirus transmission