Assessment of future climate change impacts on hydrological behavior of Richmond River Catchment

This study evaluated the impacts of future climate change on the hydrological response of the Richmond River Catchment in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using the conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling approach (the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model). Daily observations of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow and long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration from the meteorological and hydrological stations within the catchment for the period of 1972–2014 were used to run, calibrate, and validate the HBV model prior to the streamflow prediction. Future climate signals of rainfall and temperature were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of seven global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) with three regional climate scenarios, A2, A1B, and B1. The calibrated HBV model was then forced with the ensemble mean of the downscaled daily rainfall and temperature to simulate daily future runoff at the catchment outlet for the early part (2016–2043), middle part (2044–2071), and late part (2072–2099) of the 21st century. All scenarios during the future periods present decreasing tendencies in the annual mean streamflow ranging between 1% and 24.3% as compared with the observed period. For the maximum and minimum flows, all scenarios during the early, middle, and late parts of the century revealed significant declining tendencies in the annual mean maximum and minimum streamflows, ranging between 30% and 44.4% relative to the observed period. These findings can assist the water managers and the community of the Richmond River Catchment in managing the usage of future water resources in a more sustainable way

A national assessment of the sensitivity of Australian runoff to climate change

The relationship between catchment rainfall, evapotranspiration and runoff can be exploited to assess climate risk to water resources. National data regarding climatology and runoff were used to estimate the sensitivity of regional runoff to projected changes in precipitation and evaporation. These sensitivity factors were integrated with patterns of climate change from 12 different global climate model (GCM) simulations to project future annual runoff sensitivity per degree of global mean temperature change. Divergent runoff sensitivities were identified depending upon the selected GCM. Averaging among GCMs resulted in a robust pattern of runoff sensitivity suitable for estimating future climate risk

Applying social resilience concepts and indicators to support climate adaptation in tropical North Queensland, Australia

Regional and remote communities in Tropical North Queensland (TNQ) are among Australia's most vulnerable in the face of climate change. They face sea-level rise, more intense dry spells, increasing temperatures, more extensive coral bleaching and the risk of more intense cyclones and floods. Consequently, sociologically and economically diverse subregions such as the Northern Gulf of Carpentaria, the Torres Strait, Cape York Peninsula and the Wet Tropics face an uncertain future. Together, these four subregions represent a social diversity typical across the tropics. With its cultural and social complexity, Queensland's tropics present an ideal case study for operationalising an indicators-based approach for building regional and subregional-scale resilience. The assessment of social resilience in the four TNQ subregions has reinforced the theoretical conclusion that a purist approach to measuring and monitoring social resilience, driven by defining and populating perfect sets of indicators, is neither practical nor feasible