On the Potential Use of Adaptive Control Methods for Improving Adaptive Natural Resource Management

The paradigm of adaptive natural resource management (AM), in which experiments are used to learn about uncertain aspects of natural systems, is gaining prominence as the preferred technique for administration of large-scale environmental projects. To date, however, tools consistent with economic theory have yet to be used to either evaluate AM strategies or improve decision-making in this framework. Adaptive control (AC) techniques provide such an opportunity. This paper demonstrates the conceptual link between AC methods, the alternative treatment of realized information during a planning horizon, and AM practices; shows how the different assumptions about the treatment of observational information can be represented through alternative dynamic programming model structures; and provides a means of valuing alternative treatments of information and augmenting traditional benefit-cost analysis through a decomposition of the value function. The AC approach has considerable potential to help managers prioritize experiments, plan AM programs, simulate potential AM paths, and justify decisions based on an objective valuation framework.adaptive control, adaptive management, dynamic programming, value of experimentation, value of information, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Multi-Sector Sustainability in Agroecosystem Environments: Using Value Function Iteration for Numerical Solutions

Using the numerical technique of value iteration, this paper imposes several sustainability constraints on a simple multi-sector agroecosystem model, and provides analysis of the costs tradeoffs within and between generations. Results show that internalization of a stock externality is insufficient for intergenerationally equitable welfare paths, while sustaining a physical resource over time in the interests of equitability can result in a less equitable distribution of welfare across generations. Furthermore, a value sustainability constraint imposed on the social welfare maximization problem acts as a welfare transfer mechanism from the productive sector to the sector affected by the externality, but implies growth in profits for the productive sector and declining utility for the non-productive sector.Environmental Economics and Policy,

New safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

The aviation and space domains have safety guidelines and recommended practices for Design Organisations (DOs) and Operators alike. In terms of Aerospace DOs there are certification criteria to meet and to demonstrate compliance there are Advisory Circulars or Acceptable Means of Compliance to follow. Additionally there are guidelines such as Aerospace Recommended Practices (ARP), Military Standards (MIL-STD 882 series) and System Safety Handbooks to follow in order to identify and manage failure conditions. In terms of Operators there are FAA guidelines and a useful ARP that details many tools and techniques in understanding Operator Safety Risks. However there is currently no methodology for linking the DO and Operator safety efforts. In the space domain NASA have provided safety standards and guidelines to follow and also within Europe there are European Co-operation of Space Standardization (ECSS) to follow. Within the emerging Commercial Human Spaceflight Industry, the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation has provided hazard analysis guidelines. However all of these space domain safety documents are based on the existing aerospace methodology and once again, there is no link between the DO and Operator’s safety effort. This paper addresses the problematic issue and presents a coherent methodology of joining up the System Safety effort of the DOs to the Operator Safety Risk Management such that a ‘Total System’ approach is adopted. Part of the rationale is that the correct mitigation (control) can be applied within the correct place in the accident sequence. Also this contiguous approach ensures that the Operator is fully aware of the safety risks (at the accident level) and therefore has an appreciation of the Total System Risk. The authors of this paper contend that it is better practice to have a fully integrated safety model as opposed to disparate requirements or guidelines. Our methodology is firstly to review ‘best practice’ approaches from the aviation and space industries, and then to integrate these approaches into a contiguous safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

Direct Marketing of Fresh Produce: Understanding Consumer Purchasing Decisions

Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, Q13,

CMBFAST for spatially closed universes

We extend the cosmological linear perturbation theory code CMBFAST to closed geometries. This completes the implementation of CMBFAST to all types of geometries and allows the user to perform an unlimited search in the parameter space of models. This will be specially useful for placing confidence limits on cosmological parameters from existing and future data. We discuss some of the technical issues regarding the implementation.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, new version of CMBFAST can be found http://www.sns.ias.edu/~matiasz/CMBFAST/cmbfast.htm

Shuttle program: OFT ascent/descent ancillary data requirements document

Requirements are presented for the ascent/descent (A/D) navigation and attitude-dependent ancillary data products to be generated for the space shuttle orbiter in support of the orbital flight test (OFT) flight test requirements, MPAD guidance and navigation performance assessment, and the mission evaluation team. The A/D ancillary data support for OFT mission evaluation activities is confined to providing postflight position, velocity, attitude, and associated navigation and attitude derived parameters for the Orbiter over particular flight phases and time intervals

OFT ascent/descent ancillary data requirements document

Requirements are presented for the ascent/descent (A/D) navigation and attitude-dependent ancillary data products to be generated for the space shuttle orbiter in support of orbital flight test requirements, MPAD guidance and navigation performance assessment, and the mission evaluation team. It was intended that this document serve as the sole requirements control instrument between MPB/MPAD and the A/D ancillary data users. The requirements are primarily functional in nature, but some detail level requirements are also included

Geochemical and ecological aspects of lower Frasnian pyrite-ammonoid level at Kostomłoty (Holy Cross Mountains, Poland)

The lower Frasnian (transitans Zone with Ancyrodella priamosica = MN 4 Zone) rhythmic basin succession of marly limestones and shales (upper Szydlówek Beds) at Kostomloty, western Holy CrossMts., Central Poland, contains a record of the transgressive-hypoxic Timan Event in this drowned part of southern Laurussian shelf. The unique facies consists of organic-rich marly shales and a distinctive pyritic, goniatite level, 1.6m thick. The faunal assemblage is dominated by pyritized shells of diminutivemollusks with cephalopods (including goniatites Epitornoceras and Acanthoclymenia), buchioline bivalves (Glyptohallicardia) and styliolinids. This interval is marked by moderately low Th/U ratios and pyrite framboid size distributions suggestive of dysoxic rather than permanent euxinic conditions. The scarcity of infauna and bioturbation resulted in finely laminated sedimentary fabrics, as well as the low diversity of the presumed pioneer benthos (mostly brachiopods). In the topmost part of the Szydlówek Beds, distinguished by the Styliolina coquina interbedded between limestone-biodetrital layers, the above geochemical proxies and C-isotope positive shift indicate a tendency to somewhat increased bottom oxygen deficiency and higher carbon burial rate linked with a bloom of pelagic biota during high-productivity pulse. The geochemical and community changes are a complex regional record of the initial phase of a major perturbation in the earth-ocean system during a phase of intermittently rising sea level in the early to middle Frasnian, and associated with the highest positive C-isotope ratios of the Devonian