Disease mapping of early- and late-stage cancer to monitor inequalities in early detection: a study of cutaneous malignant melanoma

We consider disease mapping of early- and late-stage cancer, in order to identify and monitor inequalities in early detection. Our method is demonstrated by mapping cancer incidence at high geographical resolution using data on 10,302 cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) cases within the 3.7 million population of South-West Sweden. The cases were geocoded into small-areas, each with a population size between 600 and 2600 and accessible socio-demographic data. Using the disease mapping application Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) 4.0, we produced regional maps to visualise spatial variations in stage I, II and III–IV CMM incidences, complemented by local maps to explore the variations within two urban areas. Pronounced spatial disparities in stage I CMM incidence were revealed by the regional and local maps. Stage I CMM incidence was markedly higher in wealthier small-areas, in particular within each urban area. A twofold higher stage I incidence was observed, on average, in the wealthiest small-areas (upper quintile) than in the poorest small-areas (lower quintile). We identified in the regional map of stage III–IV CMM two clusters of higher or lower than expected late-stage incidences which were quite distinct from those identified for stage I. In conclusion, our analysis of CMM incidences supported the use of this method of cancer stage incidence mapping for revealing geographical and socio-demographic disparities in cancer detection

Responsible aquaculture: warm water fish preparation management and preparation of guidelines

Responsible aquaculture is a new concept in Iran but in some countries there are good historical performances. In fact this concept is as the spacial challenge for developing countries in order to improvement of aquaculturist livelihood. In bangladesh, near to 60% of the people, which the most of are villagers, live under the poor line. Developing the NGOs and their activities to reach the responsible aquaculture objectives were so effective, since this activity has been knew as profitable acuaculture and many international workshops, symposiums and conferences have been held in this regard all the world. In this project, a complex of parameters affected on preparing management of warmwater fish farms have been studied with using previous studies and experiments of different countries and executive guidelines of four modules prepared including: -Guidline of preparing of warmwater fish ponds -Guidline of water enrichment and using fertilization in warmwater fish ponds -Guidline of using aeration in warmwater fish ponds -Guidline of stocking method in warmwater fish pond

The association between active participation in a sports club, physical activity and social network on the development of lung cancer in smokers: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study analyses the effect of active participation in a sports club, physical activity and social networks on the development of lung cancer in patients who smoke. Our hypothesis is that study participants who lack social networks and do not actively participate in a sports club are at a greater risk for lung cancer than those who do.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data for the study were taken from the <b>Co</b>logne <b>Smo</b>king <b>S</b>tudy (<b>CoSmoS</b>), a retrospective case-control study examining potential psychosocial risk factors for the development of lung cancer. Our sample consisted of n = 158 participants who had suffered lung cancer (diagnosis in the patient document) and n = 144 control group participants. Both groups had a history of smoking.</p> <p>Data on social networks were collected by asking participants whether they participated in a sports club and about the number of friends and relatives in their social environment. In addition, sociodemographic data (gender, age, education, marital status, residence and religion), physical activity and data on pack years (the cumulative number of cigarettes smoked by an individual, calculated by multiplying the number of cigarettes smoked per day by the number of years the person has smoked divided by 20) were collected to control for potential confounders. Logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results reveal that participants who are physically active are at a lower risk of lung cancer than those who are not (adjusted OR = 0.53*; CI = 0.29-0.97). Older age and lower education seem also to be risk factors for the development of lung cancer. The extent of smoking, furthermore, measured by pack years is statistically significant. Active participation in a sports club, number of friends and relatives had no statistically significant influence on the development of the cancer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of the study suggest that there is a lower risk for physically active participants to develop lung cancer. In the study sample, physical activity seemed to have a greater protective effect than participation in a sports club or social network of friends and relatives. Further studies have to investigate in more detail physical activity and other club participations.</p

Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

BACKGROUND: For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. METHODS: The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. FINDINGS: Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity

Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Background: For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. Methods: The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010–23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. Findings: Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0–8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46–2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57–3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0–14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31–1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63–2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9–6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176–209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141–172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2–107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0–107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6–42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5–25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837–917) in 2010 to 681 million (642–736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6–28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7–61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0–48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6–56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6–22·0) and 24·8% (7·4–36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7–19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18–1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation—with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9–10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories—behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational—risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8–37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0–11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023—eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7–65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3–63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6–72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3–53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [–2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). Interpretation: Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors—eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG—including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic—the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges—will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity

Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050

BackgroundThis study aims to estimate the burden, trends, forecasts, and disparities of early musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders among individuals ages 15 to 39 years. MethodsThe global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs). FindingsMore adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15–19 to 35–39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30–34, rising at least 6-fold by 35–39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA. ConclusionsMultilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15–19 and to OA among individuals ages 30–34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction. FundingThe Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital (2022QN38).This study was produced as part of the GBD Collaborator Network and in accordance with the GBD Protocol (IHME ID: 4241-GBD2019). For GBD studies, a waiver of informed consent was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Washington. The Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital (2022QN38). Y.J. and C.G. were joint first authors who contributed equally to the manuscript. L.-s.T. and D.W. were joint senior authors. Y.J., C.G., L.-s.T., and D.W. were writing authors of the manuscript

To return or not return? Predictive factors for return to work in persons with musculoskeletal disorders – prospective studies over a 10-year period

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are a major reason for sick leave and results in individual suffering as well as economical consequences for both the individual and society. It is important to study variables from a multidimensional perspective to predict sustainable return to work (RTW). The overall aim was to identify multidimensional predictors and psychosocial characteristics for RTW in persons with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), over a 10-year period. Study I: Aim: To identify predictive factors for RTW in patients with MSD. Design: Prospective. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=377), were divided into two groups due to sickness certification one year after rehabilitation. The groups were compared with each other regarding predictive factors for RTW using logistic regression analysis. Result: Predictive factors for RTW were gender, age, education, number of sick-listed days before rehabilitation, physical capacity, self-rated pain, self-rated functional capacity and self-rated Quality of Life (QoL). Implication: Identifying predictors for RTW is an essential task for designing a suitable individual rehabilitation. Study II: Aim: To identify multidimensional predictive factors for sustainable RTW in a long-term follow-up study of persons with MSD. Design: Prospective. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=183) were divided into “working full-time” and “sick-listed” groups five and ten years after a rehabilitation program. The groups were compared with each other regarding predictive factors for RTW using stepwise logistic regression. Result: Long-term predictive factors were number of sick-listed days before rehabilitation, age, self-rated pain, life events, gender, physical capacity, self-rated functional capacity, educational level, and light physical labour. Implication: Sustained RTW can be facilitated by early planning of the sick leave period using instruments that take these predictors into account. Study III: Aim: To describe thoughts and feelings of future working life related to RTW in persons who are sick-listed due to MSD and to compare these descriptions with the person’s actual working situation to create predictors for RTW. Design: Prospective and explorative. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=320) answered an open-ended question about thoughts and feelings of their future working life before participating in a rehabilitation program. The answers were analysed using qualitative content analysis. The emerging categories were compared with the persons working situation one, five and ten years after the rehabilitation program using Pearson’s chi-squared test. Result: Three categories; “motivation and optimism”, “limitations to overcome” and “hindrance and hesitation”, and nine subcategories, were defined. Persons in the subcategories driving force, new possibilities and demand another job had changed job. Those in the reduced work-time subcategory were working part-time after a five-year period. Implication: Persons with a motivation for RTW and those expressing some kind of hindrance should have different types of support. Study IV: Aim: To compare psychosocial factors between healthy and sick-listed persons, both groups with MSD ten years ago. Design: Prospective. Method: Ten years after a rehabilitation program persons aged 18-65 years (n=183) were divided into a healthy group and a sick-listed group. The groups were compared with each other in regards to psychosocial factors using logistic regression analysis and Pearson’s chi-squared test. Result: The healthy group had a higher QoL, more control over the working situation, better sense of coherence (SOC) and more life events. Implication: Using the knowledge about the characteristics of the healthy group, adequate rehabilitation can be given. General conclusion and implications: The focus of this thesis has been on healthy factors for RTW in line with the salutogenic theory. When predicting RTW for persons with MSD we must have a multidimensional perspective and physical, psychosocial and occupational factors must be considered. The instruments in this thesis can be used to predict RTW. Taking all dimensions and all predictive factors into account, sick leave can be reduced by directing the person to the correct amount rehabilitation, not more and not less. Keywords: Certified sick leave, functional capacity, job strain, motivation, musculoskeletal disorders, pain, physical capacity, qualitative content analysis, quality of life, return to work, sense of coherence, working life ISBN 978-91-628-8061-3 Abstract To return or not return? Predictive factors for return to work in persons with musculoskeletal disorders - prospective factors over a 10-year period Marie Lydell, Sahlgrenska School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Department of Primary Health Care, University of Gothenburg. Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are a major reason for sick leave and results in individual suffering as well as economical consequences for both the individual and society. It is important to study variables from a multidimensional perspective to predict sustainable return to work (RTW). The overall aim was to identify multidimensional predictors and psychosocial characteristics for RTW in persons with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), over a 10-year period. Study I: Aim: To identify predictive factors for RTW in patients with MSD. Design: Prospective. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=377), were divided into two groups due to sickness certification one year after rehabilitation. The groups were compared with each other regarding predictive factors for RTW using logistic regression analysis. Result: Predictive factors for RTW were gender, age, education, number of sick-listed days before rehabilitation, physical capacity, self-rated pain, self-rated functional capacity and self-rated Quality of Life (QoL). Implication: Identifying predictors for RTW is an essential task for designing a suitable individual rehabilitation. Study II: Aim: To identify multidimensional predictive factors for sustainable RTW in a long-term follow-up study of persons with MSD. Design: Prospective. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=183) were divided into “working full-time” and “sick-listed” groups five and ten years after a rehabilitation program. The groups were compared with each other regarding predictive factors for RTW using stepwise logistic regression. Result: Long-term predictive factors were number of sick-listed days before rehabilitation, age, self-rated pain, life events, gender, physical capacity, self-rated functional capacity, educational level, and light physical labour. Implication: Sustained RTW can be facilitated by early planning of the sick leave period using instruments that take these predictors into account. Study III: Aim: To describe thoughts and feelings of future working life related to RTW in persons who are sick-listed due to MSD and to compare these descriptions with the person’s actual working situation to create predictors for RTW. Design: Prospective and explorative. Method: Persons aged 18-65 years (n=320) answered an open-ended question about thoughts and feelings of their future working life before participating in a rehabilitation program. The answers were analysed using qualitative content analysis. The emerging categories were compared with the persons working situation one, five and ten years after the rehabilitation program using Pearson’s chi-squared test. Result: Three categories; “motivation and optimism”, “limitations to overcome” and “hindrance and hesitation”, and nine subcategories, were defined. Persons in the subcategories driving force, new possibilities and demand another job had changed job. Those in the reduced work-time subcategory were working part-time after a five-year period. Implication: Persons with a motivation for RTW and those expressing some kind of hindrance should have different types of support. Study IV: Aim: To compare psychosocial factors between healthy and sick-listed persons, both groups with MSD ten years ago. Design: Prospective. Method: Ten years after a rehabilitation program persons aged 18-65 years (n=183) were divided into a healthy group and a sick-listed group. The groups were compared with each other in regards to psychosocial factors using logistic regression analysis and Pearson’s chi-squared test. Result: The healthy group had a higher QoL, more control over the working situation, better sense of coherence (SOC) and more life events. Implication: Using the knowledge about the characteristics of the healthy group, adequate rehabilitation can be given. General conclusion and implications: The focus of this thesis has been on healthy factors for RTW in line with the salutogenic theory. When predicting RTW for persons with MSD we must have a multidimensional perspective and physical, psychosocial and occupational factors must be considered. The instruments in this thesis can be used to predict RTW. Taking all dimensions and all predictive factors into account, sick leave can be reduced by directing the person to the correct amount rehabilitation, not more and not less. Keywords: Certified sick leave, functional capacity, job strain, motivation, musculoskeletal disorders, pain, physical capacity, qualitative content analysis, quality of life, return to work, sense of coherence, working life ISBN 978-91-628-8061-