Reducing Fuel Volatility - An Additional Benefit From Blending Bio-fuels?

Oil price volatility harms economic growth. Diversifying into different fuel types can mitigate this effect by reducing volatility in fuel prices. Producing bio-fuels may thus have additional benefits in terms of avoided damage to macro-economic growth. In this study we investigate trends and patterns in the determinants of a volatility gain in order to provide an estimate of the tendency and the size of the volatility gain in the future. The accumulated avoided loss from blending gasoline with 20 percent ethanol-fuel estimated for the US economy amounts to 795 bn. USD between 2010 and 2019 with growing tendency. An amount that should be considered in cost-benefit analysis of bio-fuels.

Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30-35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.The authors thank Francesco Dalla Longa for his comments, and Brennan Bowman and Sebastien Huclin for their help with regard to data and methodology. This research is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreements No. 642260 (TRANSrisk project) and No. 820846 (Paris Reinforce), and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Dirk-Jan van de Ven and Jon Sampedro acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (ECO2015-68023). Jon Sampedro also acknowledges financial support from the Basque Government (PRE_2018_2_0076). Sha Yu was supported by the Global Technology Strategy Project (GTSP). The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Global wood fuel production estimates and implications

Global wood fuel production can indicate opportunities and also challenges in sustainable development, forest management, and energy access. Estimates of wood fuel removals and charcoal production are essential for tracking global goals yet reliable measurements are rare. We synthesize existing understanding through a mechanistic, conceptual model and build on it to develop statistical models from official statistics and over 2000 newly identified data points. For 2019, we estimate 2525.7 million m3 of wood fuel removals globally, approximately 30% higher than previously understood. Our estimates are 50% higher in Africa and 40% higher in Asia, 10% lower in the Americas and 20% lower in Europe. Global production of wood charcoal is estimated at 70.5 million tonnes, approximately 50% higher than previous values; our estimates are 20% higher in Africa and 200% higher in Asia. These estimates describe global shifts in wood fuel removals and charcoal production and improve our understanding of the forest sector; they will likely underlie global models used to forecast future trends

Fuel from the Savannah: Understanding the Climate Change Impacts of Large-Scale Charcoal Production in Kenya

Kenya consumes 4-7 thousand tons of charcoal per day. Much of Kenya’s charcoal comes from shrubland or savannah. After harvest, this land may be allowed to regenerate, but increasingly charcoal is used as a means to clear land for crop cultivation. This is particularly true in Narok District, one of Kenya’s main charcoal production areas and an increasingly important grain production zone. Land management specifically for charcoal is extremely rare. Charcoal production and use is associated with high greenhouse gas emissions relative to other common energy options. However, there have been few attempts to analyze the land-use change implications associated with different charcoal production systems, This paper uses computer modeling parameterized with empirical data to analyze the carbon dynamics of current charcoal production practices, including changes in stocks of soil and biomass carbon resulting from land cover change linked to charcoal production. On a life cycle basis, the common practice of charcoal production followed by grain cultivation leads to a loss of 40 tC per ha (2.7 tC per ton of charcoal produced). Charcoal production by coppice management of native vegetation releases 3-9 tC per ha over 50 years of management (0.08-0.3 tC per ton of charcoal produced). Charcoal production using a fast growing exotic species (eucalyptus grandis) managed on a 10-year coppice managed cycle results in a net sink of 150 tC per ha (0.5-0.8 tC sequestered per ton of charcoal produced). These results are compared to life cycle emissions from other common household fuels and policy implications are discussed