QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND YIELD IN THE CENTRAL REGION OF INDIA

The present work focuses on estimation of future evapotranspiration of paddy, maize, soybean and assessment of yields of these crops under RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for years 1997-2099 using FAO Cropwat and AquaCrop yield simulating models for the Sehore district, in central state of India. Statistically downscaled General Circulation Model CanESM2 data were used as input to Cropwat and AquaCrop tools for generation of future crop evapotranspiration and crop yield data. The AquaCrop yield model was first checked for its suitability and accuracy in prediction of yield for years 1997-2010. The future scenario RCP 8.5 shows the highest reduction in the yield of paddy (-8.5%), maize (-4.52%), and soybean (-3.93%) during the future period. It was concluded that the FAO AquaCrop model can be applied to many other crops as well as in the other regions to formulate proper cropping strategies that will help to decrease the risks due to future climate change.</jats:p