Markers of Inflammation, Metabolic Risk Factors, and Incident Heart Failure in American Indians: The Strong Heart Study

Inflammation may play a role in increased risk of heart failure (HF) that is associated with obesity, metabolic syndrome (MS), and diabetes. This study investigated associations between inflammatory markers, MS, and incident HF in a population with high prevalence of diabetes, obesity, and MS. The cohort consisted of 3098 American Indians, without prevalent cardiovascular disease who had C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen measured at the SHS Phase II exam. Independent associations between inflammatory markers, MS, and HF were analyzed by Cox hazard models. During mean follow-up of 11 years, 218 participants developed HF. After the adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, fibrinogen, (HR 1.36, 95% C.I.:1.15–1.59) but not CRP, (HR 1.25, 95% C.I.:0.97–1.32) remained significant HF predictor. In individuals without diabetes, concomitant presence of MS and elevated CRP or fibrinogen increased HF risk (for MS and CRP: HR 2.02, 95% C.I.: 0.95–4.31; for CRP and fibrinogen: HR 1.75, 95% C.I.:0.83–3.72). In a population with high prevalence of obesity, MS, and diabetes, elevated CRP and fibrinogen predict increased HF risk. These associations are attenuated by the adjustments for conventional risk factors suggesting that inflammation acts in concert with metabolic and clinical risk factors in increasing HF risk

Cardiotoxicity and cardiovascular disease risk assessment for patients receiving breast cancer treatment

Background: Cardiotoxicity from anticancer therapy affects heart function and structure. Cardiotoxicity can also lead to accelerated development of chronic diseases, especially in the presence of risk factors. Methods: This study aimed to develop and pilot a combined cardiovascular disease and cardiotoxicity risk assessment questionnaire to quantify the potential extent of risk factors in breast cancer patients prior to treatment. The questionnaire underwent content and face validity evaluation by an expert panel followed by pilot testing in a sample of breast cancer patients (n = 36). Questionnaires were self-administered while attending chemotherapy clinic, in the presence of a research assistant. Results: Mean age of participants was 54.8 years (range 36–72 years). Participants reported CVD risk factors including diabetes 2.8%, hypertension 19.8%, hypercholesterolaemia 11% and sleep apnoea 5%. Lifestyle risk factors, included not eating the recommended serves of vegetables (100%) or fruit (78%) per day; smoking (13%) and regularly consuming alcohol (75%). Twenty five percent reported being physically inactive, 61%, overweight or obese, 24%, little or no social support and 30% recorded high to very high psychological distress. Participants were highly (75%) reluctant to undertake lifestyle changes; i.e. changing alcohol consumption; dietary habits; good emotional/mental health strategies; improving physical activity; quitting smoking; learning about heart-health and weight loss. Conclusion: This study is an important step towards prevention and management of treatment-associated cardiotoxicity after breast cancer diagnosis. We recommend that our questionnaire is providing important data that should be included in cancer registries so that researchers can establish the relationship between CVD risk profile and cardiotoxicity outcomes and that this study revealed important teaching opportunities that could be used to examine the impact on health literacy and help patients better understand the consequences of cancer treatment

Combines Work Quality in Maize Silage Production

The paper presents testing results of three silage combines employed in maize silage preparation in Toplica region. It is focused on determination of technical working parameters of tested machines. Achieved results verified the superiority of silage combine John Deere 5820, which produced the chopped mass having particle lengths of the smallest deviation with respect to the preset cutting length. In this case, the average length of chopped mass was 9.9 mm, having 69 % mass in the range up to 8 mm. The other two silage combines produced lower mass percentage of this fraction and larger variations of particle lengths with respect to the preset length. Minimum mass flow rate was evidenced for the silage combine Fortschrit E-286: 7.3 kg s-1 (26.3 t h-1) and the surface productivity of 0.83 ha h-1, at the average speed of 4.0 km h-1. Maximum production rate was achieved with silage combine John Deere 5820: 10.9 kg s-1 (39.1 t h-1) at average working velocity of 4.7 km h-1 and surface efficiency of 1.21 ha h-1

The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis

Origin and spread of human mitochondrial DNA haplogroup U7

Human mitochondrial DNA haplogroup U is among the initial maternal founders in Southwest Asia and Europe and one that best indicates matrilineal genetic continuity between late Pleistocene hunter-gatherer groups and present-day populations of Europe. While most haplogroup U subclades are older than 30 thousand years, the comparatively recent coalescence time of the extant variation of haplogroup U7 (~16–19 thousand years ago) suggests that its current distribution is the consequence of more recent dispersal events, despite its wide geographical range across Europe, the Near East and South Asia. Here we report 267 new U7 mitogenomes that – analysed alongside 100 published ones – enable us to discern at least two distinct temporal phases of dispersal, both of which most likely emanated from the Near East. The earlier one began prior to the Holocene (~11.5 thousand years ago) towards South Asia, while the later dispersal took place more recently towards Mediterranean Europe during the Neolithic (~8 thousand years ago). These findings imply that the carriers of haplogroup U7 spread to South Asia and Europe before the suggested Bronze Age expansion of Indo-European languages from the Pontic-Caspian Steppe region

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact