Unmasking the Theta Method.

The Theta method of forecasting performed particularly well in the M3-competition and is therefore of interest to forecast practitioners. The description of the method given by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) involves several pages of algebraic manipulation and is difficult to comprehend. We show that the method can be expressed much more simply; furthermore we show that the forecasts obtained are equivalent to simple exponential smoothing with drift.exponential smoothing; forecasting competitions; state space models

Multi-View Frame Reconstruction with Conditional GAN

Multi-view frame reconstruction is an important problem particularly when multiple frames are missing and past and future frames within the camera are far apart from the missing ones. Realistic coherent frames can still be reconstructed using corresponding frames from other overlapping cameras. We propose an adversarial approach to learn the spatio-temporal representation of the missing frame using conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN). The conditional input to each cGAN is the preceding or following frames within the camera or the corresponding frames in other overlapping cameras, all of which are merged together using a weighted average. Representations learned from frames within the camera are given more weight compared to the ones learned from other cameras when they are close to the missing frames and vice versa. Experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that our framework produces comparable results with the state-of-the-art reconstruction method in a single camera and achieves promising performance in multi-camera scenario.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, Accepted at IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing, 201

Empirical Information Criteria for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task. We compare the EIC with other model selection criteria including Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms both the AIC and BIC, particularly for longer forecast horizons. We also compare the criteria on simulated data and find that the EIC does better than existing criteria in that case also.Exponential smoothing; forecasting; information criteria; M3 competition; model selection.

Anomalous coercivity enhancement with temperature and tunable exchange bias in Gd and Ti co-doped BiFeO3_3 multiferroics

We have investigated the effect of temperature on magnetic properties of Bi$_{0.9}$Gd$_{0.1}$Fe$_{1-x}$Ti$_x$O$_3$ (x = 0.00-0.20) multiferroic system. Unexpectedly, the coercive fields ($H_{c}$) of this multiferroic system increased with increasing temperature. The coercive fields and remanent magnetization were higher over a wide range of temperatures in sample x = 0.10 i.e. in sample having composition Bi$_{0.9}$Gd$_{0.1}$Fe$_{0.9}$Ti$_{0.1}$O$_3$ than those of x = 0.00 and 0.20 compositions. Therefore, we have carried out temperature dependent magnetization experiments extensively for sample x = 0.10. The magnetic hysteresis loops at different temperatures exhibit an asymmetric shift towards the magnetic field axes which indicate the presence of exchange bias effect in this material system. The hysteresis loops were also carried out at temperatures 150 K and 250 K by cooling down the sample from 300 K in various cooling magnetic fields ($H_{cool}$). The exchange bias field ($H_{EB}$) values increased with $H_{cool}$ and decreased with temperature. The $H_{EB}$ values were tunable by field cooling at temperatures up to 250 K.Comment: 7 page

Analisis materi dakwah dalam Buletin Assalamu’alaikum edisi April 2010 – Mei 2012

Skripsi Karya Muhammad Mu’tashim Billah (091211052) dengan judul Analisis Materi Dakwah dalam Buletin Assalamu’alaikum Edisi April 2010 – Mei 2012, Yang menjadi perumusan masalah dalam skripsi ini yaitu apa saja materi dakwah yang terdapat dalam buletin dakwah Assalamu’alaikum (Edisi April 2010 – Mei 2012) ?. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui materi dakwah dibuletin dakwah Assalamu’alaikum, pada edisi April 2010 sampai Mei 2012. Jenis penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif. Sumber data penelitian berasal dari subyek penelitian yaitu isi dalam buletin tersebut. Tehnik pengumpulan data menggunakan penelitian analisis isi dan dokumentasi. Analisis data dalam penelitian ini adalah dimulai dengan menelaah seluruh data di buletin, diuraikan digambarkan, disajikan, dijabarkan dan disimpulkan. Hasil penelitian menggambarkan buletin Assalamu’alaikum adalah buletin atau terbitan berkala yang diterbitkan oleh instansi RMI Cabang Kendal. Materi dakwah yang banyak muncul dalam bulletin Assalamu’alaikum edisi April 2010 – Mei 2012 adalah materi akhlak, seperti akhlak kepada Allah, adab dalam keseharian, akhlak kepada sesama, akhlak kepada orang tua dan akhlak-akhlak yang lainnya