MAPLES: A general method for the estimation of age profiles from standard demographic surveys (with an application to fertility)

In this paper we present MAPLES (Method for Age Profiles Longitudinal EStimation), a general method for the estimation of age profiles that uses standard micro-level demographic survey data. The aim is to estimate smoothed age profiles and relative risks for time-fixed and time-varying covariates. MAPLES is implemented through a data processing routine and a series of regressions using GAM (Generalized Additive Models). Although the approach has been developed to be applied for living arrangements and fertility, MAPLES may be used for any kind of life event. In fact, it can be applied to every setting in which micro-level data on transitions are available from a large-scale representative survey (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys; Fertility and Family Surveys; Generations and Gender Surveys). MAPLES is a R software package containing a set of commands that can be easily applied and that may constitute a useful tool box for demographers and social scientists. The package is available in the CRAN library http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MAPLES.age profiles, fertility and living arrangements, general additive models, smoothing procedure, transition rates

Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe

This paper addresses the transition to adulthood in developed countries. It reviews the main theories that have been employed in recent years to explain trends in such variables as age ages at leaving home, union formation, first marriage and first birth. The paper then examines the median ages at which women in nine European countries experienced these events and the inter-quartile range within each cohort. The results do not provide unequivocal support for any of the main theories. In conclusion we offer some speculative remarks on what form an alternative theory might take.

Measure and dynamics of marriage squeezes: from baby boom to baby bust in Italy

Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze. Italy provides an interesting case study because since World War II, it has been characterised by alternate periods of declines and rises of the annual number of births an by their differential patterns between regions. In this paper we study the dynamics of the Italian marriage market (year 1969-1995) by using some indexes proposed by Schoen as well as two additional measures. The result of regional analysis also suggest that marriage squeeze has also been by international migratory movements. The recent and prolonged phase of steep fertility decline in Italy, together with the drop of international movements, suggests the possibility of a perspective increasing disadvantage of men in the marriage market. (AUTHORS)

Work lives amid social change and continuity: occupational trajectories in Monterrey, Mexico

In this paper we use sequence analysis to study the occupational trajectories between the ages 14 and 30 for men in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We build typologies of trajectories based on life-history data and then explore changes in the frequency of these ´typical´ trajectories over time as well as differences across socioeconomic groups. Cohort trends reveal more continuities than changes in occupational trajectories, despite the structural changes experienced by the city in the last two decades. Career patterns are closely related to family origins and educational attainment, thus suggesting the continuing importance of both ascribed and attained characteristics on occupational outcomes.

The Younger, the Better? Relative Age Effects at University

In this paper we estimate relative age effects in academic performance using a unique database of students at Bocconi University. The identification exploits school entry cut-off ages that generate up to 11 months difference between the youngest and the oldest students within each cohort. Our data allow to control for potential selection issues as well as for differences in cognitive ability, as measured by an attitudinal entry test. Contrary to most of the existing evidence for primary school children, we document that in university the youngest students perform better compared to their oldest peers, particularly in the most technical subjects. To rationalize this result we produce additional evidence on relative age effects in cognitive ability and in social behavior using a combination of data from Bocconi admission tests and from a survey on the social behavior of Italian first-year university students. We find that the youngest students in the cohort perform slightly better in cognitive tests and also appear to have less active social lives: they are less likely to do sports, go to discos and have love relationships. These results suggest that negative relative age effects in university performance might be generated by two mechanisms: (i) a profile of cognitive development that might be decreasing already around age 20; (ii) psychological relative age effects that lead the youngest in a cohort to develop social skills (self-esteem, leadership) at a slower pace. Younger students, thus, have less active social lives and devote more time to studying, as confirmed by additional evidence from the PISA study.education, relative age

The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?

In this paper we investigate the changing impact of union formation on the transition to parenthood in West Germany and Italy using FFS data. We first draw attention to overall cohort patterns in union formation and first births and then describe the mutual relationships between union formation, first marriage, and first births. On the basis of event-history models, we then evaluate the impact of union formation behaviour on the transition to motherhood. In particular, we test whether the impact of union status has been changing for younger and older cohorts, thereby investigating whether the heterogeneous spread of non-marital childbearing is gaining relevance as we would expect from the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition. The findings from these analyses allow us to conclude that demographic behaviour is not converging from a cohort perspective. (AUTHORS)Germany/FRG, Italy

Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relation between low and lowest-low period fertility on the one, and cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviors---such as leaving the parental home, marriage and female labor force participation---on the other side. First, we identify a systematic pattern of lowest-low fertility that is characterized by a rapid delay of childbearing, a low progression probability after the first child (but not particularly low levels of first-birth childbearing), and a ``falling behind´´ in cohort fertility at relatively late ages. Second, our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between the total fertility level on the one side, and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births and the female labor force participation rate on the other side have reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. At the end of the 1990s there is also no longer evidence that divorce levels are negatively associated with fertility levels. Based on these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s has been accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known patterns that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns.Europe, family formation, fertility

Women´s wages and childbearing decisions: Evidence from Italy

During the early 1990s, Italy became one of the first countries to reach lowest-low fertility. This was also a period in which women´s education and labour force participation increased. We analyze the role of women´s (potential) wages on their fertility decisions by making use of two different surveys. This enables us to apply discrete-time duration models. For first births, we find evidence of non-proportional hazards and of some "recuperation" effects; for second and third births, instead, wage exhibits small intensity although there is a clear division between Northern and Southern Italian regions.childbearing decisions, discrete time duration models, lowest-low fertility

The cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms

We present an agent-based model designed to study the cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms. We review theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the existence of norms proscribing marriage outside of an acceptable age interval. Using a definition of norms as constraints built in agents, we model the transmission of norms, and of mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of norms. Agents can marry each other only if they share part of the acceptable age interval. We perform several simulation experiments on the evolution across generations. In particular, we study the conditions under which norms persist in the long run, the impact of initial conditions, the role of random mutations, and the impact of social influence. Although the agent-based model we use is highly stylized, it gives important insights on the societal-level dynamics of life-course norms.